Fda Drug Chief Exit And The Approvals That Followed

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Oct 5, 2026

A senior drug regulator refused to resign, then was gone within days. Weeks later, files she had slowed started moving. The safety questions she raised have not gone quiet. What the calendar actually shows is harder to dismiss than the official line.

Financial market analysis from 05/10/2026. Market conditions may have changed since publication.

I keep a messy notebook for dates that do not line up. Not conspiracy charts. Just the ordinary kind of mismatch that makes a careful reader stop scrolling. Three personnel exits. Then a cluster of product decisions that had been stuck, delayed, or rejected. If you have ever watched a household argument change the moment one person leaves the room, you already know the feeling. The furniture is the same. The outcome is not. That is the unease sitting under the recent shake-up at the nation’s drug regulator, and it is worth sitting with longer than a headline allows.

Tracy Beth Høeg, a physician known for skeptical reading of mRNA safety data, was removed as a top drug official in mid-May. She has said she refused to resign when lawyers arrived at her office. She still does not know who gave the order. Within roughly three months, an mRNA influenza shot the agency had initially declined even to review was approved for older adults, a diabetes biologic she had held back reached children, and a twice-rejected melanoma product won accelerated clearance after its maker took the argument to the White House. None of that, by itself, proves a quid pro quo. Sequence is not guilt. Still, sequence is information. Ignoring it would be the stranger choice.

When the Calendar Becomes the Story

Regulatory agencies are supposed to be boring on purpose. Files move. Reviewers argue in memos. Advisory panels vote. A commissioner signs. The public rarely learns the names in the middle of that chain unless something snaps. This spring, something snapped. Vinay Prasad, who had been running the vaccine center, left at the end of April. Commissioner Marty Makary stepped down on May 12 after other officials forced through flavored vape authorizations he had opposed. Høeg was out three days later, on May 15.

She has described the scene in plain terms. Agency lawyers came to her office. She would not sign a resignation. They told her the instruction came from someone well above their pay grade. The person later associated with her termination memo has, by her account, denied writing it or even seeing it. The health secretary reportedly learned of the firing only after she was already gone. That last detail matters more than the gossip. If the political principal did not order the removal, someone else inside the building, or just outside it, had enough reach to empty a senior chair.

I have found that institutions rarely confess a motive in real time. They offer process. They say personnel matters are private. Fair enough, up to a point. Privacy is not the same as amnesia. When the same fortnight rearranges the people who had been the friction on contested files, the public is entitled to ask what the friction was protecting.

A Quiet Power Shift Inside the Building

Journalists who spoke with Høeg passed along a claim from people inside the health department: that Chris Klomp, the Medicare director installed in February as chief counselor, effectively runs day-to-day power. He also helped negotiate pricing deals with manufacturers. Those same accounts say he pushed Makary out and “probably” Høeg as well, and that company chief executives have him on the phone constantly. Høeg’s reply was careful and, to my ear, telling. She said the suggestion was not the first she had heard.

The day she was fired, reporting described Klomp as leading an effort to clear controversial appointees from the drug agency. The department declined to comment on personnel. Klomp later told senators he is responsible for personnel, among other things. His nomination as deputy health secretary cleared a committee vote and awaited a floor decision. None of that is a verdict. It is a map of who held the pen.

I guess that’s what you do now if you’re angry that your product is not approved. One has to wonder, is it approved based on the data or do they just know the right people?

Tracy Beth Høeg, on a company’s White House appeal

Drug makers had grown impatient with reversals on experimental products and vaccines. They wanted a more predictable agency. Predictable is a lovely word until you ask predictable for whom. A reviewer who slows a weak file is unpredictable to the sponsor and entirely predictable to the statute. The tension is old. What felt new was how quickly the slowers left and the files moved.


What the mRNA Flu Decision Actually Measured

Start with the shot that worries Høeg most. In February, with Makary at the top and Prasad at the vaccine center, the agency refused even to review Moderna’s application for an mRNA influenza vaccine. About two weeks later it reversed and agreed to take the file. Outside advisers voted unanimously in June to recommend it. On August 5 the product was cleared as mFlusiva for adults 50 and older. Approval for people 65 and up is conditional on a follow-up study.

The trial enrolled more than 40,000 adults. Compared with a standard-dose vaccine, the shot cut the odds of flu-like illness by 27 percent. Company scientists and agency staff reviewers did not identify new or serious safety concerns. That sentence is doing a lot of work. “Did not identify” is not the same as “cannot exist.” It means the pre-specified net, cast in a selected population over a limited window, did not catch a signal the reviewers judged new and serious.

