Can you believe we’re already staring down the final month of 2025?
After everything this year threw at us – a record-breaking government shutdown, inflation that just won’t quit, wars flaring up, and growth slowing in pockets around the globe – the stock market somehow managed to grind higher. The S&P 500 just notched its seventh straight positive month in November, even if it was by the skin of its teeth. The Nasdaq wasn’t so lucky and snapped a long winning streak. Classic late-year volatility, right?
Now December is here, earnings season is winding down, and the calendar feels strangely quiet… except it’s not. This first week of the month is secretly packed with market-moving events dressed up as normal economic releases. I’ve been doing this long enough to know these “quiet” weeks can pack the biggest punches.
The Four Things Actually Worth Watching This Week
Forget the noise. Strip away the hundred daily headlines, and only four stories really have the power to shift sentiment right now. Here’s my take on each – and why I think at least one could catch the market completely off guard.
1. Two Make-or-Break Tech Earnings: CrowdStrike & Salesforce
Tuesday and Wednesday after the bell we get reports from two companies that have become lightning rods for bigger debates in tech.
First up is CrowdStrike. Look, cybersecurity isn’t sexy until your entire company goes dark because of a bad update (ask Delta about that). The Street wants to see annual recurring revenue growth re-accelerate, especially now that their new Falcon Flex pricing model is in the wild. More importantly, I want to hear management talk about agentic AI on the conference call.
Think about it: if AI agents are going to autonomously make decisions inside companies, someone has to protect those agents from being hacked – and protect companies from rogue agents. That feels like a massive tailwind for the entire cyber industry, but especially for the leader. Current consensus sits at 94 cents per share on roughly $1.215 billion in revenue. Anything meaningfully above that, plus confident guidance, could ignite the whole sector.
The age of agentic AI isn’t just changing how we work – it’s changing how we need to defend.
Then Wednesday it’s Salesforce’s turn. This one feels even more consequential. The bear case on software stocks has been simple: generative AI lets companies do more with fewer people, which means fewer seats, which means lower revenue for traditional SaaS giants.
Salesforce’s answer? Agentforce – their own army of AI agents. Early customer wins matter far more than the headline numbers here. Consensus is $2.86 per share on $10.27 billion revenue, but the real question is whether enterprises are actually paying up for Agentforce yet. A strong update could flip the narrative on the entire cloud software complex overnight.
In my experience, when two bellwether tech names report back-to-back, the market tends to extrapolate. Good news from both? Suddenly “AI winners” are back in vogue. Mixed results? The rotation into value/cyclicals probably accelerates.
2. Black Friday Post-Mortem: Are Consumers Still Spending?
Everyone says the consumer is cracking. Everyone has been saying that for two years, mind you, while retail sales kept surprising higher. This weekend was the first real stress test after months of mixed signals.
Early numbers floating around look… okay? Not gangbusters, but not the disaster some feared either. The key for me is where the spending actually happened. Recent surveys showed 82% of Americans still planned to shop the holidays, but four in ten intended to spend less – mostly by cutting back on gifts.
If we see traffic shifted heavily online (Adobe reported Cyber Monday on track for $13 billion+), that’s actually bullish for certain names – think Amazon, Shopify ecosystem plays, payment processors. If physical stores held up better than expected, that’s a huge win for traditional retail and mall REITs that have been left for dead.
- Watch traffic vs. conversion rates carefully
- Discount depth tells you how desperate retailers were
- Average (buy now, pay later) usage is the new credit-card proxy
- Gift card sales matter – they’re deferred revenue
Perhaps the most interesting angle: if lower-income consumers pulled back sharply while high-end held steady, that widens the K-shaped recovery narrative and probably helps luxury over discretionary.
3. Jobs Data in Disarray (Thanks, Government Shutdown)
Normally the November jobs report would have hit Friday and dominated weekend talking heads. Thanks to the longest shutdown in modern history – 43 days and counting – we’re not getting nonfarm payrolls until December 16th. That’s… not ideal.
So Wednesday’s ADP private payrolls number suddenly carries ten times the usual weight. Consensus is around 165k, but recent misses have been brutal. The Fed has made it clear they’re now in “wait-and-see” mode until they get clean labor data again.
A big upside surprise could revive the “no landing” camp and pressure bonds. A downside miss – especially if revisions are ugly – probably fuels the “Fed puts cutting cycle back on table” crowd. Either way, volatility feels guaranteed.
4. Inflation Clues From Ancient Data (No, Really)
Friday brings September personal income and spending – yes, September – which includes the core PCE reading the Fed supposedly cares about most. The delay is absurd, but the trend still matters.
We’re looking for any sign that the disinflation process is reasserting itself after the hot summer prints. Market pricing currently has about 70% odds of a December cut, but that’s been bouncing around daily.
We’ll also get ISM manufacturing Monday and ISM services Wednesday. Manufacturing has been in contraction forever, so any bounce would be notable. Services is the real economy – if that number slipping below 50 would set off alarm bells.
Look, I’ve been wrong plenty of times calling market turns, but something feels different heading into December. The tape is exhausted after seven straight up months for the S&P. Valuation is stretched by almost any measure. Policy uncertainty is maxed out with the shutdown dragging on.
Yet every dip keeps getting bought because the alternatives (bonds at 4.3%, cash at 4%+ – still don’t feel compelling when corporate earnings keep surprising higher.
This week gives us fresh evidence on all the big debates: Is the consumer finally rolling over? Is AI monetization real? Is the labor market cracking or just distorted by government chaos? Is inflation dead or playing possum?
My gut says we get one clean positive (probably earnings) and one messy negative (probably consumer or labor), leaving the market exactly where it started – confused, overvalued, and desperate for the next catalyst.
Either way, it’s going to be a fascinating week. Buckle up.
