Have you ever wondered what it takes to steer a nation of over 270 million people toward prosperity while navigating a stormy political past? Indonesia’s new president, Prabowo Subianto, is doing just that. His rise to power in 2025 has sparked both hope and unease, drawing comparisons to transformative global leaders. With bold promises to revive Indonesia’s economy and a controversial history that still lingers, his leadership is a high-stakes gamble for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
A Visionary or a Polarizing Figure?
At 73, Prabowo Subianto is no stranger to the spotlight. A former special forces commander, he’s a man of contradictions—admired by some as a patriot, feared by others for his past. His admiration for historical figures like Deng Xiaoping hints at his ambition to reshape Indonesia’s economy while maintaining a firm grip on power. But can he balance bold reforms with the democratic values he’s publicly questioned?
From Exile to the Presidency
Prabowo’s journey to the presidency reads like a political thriller. After the fall of his father-in-law, dictator Suharto, in 1998, he faced exile and allegations of human rights abuses. Yet, like a phoenix, he reinvented himself, returning to politics with a softer image—think “cuddly grandpa” rather than hardened general. His 2024 election victory was a masterclass in rebranding, but it left many wondering: has he truly changed?
Leadership requires resilience, vision, and the ability to evolve.
– Political analyst
His campaign leaned heavily on populist promises, like a $28 billion free-school-meals program, aimed at winning hearts and minds. But beneath the charm lies a man who once called democracy “messy” and “costly.” For investors, this raises a red flag: will his leadership prioritize stability over freedom?
Economic Ambitions: A New Dawn for Indonesia?
Prabowo’s economic vision is nothing short of audacious. He’s pledged to restore Indonesia’s growth to 8%, a level not seen since the early 2000s. His strategy draws inspiration from his father, Sumitro Djojohadikusomo, whose “Sumitronomics” emphasized equitable wealth distribution to ensure social stability. It’s a lofty goal, but recent events suggest the road ahead is bumpy.
Take the recent ousting of Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, a globally respected technocrat. Her dismissal sent shockwaves through markets, signaling potential instability. Investors loved her for her commitment to fiscal discipline, but Prabowo’s team saw her as a roadblock to their sweeping plans. Her replacement, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, lacks her gravitas but aligns closely with Prabowo’s vision. Is this a bold move or a risky bet?
- Free-school-meals program: A $28 billion initiative to support millions of children.
- Infrastructure push: Massive investments in roads, ports, and energy projects.
- Burden-sharing agreement: A controversial deal with the central bank to fund ambitious projects.
These policies aim to boost growth but come with risks. The central bank’s agreement to finance government projects blurs the lines between monetary and fiscal policy, a move that could erode investor confidence. In my view, this delicate balance between ambition and stability is where Prabowo’s leadership will be tested.
A Controversial Past Haunts the Present
Prabowo’s military background is a double-edged sword. His time in the elite Kopassus unit under Suharto’s regime gave him discipline and global exposure—he trained in the U.S. and lived in Switzerland, Singapore, and London. But it also tied him to allegations of abductions and torture, leading to a U.S. travel ban. While he’s never been convicted, the shadow of his past looms large.
Critics argue his return to power threatens Indonesia’s young democracy. Protests erupted in August 2025, with mobs targeting parliamentarians’ homes, reflecting public unease. Prabowo’s wealth—estimated at $127 million—and his business empire, built with his brother in industries like palm oil and coal, add fuel to accusations of elitism. Can a man so tied to the old regime truly lead a modern, democratic Indonesia?
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
– Political commentator
Personally, I find this tension fascinating. Prabowo’s ability to navigate his past while projecting a forward-looking image is a testament to his political savvy. But it’s a tightrope walk—lean too far into authoritarian tendencies, and he risks alienating both citizens and investors.
Global Implications: Why Investors Should Care
Indonesia is a heavyweight in emerging markets, with vast natural resources and a young, growing population. Prabowo’s policies could reshape its role in the global economy. His focus on infrastructure and social programs could attract foreign investment, but only if political stability holds. The recent unrest and the finance minister’s exit have already rattled markets—stocks dipped 3% in early September 2025.
| Economic Indicator | Current Status | Prabowo’s Target |
| GDP Growth | 5.1% (2024) | 8% by 2027 |
| Foreign Investment | $15B (2024) | $25B by 2028 |
| Public Debt | 39% of GDP | Maintain below 40% |
For global investors, Indonesia’s trajectory under Prabowo is a story to watch. His admiration for Deng Xiaoping suggests a focus on economic pragmatism, but his disdain for democratic inefficiencies could lead to heavy-handed governance. The question is: can he deliver growth without sacrificing stability?
The Deng Xiaoping Parallel
Prabowo’s fascination with Deng Xiaoping isn’t just admiration—it’s a blueprint. Deng transformed China by embracing market reforms while maintaining political control. Prabowo seems to want a similar legacy: rapid growth paired with strong leadership. But Indonesia isn’t China. Its diverse archipelago and democratic system demand a different approach.
Deng faced criticism for his authoritarian methods, yet his economic successes are undeniable. Prabowo, too, seems willing to weather controversy for results. His supporters see him as a visionary; detractors, a relic of a darker era. Perhaps the truth lies in the middle—a leader with bold ideas but a complicated past.
What’s Next for Indonesia?
As Prabowo settles into his presidency, the world is watching. His ability to deliver on promises like the free-school-meals program and infrastructure investments will define his legacy. But so will his approach to dissent. Recent protests show that not everyone buys his “cuddly grandpa” persona. For investors, the key is whether he can maintain economic stability while pushing reforms.
- Stabilize the economy: Restore investor confidence post-Sri Mulyani’s exit.
- Manage public unrest: Address protests without resorting to authoritarian measures.
- Attract foreign capital: Position Indonesia as a top destination for investment.
In my experience, leadership transitions in emerging markets are always a rollercoaster. Prabowo’s blend of charisma, ambition, and controversy makes him a figure worth watching. Whether he becomes Indonesia’s Deng Xiaoping or a cautionary tale depends on his next moves.
Prabowo Subianto’s presidency is a high-stakes experiment for Indonesia and the global economy. His vision could propel the nation to new heights, but his past and unconventional views on democracy raise valid concerns. For now, the world waits to see if his gamble pays off—or if it unravels under the weight of its own contradictions.
