Have you ever watched a promising crypto rally hit a brick wall, leaving you wondering what went wrong? That’s exactly what’s happening with XRP right now. The cryptocurrency, which surged earlier this month, is now stuck in a holding pattern, trading at around $2.35 and struggling to regain its spark. The culprit? A recent delay by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in deciding the fate of the 21Shares XRP spot ETF, which has sent ripples of uncertainty through the market. As a crypto enthusiast myself, I find it both frustrating and fascinating how regulatory hurdles can shift the tide so quickly. Let’s unpack what’s going on, why it matters, and what could be next for XRP.
Why XRP’s Momentum Is Fading
XRP’s recent performance has been a bit like a car running out of gas just as it hits the open road. After a strong rally earlier in May, the token’s price has dipped by 1.4% in the last 24 hours and a more concerning 8.3% over the past week. This slowdown isn’t just about price—it’s backed by a sharp drop in market activity. Spot trading volume for XRP has fallen to $2.67 billion, a 15.9% decrease from the previous day, signaling that traders are pulling back.
Derivatives markets tell a similar story. According to recent data, open interest in XRP futures dropped by 3.14% to $4.58 billion, while futures trading volume plummeted by 28.45% to $4.24 billion. In my experience, such declines often point to traders closing positions rather than betting on new ones—a sign of waning confidence in short-term price movements. But what’s driving this hesitation? The answer lies in a mix of regulatory uncertainty and technical signals, which we’ll dive into next.
SEC’s ETF Delay: A Regulatory Roadblock
The SEC’s decision to postpone its ruling on the 21Shares Core XRP Trust has cast a long shadow over XRP’s market outlook. Announced on May 20, 2025, this delay is part of the agency’s review to ensure the ETF meets the requirements of Section 6(b)(5) of the Exchange Act, which focuses on preventing fraud and market manipulation. While the SEC hasn’t outright rejected the proposal, the extended review period—complete with a 21-day comment period and 35 days for rebuttals—has left investors in limbo.
Delays on spot crypto ETFs are expected. Early approvals for XRP or similar assets aren’t likely before late June or early July, with early Q4 being more realistic.
– ETF analyst
This isn’t the first time regulatory uncertainty has weighed on XRP. The token’s history with the SEC, including a high-profile lawsuit settled in recent years, makes investors particularly sensitive to such news. For me, it’s a reminder of how tightly crypto markets are tied to regulatory moves—sometimes even more than technical or fundamental factors. The 21Shares ETF, which would use Coinbase Custody for asset storage and track the CME CF XRP-Dollar Reference Rate, could be a game-changer for XRP’s mainstream adoption. But for now, the delay is keeping bullish sentiment in check.
Technical Signals: A Market in Limbo
Let’s shift gears to the charts, where XRP’s price action is painting a picture of indecision. The token is hovering near the lower band of the Bollinger indicator, a sign of cautious market activity. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at a neutral 52, which is neither screaming “buy” nor “sell.” Short-term indicators, like the 10-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and Simple Moving Average (SMA), are flashing bearish signals, hinting at immediate downward pressure.
But it’s not all doom and gloom. Longer-term moving averages, such as the 20-day to 200-day EMAs and SMAs, are still showing buy signals, suggesting the broader uptrend remains intact. If XRP can break above $2.38 and hold momentum past $2.61, we could see it target higher resistance levels. On the flip side, a drop below the 20-day SMA at $2.34 might push it toward support at $2.26 or even $2.06. It’s like XRP is at a crossroads, waiting for a spark to decide its next move.
| Price Level | Significance | Potential Outcome |
| $2.38 | Key Resistance | Breakout could signal bullish momentum |
| $2.34 | 20-day SMA Support | Falling below may lead to further declines |
| $2.26 | Next Support Level | Strong support, but breach could test $2.06 |
Market Sentiment: Cooling Speculation
The drop in trading volume and open interest isn’t just a numbers game—it reflects a broader shift in market sentiment. When futures volume falls by nearly 30% in a single day, it’s a clear sign that speculative interest is cooling. Traders seem hesitant to make big bets on XRP’s short-term direction, likely due to the SEC’s delay and the mixed technical signals. I’ve seen this pattern before in crypto markets: when uncertainty creeps in, the crowd often steps back to wait for clearer signals.
- Lower trading volume: Indicates reduced market participation.
- Decreasing open interest: Suggests traders are closing positions, not opening new ones.
- Neutral RSI: Reflects a lack of strong bullish or bearish momentum.
This wait-and-see approach isn’t necessarily a bad thing. Sometimes, a pause allows the market to consolidate before its next big move. But for XRP, the stakes feel higher given its recent rally and the potential of an ETF to boost its legitimacy.
The Bigger Picture: XRP’s ETF Potential
An approved XRP ETF could be a turning point for the cryptocurrency. Unlike trading on exchanges, an ETF would open the door for institutional investors and retail traders who prefer regulated investment vehicles. The 21Shares proposal, with its focus on secure custody and a trusted price reference, is designed to meet the SEC’s stringent requirements. But the agency’s cautious approach—rooted in concerns about market manipulation—means approval is far from guaranteed.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is how this delay fits into the broader crypto ETF landscape. Other assets, like Solana, are facing similar hurdles, with the SEC citing market integrity concerns. This suggests a pattern: regulators are moving slowly to ensure investor protections, even as the crypto industry pushes for mainstream adoption. As someone who’s followed crypto for years, I can’t help but feel torn—part of me wants faster progress, but another part appreciates the need for careful oversight.
The SEC’s delays reflect a balancing act between innovation and investor safety, but they’re testing the patience of crypto enthusiasts.
– Crypto market analyst
What’s Next for XRP?
So, where does XRP go from here? The market’s in a holding pattern, with technical indicators offering mixed signals and regulatory uncertainty keeping traders on edge. A breakout above $2.38 could reignite bullish momentum, especially if positive news on the ETF front emerges. Conversely, a drop below $2.34 might signal a deeper pullback, testing lower supports.
- Monitor SEC updates: Any news on the ETF decision could be a catalyst.
- Watch key price levels: $2.38 for upside, $2.34 for downside risk.
- Track market activity: A rebound in trading volume could signal renewed interest.
For now, XRP investors need patience. The market’s at a crossroads, and while the long-term trend remains bullish, short-term volatility could test nerves. I’d argue that this moment of uncertainty is also an opportunity—whether you’re a trader eyeing a dip or a long-term holder betting on XRP’s future. What do you think: is XRP poised for a comeback, or will regulatory hurdles keep it grounded? The next few weeks could tell us a lot.
XRP’s journey is a reminder of the crypto market’s wild ups and downs. While the SEC’s delay has put a damper on its recent rally, the bigger picture—complete with ETF potential and a resilient long-term trend—suggests there’s still plenty to watch. Keep an eye on those price levels, stay tuned for regulatory updates, and maybe, just maybe, XRP will surprise us yet.
