Will FOMC Week Push Gold to New Highs?

Have you ever watched gold prices dance around major economic events, wondering if this is *the* moment they’ll soar to new heights? I have, and let me tell you, the anticipation around this week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting feels electric. Gold, or XAUUSD as traders know it, has been flirting with key levels, and with critical U.S. economic reports on the horizon, the stage is set for some serious market action. Could this be the week gold finally smashes through to a new all-time high? Let’s dive into the XAUUSD weekly forecast for August 18th to 22nd, 2025, and unpack what’s driving the glittery metal’s next move.

Why Gold Is Poised for a Big Week

Gold has always been a safe haven, a shiny beacon for investors when uncertainty clouds the markets. Right now, it’s sitting comfortably above $3350, having bounced back from a dip below $3336. The question isn’t just whether it’ll hold this level—it’s whether it can muscle through resistance and aim for the stars, potentially hitting $3500 or beyond. With the FOMC minutes, unemployment data, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech all dropping this week, volatility is practically guaranteed. Here’s my take: gold’s trajectory hinges on how these events shape investor sentiment, and I’m leaning toward a bullish breakout—unless the Fed throws a curveball.

Key Economic Events to Watch

This week’s economic calendar is packed with market movers that could either propel gold to new heights or send it stumbling. Let’s break down the big three events and what they mean for XAUUSD.

August 20: FOMC Meeting Minutes

The FOMC minutes are like a backstage pass to the Federal Reserve’s thinking. If they hint at a dovish stance—say, concerns about economic growth or openness to rate cuts—gold could get a serious boost. Why? Lower interest rates make non-yielding assets like gold more attractive. But if the minutes lean hawkish, signaling tighter policy or confidence in the economy, expect some downward pressure on XAUUSD as the U.S. dollar strengthens.

A dovish Fed is gold’s best friend, while hawkish tones can clip its wings.

– Market analyst

August 21: Unemployment Claims and PMIs

Thursday brings two data points that could sway gold’s path. Rising unemployment claims signal a weakening labor market, which often pushes investors toward safe havens like gold. Similarly, a manufacturing PMI below 50 (indicating contraction) could fuel bullish sentiment for XAUUSD. On the flip side, a robust services PMI might bolster the dollar, putting a damper on gold’s rally. It’s a tug-of-war, and I’m betting the labor market data will carry more weight this time around.

August 22: Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium is the week’s main event. His tone could make or break gold’s momentum. If he sounds dovish, hinting at economic slowdown or policy easing, gold could surge toward $3440 or even challenge its previous all-time high of $3500. But if Powell strikes a hawkish note, emphasizing sustained high rates, gold might face a pullback. I’ve seen these speeches spark wild swings before, so traders need to stay sharp.

Technical Analysis: Where Is Gold Headed?

Now, let’s get into the nitty-gritty of gold’s price action. The charts are telling a compelling story, and I’m excited to break it down across multiple timeframes. Whether you’re a day trader or a long-term investor, these levels are your roadmap.

Monthly Timeframe: The Big Picture

On the monthly chart, gold is in a clear uptrend, chasing external liquidity above $3440. This isn’t just a hunch—it’s backed by consistent higher highs and higher lows. The next big target? A test of the previous all-time high at $3500. If momentum holds, we could see gold push even further, potentially setting a new record. For long-term investors, this suggests a strong buy-and-hold opportunity, especially on dips.

Daily Timeframe: Support and Resistance

Zooming into the daily chart, gold has solid support between $3314–3281. This zone has held firm as a range low, making it a prime spot for buyers to step in. Resistance looms at $3420–3440, where sellers might try to cap the rally. If gold breaks above this, the path to $3500 looks wide open. My gut says we’ll see a test of this resistance early in the week, especially if the FOMC minutes lean dovish.

