Why Turkiye Expands Influence East: A Geopolitical Shift

Have you ever wondered what drives a nation to stretch its influence far beyond its borders, reshaping entire regions in the process? I’ve always been fascinated by how countries maneuver in the grand chessboard of geopolitics, and Turkiye’s recent push eastward is a move that’s hard to ignore. From the rugged landscapes of the South Caucasus to the vast steppes of Central Asia, something big is brewing, and it’s not just about trade routes or military might—it’s about legacy, power, and a bold vision for the future.

The Strategic Pivot: Turkiye’s Eastern Ambitions

Turkiye’s decision to expand its influence eastward isn’t a spur-of-the-moment choice. It’s a calculated strategy rooted in a mix of opportunity, ambition, and regional upheaval. The collapse of long-standing power structures in the Middle East and the shifting dynamics in the South Caucasus have given Ankara a rare chance to flex its muscles. But why now, and why east? Let’s break it down.

The Fall of Assad: A Game-Changing Catalyst

The sudden downfall of Syria’s Assad regime was like a geopolitical earthquake, sending shockwaves across the region. For Turkiye, it opened a window to assert dominance in areas previously under Syrian and Russian influence. I’ve always thought moments like these reveal a leader’s true instincts—Erdogan saw chaos and turned it into opportunity. With Syria’s power vacuum, Turkiye briefly surged in influence, only to face pushback from unexpected quarters.

Geopolitical shifts often create windows for ambitious players to rewrite the rules of the game.

– International relations analyst

Israel, spooked by Turkiye’s growing clout in Syria, prompted a surprising U.S. policy shift. The U.S. moved to normalize relations with a former adversary in Syria, sidelining Turkiye’s immediate gains. But here’s where it gets interesting: instead of retreating, Turkiye doubled down, redirecting its ambitions toward the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Perhaps Erdogan realized that Syria was just one piece of a much larger puzzle.

The Zangezur Corridor: A Strategic Lifeline

At the heart of Turkiye’s eastward push lies the Zangezur Corridor, a proposed trade and military route cutting through Armenia’s Syunik Province. This corridor could connect Azerbaijan’s mainland to its exclave of Nakhchivan, and by extension, link Turkiye directly to Central Asia. It’s a game-changer, and I can’t help but admire the audacity of the plan. If successful, it would streamline Turkiye’s access to the resource-rich and strategically vital Central Asian states.

• Economic boost: The corridor could open new trade routes, bypassing traditional Russian-controlled pathways.
• Military advantage: It would allow Turkiye to project power deeper into Asia, challenging Russia’s grip.
• Regional influence: A direct link to Central Asia strengthens Turkiye’s cultural and political ties with Turkic nations.

But here’s the catch: the 2020 ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, mediated by Moscow, stipulated that Russia would control this corridor. Recent reports suggest Armenia’s leadership might be open to bypassing this deal, potentially handing Turkiye and Azerbaijan a major win. If that happens, it’s not just a logistical victory—it’s a symbolic middle finger to Russia’s regional dominance.

Azerbaijan’s Pivot: From Balance to Boldness

Azerbaijan, long a tightrope walker between Russian and Turkish influence, seems to be picking a side. President Ilham Aliyev’s recent moves—raiding Russian media offices, flexing muscle in diplomatic spats—suggest a shift toward a Turkish-led regional order. I find this fascinating because it’s a risky bet. Azerbaijan’s prosperity has relied on balancing powers, but the lure of a Turkish-led axis might be too tempting to resist.

But is Azerbaijan biting off more than it can chew? By cozying up to Turkiye, it risks becoming a junior partner rather than an equal. Aliyev’s boldness might win short-term prestige, but long-term dependency on Ankara could limit Baku’s autonomy. It’s a classic case of trading one big brother for another, and I’m not sure it’s the wisest move.

Russia’s Waning Influence: A Perfect Storm

Russia’s grip on its southern periphery is slipping, and it’s not just because of Turkiye’s ambition. The fallout from Syria, combined with Armenia’s potential realignment and Azerbaijan’s defiance, has created a perfect storm. Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia relies heavily on controlling key routes like the Zangezur Corridor. Losing that could unravel decades of dominance.

When a great power stumbles, others rush to fill the void. That’s geopolitics 101.

I’ve always believed that Russia’s strength lies in its ability to project stability, but right now, it’s looking shaky. The unrest in Armenia, driven by fears of becoming a Turkish-Azeri protectorate, adds another layer of complexity. If Armenia’s leadership opts for a deal with Turkiye and Azerbaijan, Russia’s role as a regional arbiter could take a serious hit.

The U.S. Factor: A Pragmatic Pivot

Let’s not forget the U.S. in all this. The Biden administration’s attempts to turn Armenia into a Western foothold failed, largely because Georgia resisted efforts to destabilize its government. With that plan in tatters, the U.S. seems to have made a pragmatic choice: let Turkiye take the lead in Armenia. It’s a move that aligns with Trump’s reported outreach to Syria’s new leadership and his broader goal of balancing regional powers.

Geopolitical Balance in the South Caucasus:
  Turkiye: Rising star, leveraging cultural ties
  Russia: Defensive, losing ground
  U.S.: Strategic retreat, enabling allies

This shift feels like a classic Trump move—pragmatic, deal-driven, and a little unpredictable. By stepping back, the U.S. avoids overcommitting while letting Turkiye do the heavy lifting. It’s a win-win for Washington, but it leaves Russia in a tough spot and Turkiye with a golden opportunity.

What’s Next for Turkiye’s Grand Vision?

Turkiye’s eastward push is more than a power grab; it’s a bid to redefine its role in Eurasia. The Zangezur Corridor, if realized, could make Turkiye a linchpin between Europe and Asia, a modern-day Silk Road hub. But the risks are real—overextending influence, alienating Russia, and managing tensions with allies like Azerbaijan and Israel.

1. Consolidate regional alliances: Strengthen ties with Azerbaijan and Central Asian states.
2. Navigate U.S. relations: Balance cooperation with Washington while pursuing independent goals.
3. Mitigate Russian backlash: Avoid direct confrontation with Moscow while chipping away at its influence.

In my view, the most intriguing aspect of this saga is how Turkiye balances ambition with pragmatism. Erdogan’s vision is bold, but geopolitics is a tightrope. One misstep—say, pushing Azerbaijan too far or underestimating Russia—could unravel the whole plan. Yet, if Turkiye pulls this off, it could emerge as a true Eurasian powerhouse.

The Bigger Picture: A New Eurasian Order?

Zoom out, and you’ll see this isn’t just about Turkiye or the South Caucasus—it’s about the future of Eurasia. The region is a crossroads of civilizations, resources, and ambitions. Turkiye’s push eastward challenges not just Russia but the entire balance of power. Will it lead to a Turkish-led order, or will it spark new tensions? Only time will tell, but I’m betting this story is far from over.

Reflecting on this, I can’t help but think of history’s great empires—Ottoman, Russian, Persian—all vying for control of these same lands. Turkiye’s current moves feel like an echo of that past, but with a modern twist. The stakes are high, the players are bold, and the outcome? Well, that’s anyone’s guess.