Watching XRP dip under the dollar mark again feels strangely familiar, doesn’t it? I’ve been tracking this asset long enough to remember how often that psychological barrier has acted like a magnet—sometimes holding firm, sometimes giving way with surprising speed. On November 15 the price slipped as low as roughly $0.89 before clawing back toward $0.95, leaving plenty of traders wondering whether the next stop sits closer to $0.85.
Why XRP Lost the Dollar Handle So Quickly
The broader market set the stage. Bitcoin flirted with the low $60,000s while Ethereum hovered near $1,800, both reflecting a clear risk-off mood. Stablecoin supply had already contracted by more than $14 billion over the preceding month, a quiet but telling sign that fresh capital was stepping back. When leverage gets squeezed in conditions like these, the cascade can accelerate faster than most people expect.
XRP itself shed more than 15 percent across the week, sliding well below the $1.30 area it held at the start of November. That kind of move rarely happens in isolation. Liquidations of long positions added fuel, and the usual weekend thinness in liquidity didn’t help either. I’ve noticed that once a major round number breaks, the next leg lower often arrives quicker than the recovery that follows.
ETF Flows Turned Negative Again
US spot XRP exchange-traded funds recorded roughly $19.13 million in net withdrawals during the November 9–13 window. That marked the second straight week of outflows and the heaviest weekly figure in about eight months. Most of the redemptions hit early in the week—over $10 million on Monday alone, followed by another solid chunk on Tuesday. By the close of Friday the combined assets under management sat near $1.15 billion.
Those numbers matter because they show real institutional and retail money choosing to step aside rather than average down. In my view, sustained outflows at this scale keep a lid on any quick rebound. Price can still bounce, of course, but the path of least resistance stays lower while capital continues to leave.
Whale Activity on the Rise
Blockchain metrics painted an interesting picture as well. The 50-day average of large XRP transfers to a major exchange climbed nearly 93 percent between mid-August and mid-November. The shorter-term reading moved from just over 12,000 transactions to almost 24,000, nearly matching the longer-term average. Coins moving onto exchanges don’t automatically mean sales, yet the timing lines up with the recent decline from around $1.25 down toward $1.04.
At the same time, funding rates in the derivatives market had earlier flashed unusually high positive readings. That suggested long positions were still crowded even as price weakened—an uncomfortable combination that often resolves with further downside once the crowd starts to unwind.
Key Technical Levels Worth Watching
Right now the chart shows XRP trading beneath its 20-day moving average near $1.16. Immediate support clusters around the $0.90 zone that held during the recent low. A clean break beneath that area opens the door toward $0.85, a level several market participants have flagged as the next logical magnet.
On the upside, reclaiming and holding above $1 would be the first constructive signal. From there, previous breakdown points near $1.05, $1.12 and eventually $1.25 come back into play. The problem is that relative strength against Bitcoin and Ethereum still looks soft. Until those pairs stabilize, any bounce in dollar terms risks remaining temporary.
XRP has reached a previously discussed downside zone, yet the pairs against the larger assets do not yet appear finished. The market could either dig deeper or simply grind sideways before any meaningful recovery takes shape.
That assessment feels balanced to me. Spot buyers willing to accumulate near current prices may find the risk-reward acceptable, while leveraged longs still look premature without clearer confirmation.
The Upcoming Escrow Release
December 1 brings the next scheduled escrow unlock of one billion XRP. History shows that a large portion typically returns to escrow shortly afterward, yet the mere availability of fresh supply often weighs on sentiment in the days leading up to the event. Combined with the current technical picture, that calendar date adds another layer of caution for anyone expecting an immediate V-shaped recovery.
I’ve watched these unlocks enough times to know they rarely produce the dramatic sell-off some fear, yet they seldom act as a pure catalyst either. The market tends to treat them as background noise once the actual numbers settle, but the anticipation can still dampen buying enthusiasm in the short term.