Høeg’s reaction was blunt. She does not think the benefits outweighed the harms, and she has said she would likely spell out the concerns later. She called the safety issues very concerning. I am not a trialist, and I will not pretend a notebook replaces a statistical analysis plan. What I can say is that a 27 percent relative reduction against flu-like illness, not against hospitalization or death, is a modest clinical prize. Modest prizes demand modest risks. If the risk side is still being argued by the person who was supposed to own the drug center, the approval is not a closed book.

Perhaps the most interesting aspect is the February refusal. Agencies do not casually decline to file a major application from a company that already sells respiratory vaccines. Something in the package, the comparator, the endpoint, or the safety narrative failed an initial screen. A reversal two weeks later can be good science. It can also be a change in who is allowed to say no. Both stories fit the public record. Only one of them is comfortable.

  • Initial stance: the application was not accepted for review.
  • Reversal: the file was taken up within about two weeks.
  • Evidence: 27 percent lower odds of flu-like illness versus a standard-dose shot, in more than 40,000 adults.
  • Safety claim: no new or serious concerns flagged by the company or staff reviewers.
  • Limit: clearance for ages 65 and older hinges on a later study.
  • Dissent: the departed drug chief says benefits may not outweigh harms.

Relative risk is a slippery communicator. A 27 percent reduction sounds large in a press release and small in a waiting room if the baseline chance of flu-like illness was already low, or if the comparator was a weaker standard-dose product rather than the best available high-dose option for older adults. I keep wanting the absolute numbers in the same sentence as the percentage. Sponsors rarely lead with them. Readers should.

A Diabetes Biologic, Children, and a Marker Instead of a Feeling

Sanofi’s Tzield was first approved in 2022 to delay clinical type 1 diabetes in people with early-stage disease. That is a real, if narrow, use. The later ask was different: extend it to newly diagnosed patients aged 8 and older. The bid entered a voucher-style fast program that promises reviews in one to two months. Career staff recommended approval. Høeg disagreed. The company pulled the product out of the fast track. The agency missed an April 21 goal date.

On June 12, four weeks after she was fired, the agency granted accelerated approval for newly diagnosed patients ages 8 to 17. The decision rested on C-peptide, a laboratory marker of the body’s own insulin production, rather than on a clinical outcome patients can feel. No outside advisory committee weighed in. Known risks include cytokine release syndrome and viral reactivation. A confirmatory trial is supposed to support full approval later.

Høeg’s objection is the one I cannot easily shrug off. She said the file was supposed to go to an advisory committee. It is a drug given to children. In the pivotal trial at that stage of disease, she sees no clear evidence of clinical benefit. A marker moving in the right direction is not nothing. It is also not a child spending fewer days in the hospital, or a family avoiding an emergency infusion, or a pancreas that still works five years on. Accelerated approval was built for settings where waiting for the clinical endpoint would be cruel. It was not built so a surrogate could quietly become the whole argument.

That was supposed to go to an advisory committee. And that’s a drug that’s given in children. And if you look at the pivotal clinical trial at that stage of the disease, there’s no clear evidence of clinical benefit.

Parents hear “approved” and translate it as “shown to help.” Regulators sometimes mean “shown to move a blood test we hope tracks with help.” Those are different sentences. Mixing them up is how trust leaks. If I were writing the label in plain language, I would put the surrogate on the first line and the missing clinical proof on the second. Burying the second line is a choice.

The Melanoma File That Went to the White House

Replimune’s RP1 is an engineered virus injected into melanoma tumors. The agency rejected it in July 2025 and again in April. After the second rejection the company took its case to the White House in early May, arguing that the decisions clashed with a political push to help terminally ill patients. Officials then pressed health staff to take another look. The White House declined to comment when asked.

On May 29, two weeks after Høeg was fired, the company said it would try a third time. Executives had met with agency and White House officials two days earlier. Shares jumped as much as 70 percent in premarket trading. That jump is the market doing what markets do: pricing access, not biology. Staff reviewers had argued that trial design and response measurement made it hard to separate RP1’s effect from Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo, which patients also received. There was no control arm. An outside panel sided with the company 10 to 3 on July 30. Accelerated approval landed on August 6. The list price was set at $450,000 per course.

