Every once in a while, you wake up and the market feels like it’s holding its breath.
That’s exactly where we are this Wednesday morning in December 2025. The Federal Reserve decision is hours away, Oracle reports after the close, pharma giants are writing billion-dollar checks, retailers are reinventing themselves, and millions of student-loan borrowers are about to get an unpleasant surprise. In other words—plenty that can move your portfolio before lunch.
I’ve been watching mornings like this for years, and the ones that look “quiet” on the surface are often the most dangerous. So let’s cut through the noise and focus on the five things that actually matter today.
Five Market-Moving Stories You Can’t Ignore Today
1. The Fed: Everyone Expects a Cut, But Nobody’s Celebrating
Let me be blunt—almost 90% probability of a 25 basis-point cut is basically a done deal according to the futures market. Yet the S&P 500 and Dow finished lower yesterday. That tells you everything about the mood.
Traders aren’t pricing in relief. They’re pricing in a hawkish cut—the kind where Jerome Powell steps to the podium and gently reminds everyone that the cutting cycle might be nearing its end. Recent surveys of economists show only about a third expect another move in January. Translation: the “Fed put” might be further out of the money than many hoped.
Small-cap investors don’t seem to care. The Russell 2000 just printed fresh all-time highs yesterday—classic behavior when rate-sensitive borrowers smell easier money. I’ve always said the Russell is the truest barometer of Fed policy impact, and right now it’s screaming “borrow cheap while you can.”
The market has already priced in the cut—now it’s pricing in what comes after.
— Chief Market Strategist at a major wirehouse (paraphrased)
Watch Powell’s language around “ongoing progress” toward 2% inflation and whether he repeats the phrase “restrictive policy” multiple times. Each mention is code for “don’t get too excited.”
2. Oracle Faces Its Moment of Truth After the Bell
Remember when Oracle was the boring database company your IT department loved to hate? Those days are ancient history.
Today, Oracle has positioned itself as one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. Massive cloud deals with OpenAI, xAI, and others have sent the stock up over 30% this year—even after that ugly October swoon that erased two decades of monthly gains in one fell swoop.
But here’s the catch: the street wants proof these deals are turning into actual accelerating revenue, not just press-release wins. Remaining performance obligations (RPO) and cloud revenue growth better show meaningful inflection, or we could be looking at another violent reset.
- Consensus expects ~10% revenue growth
- Cloud revenue needs to grow north of 25% to calm nerves
- Guidance will matter more than the print—always does with growth stories
I’ve learned over the years that infrastructure winners in new technology cycles trade on narrative until they don’t. Oracle is still in the “narrative” phase. Tonight we find out if it graduates.
3. The Obesity-Drug Arms Race Just Went Nuclear
Six billion dollars. That’s what Eli Lilly is prepared to spend on a single manufacturing site in Alabama for its pipeline of obesity medicines—led by the oral pill that’s currently in late-stage trials.
Think about that number for a second. One plant. Six billion. That’s more than the market cap of many mid-sized pharma companies.
Pfizer, not to be left behind, just licensed a Chinese-developed obesity compound for $2.1 billion in milestones. The GLP-1 market is turning into the modern equivalent of the statin wars of the 1990s and 2000s—except the total addressable market could be ten times larger.
In my experience, when capital spending at this scale starts flowing, the winners separate from the pretenders very quickly. Supply constraints have been the biggest governor on growth so far. Whoever solves manufacturing first wins the decade.
4. Student Loan Payments Are About to Restart—Whether Borrowers Like It or Not
Buried in yesterday’s headlines was a story that could have massive second-order effects on consumer spending: the Department of Education is moving to force millions still on the SAVE plan to pick a new repayment option.
Recent data shows 42% of borrowers say student debt makes it harder to buy food and housing. More than half say it’s hurting retirement savings. When those paused payments restart en masse, discretionary spending takes a direct hit.
Retailers, restaurants, travel companies—anyone who sells “wants” instead of “needs”—should be paying very close attention. The consumer has been remarkably resilient, but this feels like one of those quiet macro risks that sneaks up on markets.
5. Target Wants You to Think It’s Cool Again
In perhaps the most “2025” story of the day, Target has transformed its SoHo New York store into what can only be described as an Instagram playground. Rotating pop-up shops, celebrity-curated displays, a full beauty bar—it’s less big-box retailer and more experiential destination.
Look, I’ve shopped at Target my whole life. I love the place. But trying to become “Tar-zhay” again in the age of TikTok and Temu is a bold bet. Incoming CEO Michael Fiddelke is basically saying: we’ll compete on style and experience because we can’t win on price alone anymore.
Whether this works nationally is anyone’s guess, but rushing to reopen the location before Christmas tells you how seriously leadership is taking the discretionary-dollar fight.
The Bottom Line This Morning
Some days the market gives you one big story. Today it gave us five interlocking ones.
The Fed will set the tone for risk appetite. Oracle will tell us if the AI infrastructure trade still has legs. Pharma spending confirms the obesity theme is only getting bigger. Student loan restarts threaten the consumer miracle. And retailers are reinventing themselves in real time.
In twenty years of doing this, I’ve found the most profitable days are usually the ones where multiple macro and micro themes collide. Today feels like one of those days.
Stay nimble, keep your powder dry, and whatever you do—don’t fall in love with any single narrative before the close.
Because in this market, the story can change by dinner.