Broader Market Context Still Matters
None of this unfolds in a vacuum. The same forces pressuring Bitcoin and Ethereum—tightening liquidity, reduced stablecoin supply, and elevated liquidations—continue to influence every major altcoin. When risk appetite returns, XRP often participates, sometimes even leading on percentage moves. Until that shift arrives, however, the path of least resistance remains lower.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how quickly sentiment can flip once a few consecutive green days appear. We’ve seen it before. A decisive reclaim of $1 followed by rising volume and improving relative strength could change the conversation within a single trading session. Until then, patience and disciplined risk management remain the smarter approach.
Practical Levels for Different Timeframes
For short-term traders the $0.90–$0.95 band acts as the immediate battlefield. A daily close beneath $0.90 would increase the odds of a test of $0.85. Conversely, a sustained push back above $1.00 would force many shorts to cover and could open a move toward the mid-$1.10s.
Swing traders might prefer waiting for clearer structure. That could mean either a successful defense of the $0.85–$0.90 zone with rising volume or a clean break and retest of the $1.00 level from above. Both scenarios offer more defined risk than simply buying the current dip.
Longer-term holders face a different calculation. The fundamental story around payment corridors and institutional interest has not vanished overnight. Yet price action still needs to stabilize before those narratives regain market attention. Averaging in gradually near multi-month lows remains a strategy some prefer, provided position sizes stay modest relative to overall portfolio risk.
- Immediate support sits near $0.90 after the recent low
- Next major downside target discussed by many sits at $0.85
- A reclaim of $1.00 would be the first constructive technical signal
- Further upside levels to watch include $1.05, $1.12 and $1.25
- Relative strength versus Bitcoin and Ethereum still looks weak
Sentiment and Positioning Clues
Funding rates earlier in the week had climbed to levels not seen since the previous October, indicating crowded long exposure even while price declined. That kind of divergence rarely ends well without a shakeout. Meanwhile the rise in whale-to-exchange transfers suggests larger players have been more active on the sell side, or at least repositioning, during the slide.
I’ve found that combining on-chain flow data with derivatives positioning often provides a clearer picture than price alone. Right now both point toward residual selling pressure rather than aggressive accumulation. That does not rule out sharp short-covering rallies, but it does argue against expecting an immediate sustained recovery.
What Would Change the Outlook
Several developments could shift the tone. A multi-day stretch of positive ETF flows would help. A clear bottoming formation on the relative strength charts against Bitcoin would help even more. And of course a broader market recovery led by the majors would lift almost everything, including XRP.
Until one or more of those pieces fall into place, the cautious stance makes the most sense. The $0.85 area remains a realistic downside target if current support fails. Whether that level ultimately holds or simply becomes another waystation lower depends on how the next few sessions unfold and whether fresh capital decides the risk is finally worth taking.
Markets have a habit of surprising us precisely when conviction feels strongest. The recent break below $1 has already caught more than a few participants off guard. The next move—whether toward $0.85 or a reclaim of the dollar—will likely do the same. Staying flexible and respecting the levels that actually matter remains the most practical approach in an environment this unsettled.
Looking ahead, the combination of technical damage, ongoing ETF redemptions, elevated exchange inflows from large holders, and the approaching escrow date creates a challenging short-term backdrop. Yet the same factors that drive prices lower can reverse once selling exhausts itself. Watching volume, relative strength, and flow data will matter more than any single price target in the sessions to come.
For now the story remains one of caution. XRP has broken a key psychological level, tested multi-month lows, and still faces several headwinds. Whether $0.85 becomes the next chapter or the current zone finds enough buyers to stabilize will become clearer in the days ahead. Either way, the market has already delivered a reminder that round numbers and prior supports can fail when broader risk appetite fades.
I’ll keep a close eye on that $0.90–$0.85 band and on any shift in ETF flows. Those two factors, more than most headlines, will likely determine the next meaningful move. Until then, treating the recent breakdown with respect rather than hope feels like the wiser course.
The coming weeks will test whether the current weakness represents a healthy flush of excess leverage or the start of a deeper corrective phase. History suggests both outcomes remain possible. Positioning accordingly—rather than predicting with absolute certainty—usually proves the more sustainable strategy when volatility rises and conviction becomes expensive.
In the end, price is the final arbiter. Everything else is context. Right now that price sits below $1 after a swift decline, with clear levels both above and below that will shape the next chapter. Staying attentive to those levels while filtering out the noise remains the most reliable way to navigate the current environment.