Høeg said the outcome went against everything career staff had said about the limits in the data. I do not think a White House meeting is automatically dirty. Terminally ill patients and their doctors lobby. They should be allowed to. The problem is the optic stacked on the method. A single-arm study plus a backbone drug already known to work is a fog machine. You can believe a signal is in there and still insist on a design that can show it. Approval at a mid-six-figure price, after two rejections and a political detour, asks the public to trust a process that just demonstrated it can be rerouted.

ProductWhat changedCore dispute
mRNA flu shotRefused for review, then approved for ages 50 and olderModest efficacy versus safety doubts from the departed drug chief
Tzield extensionHeld up, then accelerated approval for ages 8 to 17Surrogate marker, no advisory panel, unclear clinical benefit
RP1 melanoma virusRejected twice, then accelerated approval after a White House appealNo control arm, effect hard to separate from a partner drug
TavneosWithdrawal proposed, product still soldTrial integrity questions, liver injuries, retracted paper

Look at that grid and the pattern is not “every drug is fake.” The pattern is “the hard no got softer after the people associated with the hard no left.” That is a narrower claim. It is also the claim the calendar supports without needing a leaked email.

The Child Death Review That Nobody Wanted to Own

Høeg’s reputation as an mRNA skeptic did not start in this job. A 2021 analysis she led concluded that, for healthy teenage boys, the rate of heart inflammation after a second dose exceeded their four-month risk of hospitalization with COVID. At the agency she reviewed reports of children who died after COVID vaccination and asked why the findings had never been made public. That question alone was enough to make her radioactive in some offices and necessary in others.

A late-November memo associated with Prasad credited career staff in the pharmacovigilance office with finding that at least 10 children had died “after and because of” vaccination. When Høeg was fired, some accounts said she helped author the report and helped write the memo. She has rejected that framing. The linkage of those 10 deaths, she said, came from career staff, not from her.

The final staff review, dated December 5 and later released by a senator, examined 96 pediatric deaths reported from 2021 to 2024. It rated two “probably” related to vaccination and five “possibly” related. None was rated definitively related. Drafts released afterward showed the assessment shifting over time. Høeg suggested that staff who had handled the cases for years had a stake in the deaths not coming to light. Her question was simple enough to sting. Why sit on concerning reports for years?

I have sat in enough meetings to know how a cautious phrase gets sanded down. “Probably” becomes “possible.” “Possible” becomes “cannot exclude.” “Cannot exclude” becomes a footnote. None of those edits proves a cover-up. They do prove that language is a policy tool. Families reading the final adjectives are not reading the first draft. If two deaths were judged probably related, the public argument is no longer whether any signal exists. It is whether the system treated that signal as a reason to slow down or as a reason to manage the wording.

Pediatric death review, public final ratings:
  Files examined: 96
  Probably related: 2
  Possibly related: 5
  Definitively related: 0
  Still argued: who wrote what, and why drafts changed

A Pill the Agency Tried to Pull, and Could Not

Then there is the file that did not speed up. Tavneos, Amgen’s pill for a rare autoimmune disease of the blood vessels, is still on sale in the United States five months after Høeg’s drug center moved to pull it. Approved in 2021 on a single pivotal trial, it came with a prior understanding that the study had to show the drug beat steroids at 52 weeks. The company’s own prescriber page states that superiority was not demonstrated at week 52. That sentence should have been louder than the launch.

In January the agency asked Amgen to withdraw the drug voluntarily. Amgen declined. In April the agency formally proposed withdrawal, saying unblinded study personnel had manipulated results and that the application contained untrue statements of material fact. The agency has also linked the drug to 76 cases of liver injury, including eight deaths. In late June Europe’s medicines committee recommended revoking the license. Three days later a major medical journal retracted the pivotal trial at the request of its two academic authors. The journal said nine patients’ results had been re-adjudicated after the data were unblinded, without the authors’ knowledge. Britain stopped new patients from starting the drug in September.

“People have died taking this drug and we don’t know if it works,” Høeg said. Amgen, which bought the developer for $3.7 billion in 2022, strongly disagrees, has asked for a hearing, and points to an independent re-analysis from Duke that it says supports efficacy. Under federal law the product stays on the market until the commissioner rules on the hearing request and on withdrawal. Since May the agency has been led by acting commissioner Kyle Diamantas, a lawyer who oversaw food regulation. The White House aide nominated for the permanent job, Heidi Overton, had a confirmation hearing and was awaiting a vote.