4-Hour and 15-Minute Charts: Short-Term Opportunities

For scalpers and short-term traders, the 4-hour chart shows a supply zone at $3420–3440, where a quick sell-off could offer a profitable trade. On the 15-minute chart, immediate buying opportunities emerge at $3334–3326, thanks to a fair value gap (FVG) and range low. These levels are perfect for nimble traders looking to capitalize on intraday moves.

Trading Strategies for the Week

So, how do you play this market? Gold’s setup offers opportunities for both bulls and bears, but the higher timeframes scream buy the dip. Let’s map out some actionable strategies to navigate this week’s volatility.

Buy Strategy: Capitalizing on Support

The daily support at $3314–3281 is your go-to for buying opportunities. If gold pulls back to this zone, especially after a dovish FOMC signal, consider entering a long position targeting $3420 or higher. For scalpers, the 15-minute FVG at $3334–3326 is a sweet spot for quick entries. Always set a tight stop-loss below the support to manage risk—markets can be ruthless.

• Enter long at $3314–3281 or $3334–3326.
• Target $3420 or $3440 for initial profits.
• Place stop-loss below $3280 to protect capital.

Sell Strategy: Playing the Resistance

If gold rallies to the $3420–3440 supply zone on the 4-hour chart, short-term traders might find a selling opportunity. This is especially tempting if Powell’s speech or the FOMC minutes come off hawkish. But beware—this is a counter-trend trade, so keep your position size small and your stops tight.

1. Wait for price to hit $3420–3440 with signs of rejection (e.g., bearish candlestick patterns).
2. Enter a short position targeting $3350 or lower.
3. Set stop-loss above $3445 to limit risk.

Trading gold is like surfing—catch the wave, but always know where the shore is.

– Veteran trader

Risk Management: Don’t Get Burned

With volatility on the horizon, risk management is non-negotiable. Never risk more than 1–2% of your account on a single trade. Use stop-losses religiously, and don’t chase the market if you miss a setup. I’ve seen too many traders blow up their accounts by getting greedy during FOMC weeks. Stay disciplined, and you’ll live to trade another day.

What Could Derail Gold’s Rally?

While I’m bullish on gold, it’s not a one-way street. A few factors could throw a wrench in the works. A hawkish Fed is the biggest threat—strong economic data or confidence in sustained high rates could lift the dollar and pressure gold. Geopolitical stability, though rare these days, could also reduce demand for safe-haven assets. And let’s not forget technical factors: a failure to break $3440 might trigger profit-taking, especially among short-term traders.

Gold’s Risk Factors:
  1. Hawkish Fed Policy (40% impact)
  2. Strong USD (30% impact)
  3. Technical Rejection at $3440 (20% impact)
  4. Geopolitical Calm (10% impact)

That said, the broader trend favors bulls. Economic uncertainty, inflation fears, and global tensions all play into gold’s hands. Even if we see a pullback, I’d view it as a buying opportunity rather than a reason to panic.

Investment Recommendations

For investors, gold remains a cornerstone asset in 2025. Whether you’re trading XAUUSD or holding physical gold, the current setup screams opportunity. Long-term investors should consider adding to positions on dips to $3314–3281, with an eye on $3500 or higher. Traders, meanwhile, can play both sides—buying support and selling resistance—but always with a bias toward the bullish trend.

Perhaps the most exciting part? Gold’s ability to thrive in chaos. With the FOMC, unemployment data, and Powell’s speech all converging, this week could be a turning point. My advice: stay nimble, watch the charts, and don’t let emotions cloud your judgment.

Final Thoughts: Gold’s Moment to Shine?

As I write this, gold feels like it’s on the cusp of something big. The charts are aligned, the economic calendar is loaded, and the market’s holding its breath. Will this FOMC week push XAUUSD to new all-time highs? I’m betting on it, but only time—and Powell—will tell. For now, keep your eyes on those key levels, manage your risk, and get ready for a wild ride.

In markets, as in life, timing is everything. Gold’s time might just be now.

What’s your take? Are you riding the gold wave or waiting for a dip? Either way, this week’s action is one you won’t want to miss.