Sales did not wait for the hearing. Tavneos brought in $459 million last year. First-quarter U.S. sales rose 32 percent to $119 million. That is the ugly arithmetic of a withdrawal that is proposed rather than finished. Every month of process is a month of revenue. I do not begrudge a company its defense. I do begrudge a system in which a retracted pivotal paper, a European revocation recommendation, and a domestic proposal to pull the drug still leave new prescriptions flowing.

How Accelerated Approval Became a Side Door

Accelerated approval is not a scandal by design. It is a bargain. A sponsor may reach patients sooner on a surrogate reasonably likely to predict benefit, and must confirm the benefit afterward. The bargain fails in two familiar ways. The surrogate is weakly tied to how patients feel or survive. The confirmatory trial drifts, shrinks, or never quite answers the original question. Both failure modes showed up in this cluster.

For the pediatric diabetes extension, C-peptide stood in for clinical benefit. For the melanoma virus, tumor responses in a single-arm study stood in for a comparison the design could not make. For the flu shot, a relative reduction in flu-like illness stood in for a clearer picture of severe disease, and the oldest age band was parked on a post-approval promise. Promises are cheap at the moment of clearance and expensive to enforce once the sales force is in the field.

In my experience, the public hears the word accelerated and thinks of speed as a virtue. Speed is a virtue when the alternative is certain decline and the evidence is directionally strong. Speed is a liability when it mainly shortens the time a dissenter has to write the memo. The voucher-style program that promised one-to-two-month reviews is a perfect illustration. Career staff said yes on Tzield’s extension. The drug chief said no. The company left the fast lane, missed a goal date, and returned to a yes after she was gone. Fast is not the same as finished.

  1. A surrogate or a soft endpoint clears the first gate.
  2. A confirmatory study is promised, often with a generous clock.
  3. Marketing begins while the harder question is still open.
  4. Withdrawal, if it comes, requires a hearing and a commissioner who will sign.
  5. Revenue continues through every one of those steps.

Personnel Is Policy, Whether Anyone Admits It

There is a polite fiction that science sits on one floor and politics on another. The spring exits make that fiction hard to keep. Makary was pushed after he blocked flavored vape authorizations that other officials wanted through. Prasad left the vaccine center just as the flu file was changing posture. Høeg, who had been the internal brake on at least two of the later approvals and a public skeptic of mRNA risk communication, was removed by lawyers who would not name the author of the order.

You can support those removals and still admit what they were. They were policy. A commissioner who will not sign a vape authorization is making health policy. A drug chief who will not wave through a pediatric surrogate is making health policy. Replacing them with officials more willing to sign is also health policy. Calling it personnel management is just the quieter label.

The health secretary’s reported surprise at Høeg’s firing complicates the usual story of a cabinet principal cleaning house. If he did not know, the house is being cleaned by someone else. Klomp’s dual role, pricing deals on one hand and personnel reach on the other, is the sort of combination that makes sponsors feel heard and reviewers feel optional. Industry wanted predictability. A phone that always answers is a kind of predictability. It is not the kind the statute describes.

What “Knowing the Right People” Does to a Share Price

The 70 percent premarket move in Replimune shares is the cleanest market tell in this story. Nothing about the tumor biology changed between the April rejection and the late-May announcement of a third attempt. What changed was access. Meetings with agency and White House officials were disclosed. Traders did not need a p-value. They needed a room.

That is not an argument that every rally is corrupt. It is an argument that political access has a price, and the price shows up before the label does. Investors who treat approval odds as a scientific variable and ignore the staffing variable are going to misread files like these. The same is true in reverse. A staffing change is not a buy signal if the underlying trial still cannot separate one drug from another.

Amgen’s situation is the mirror image. A $3.7 billion acquisition, hundreds of millions in annual sales, a retraction, a European recommendation to revoke, and a U.S. withdrawal proposal that has not yet become a withdrawal. The market can live with scientific doubt longer than a patient with drug-induced liver injury can. Those clocks are not the same clock. Regulators are supposed to notice.

Safety Language That Sounds Careful and Says Very Little

Watch the adjectives. “No new or serious safety concerns identified.” “Probably” and “possibly” related. “Untrue statements of material fact.” “Superiority was not demonstrated.” Each phrase is defensible. Stacked together they describe an agency that has become exceptionally good at not saying the blunt thing.

The blunt things are available. A flu shot with a 27 percent relative reduction and a dissenting former drug chief is not a settled triumph. A children’s diabetes drug approved on a peptide marker, without an advisory committee, is not a settled triumph. A melanoma virus that cannot be cleanly distinguished from a drug patients were already getting is not a settled triumph. A vasculitis pill whose pivotal paper was retracted, and whose maker’s own page concedes the pre-specified superiority test failed, is not a settled medicine. You can hold all four thoughts without joining a movement.

I keep coming back to Høeg’s line about benefits and harms. It is not elegant. It is the actual job. Approval is not a prize for completing a trial. It is a judgment that, for the intended patients, the expected good is worth the expected damage. When the person last charged with that judgment says she cannot make it, and the judgment is made after she is removed, the rest of us are allowed to be unsatisfied with a press statement.

The Vape Fight Was a Preview, Not a Footnote

It is easy to treat the flavored vape authorizations as a separate scandal. They are the dress rehearsal. Makary opposed them. Other administration officials forced them through. He resigned on May 12. Reporting at the time said the health secretary made the final call on pushing him out. Whatever the internal vote count, the lesson for every subsequent file was visible: a commissioner’s no could be routed around.

Once that lesson is public, sponsors do not need a secret handshake. They need a path. The melanoma company found one through the White House, framed as help for the terminally ill. The framing can be sincere and still function as leverage. Terminally ill patients deserve speed where evidence supports it. They do not deserve to be used as the rhetorical crowbar for a single-arm study that career reviewers could not interpret.

There is a difference between compassion and capitulation. Compassion designs a trial a dying patient can join and still learn from. Capitulation approves the product because the alternative is a bad meeting. The record here does not let an outsider declare which one happened. It does let an outsider notice that the bad meeting occurred, and the approval followed.

What a Skeptical Reader Should Demand Next

None of this requires a theory about secret orders written in invisible ink. It requires ordinary documents. The termination memo, and a clear account of who drafted it, would settle one mystery Høeg has already half-settled by saying the supposed author denies it. The February refuse-to-file rationale for the flu application, set beside the later review memo, would show what changed besides the names on the letterhead. The advisory-committee waiver for the pediatric diabetes decision should be public in full, not summarized.

For the melanoma product, the useful artifact is the staff critique of response measurement, placed next to the panel’s 10-to-3 vote, with the questions the panel was actually asked. Panels can be pointed at a narrow question and then described as if they blessed the whole file. For Tavneos, the useful artifact is the hearing calendar. A proposed withdrawal that ages into the next fiscal year is not enforcement. It is a delay with a docket number.

  • Who ordered the May 15 removal, in writing.
  • Why the flu application was refused for review, then accepted.
  • Why a children’s file skipped an advisory committee.
  • How a no-control melanoma study became an accelerated approval after a political meeting.
  • When a commissioner will rule on a drug whose pivotal paper was retracted.

Those five items are not a fishing expedition. They are the minimum a serious system would already have on the table. If the answers are dull and procedural, good. Dull and procedural is what an agency is for. If the answers are missing, the calendar keeps doing the talking.

A Note on Skepticism That Does Not Slide into Myth

It is possible to mishandle this story in both directions. One mishandling treats every approval after May as tainted, which flattens real differences in evidence. The flu trial was large. The diabetes drug already had an earlier indication. The melanoma patients are facing a brutal disease. The other mishandling treats the staffing collapse as irrelevant color, which asks the reader to believe that judgment and judges are unrelated.

Høeg can be wrong about the flu shot and still be right that the process smelled wrong. Career reviewers can be right about RP1’s design limits and still lose a panel vote. A European committee can recommend revocation while a U.S. hearing grinds on, and both things can be legal. Legality is a floor. It is not a reassurance.

I also do not think “mRNA” is a magic word that ends the argument, in either direction. Platform familiarity is not platform innocence. A technology can be appropriate for one pathogen and poorly justified for another, especially when the comparator is an existing vaccine and the incremental benefit is modest. The adult flu approval will be judged, eventually, by severe outcomes and by whatever the required follow-up in older adults actually finds. Until then, confidence should be sized to the endpoint that was measured, not to the endpoint the press release implies.

The Patient on the Other Side of the Memo

It is easy, from a desk, to talk about surrogates. A parent of a newly diagnosed eight-year-old does not experience C-peptide. They experience shots, side effects, school absences, and the hope that someone checked whether this particular child is likely to be better off. Cytokine release syndrome is not a theoretical phrase in an infusion chair. Viral reactivation is not a footnote if it happens to your kid.

The same human scale applies to melanoma. A $450,000 course can be a bargain if it reliably extends life beyond what Opdivo already offers, and a very expensive fog if it does not. Patients considering it deserve the staff concern about confounding stated in ordinary words, not only the approval headline. People with vasculitis considering Tavneos deserve the retraction and the failed week-52 test stated with the same prominence as the brand. “People have died taking this drug and we don’t know if it works” is an uncomfortable sentence. Uncomfortable is not a reason to leave it off the counseling sheet.

Trust, once spent, does not refill on a press cycle. The pandemic years trained a large share of the public to hear agency confidence as marketing. Some of that reaction was unfair. Some of it was earned by overconfident claims that later needed footnotes. A new cluster of fast yeses, arriving after the internal skeptics were removed, spends more of that trust. Rebuilding it would look boring: published memos, held advisory meetings, confirmatory trials that finish, withdrawals that actually withdraw.


Why the Acting Leadership Matters More Than the Org Chart

An acting commissioner who came up through food regulation is not disqualified from signing drug decisions. Lawyers run agencies all the time. The issue is timing. The Tavneos hearing request lands on a desk that has been temporary since May. Temporary desks are where hard withdrawals go to wait. A permanent nominee moving through confirmation does not, by magic, inherit the dissent that was cleared out of the drug center.

Klomp’s line to senators, that he is responsible for personnel among other things, should be read beside the products, not only beside the org chart. Personnel responsibility includes who is allowed to say the file is not ready. If that function is treated as a problem to be managed, the approvals that follow will keep looking sudden even when every form is filled in.

Industry’s wish for a predictable agency is legitimate. Sponsors invest on timelines. Patients enroll in trials that need an finish line. Predictability, though, cannot mean that a well-connected objection always finds a friend. It has to mean that similar evidence gets similar answers regardless of who has the counsel’s mobile number. The spring and summer record is not there yet.

Reading the Next Approval Without Getting Played

If you follow these files for work, or because someone you love may be offered one of the products, a short habit helps. Ask what the trial compared. Ask what it measured. Ask who disagreed internally, and whether they are still in the job. Ask whether an advisory committee saw it. Ask what happens if the confirmatory study fails. Ask what the company is allowed to say tomorrow that the label does not quite support.

Those questions will not make you popular at a launch event. They will keep you from confusing a calendar win with a clinical one. The mRNA flu approval can still prove itself in use. The pediatric diabetes extension can still show a benefit patients feel. The melanoma virus can still separate itself from the backbone drug in better evidence. Tavneos can still win its hearing if the Duke re-analysis holds up under cross-examination. Hope is allowed. Amnesia is not.

I started with a notebook of dates because dates are harder to spin than adjectives. May 12, May 15, May 29, June 12, July 30, August 5, August 6. A commissioner out. A drug chief out. A third attempt announced. A children’s accelerated approval. A panel vote. Two clearances. You can call that a coincidence. You can call it a course correction toward industry’s idea of predictability. You cannot honestly call it uneventful.

I’m worried about approvals that we’ve seen recently, like the mRNA influenza vaccine.

Tracy Beth Høeg, after leaving the agency

Worry is not a method. It is a reason to demand the method. The method, in this case, is the unglamorous stack of memos, waivers, hearing dates, and confirmatory protocols that would let a stranger reproduce the judgment. Until that stack is public and complete, the stranger is stuck with the calendar, the price, and a former regulator who says the benefits did not clearly win. That is already enough to keep the notebook open.

The Part That Should Still Bother a Calm Reader

Calm is not the same as incurious. A calm reader can grant that Høeg has a point of view, that companies have a right to appeal, and that White House staff take meetings. A calm reader can still flinch at a termination memo whose supposed author denies writing it. A calm reader can still flinch at a children’s approval that skipped the committee she says it was supposed to face. A calm reader can still flinch at a drug that remains for sale after its pivotal paper was pulled and after regulators on two continents have moved against it.

The flinch is the point. Agencies do not earn the benefit of the doubt by asking for it after the skeptics have been escorted out. They earn it by showing the work that the skeptics said was missing. If that work exists, publish it. If it does not, the approvals stand as what they currently look like: decisions that got easier when the people most likely to say no were no longer in the room.

I would rather be wrong about the motive and right about the standard. The standard is old and unfashionable. Show a benefit a patient can recognize. Show a risk you have actually looked for. Separate your drug from the other drug in the infusion bag. Pull a product when the pivotal evidence collapses. Name the official who fires the regulator. Anything less is a story about access. Access is not evidence, no matter how quickly the shares move the morning after the meeting.

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Successful investing is about managing risk, not avoiding it.
— Benjamin Graham
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