Have you ever watched a cryptocurrency chart and felt like it was whispering secrets about its next big move? That’s exactly what’s happening with Hedera Hashgraph (HBAR) right now. Despite some rocky stablecoin issues, technical indicators like the Elliot Wave and a bullish flag pattern are hinting at a potential price surge that could catch investors’ attention. In this deep dive, we’ll unpack what’s driving HBAR’s price action, why its stablecoin supply is acting like a rollercoaster, and whether the looming spot HBAR ETF could be a game-changer.
Why HBAR Is Making Waves in the Crypto Market
The crypto market is a wild place, full of surprises and opportunities. HBAR, the native token of the Hedera Hashgraph network, is currently trading at around $0.24 as of September 21, 2025. That’s a 22% drop from its yearly high, but a whopping 88% gain from its lowest point this year. So, what’s fueling this momentum, and why are traders buzzing about a potential breakout? Let’s break it down.
The Power of Technical Analysis: Bullish Signals Galore
Charts don’t lie—or at least, they try not to. For HBAR, the daily timeframe is painting a compelling picture. The token has formed a double-bottom pattern at $0.1260, with a neckline at $0.2288, a level it hit back in May. This pattern is a classic bullish signal, often indicating that a price has found strong support and is ready to climb.
Technical patterns like the double-bottom are like a roadmap for traders—they show where the market’s been and hint at where it’s going.
– Crypto market analyst
What’s more, HBAR has confirmed this pattern with a break-and-retest, where the price briefly dipped back to test the neckline before pushing higher. This is a strong sign of continuation, suggesting the bulls are in control. Add to that a bullish flag pattern, and you’ve got a recipe for optimism. For those unfamiliar, a bullish flag looks like a short-term consolidation after a sharp upward move, often leading to another leg up.
Then there’s the Elliot Wave theory, a favorite among technical traders. HBAR appears to be in the second wave, a corrective phase that hasn’t retraced the full gains of the first wave. Its recent low aligned perfectly with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, a key threshold that often signals a healthy pullback before the next surge. If this holds, HBAR could be eyeing $0.3041, its July high, which is roughly a 28% jump from current levels. Sounds promising, right?
The ETF Buzz: A Catalyst for HBAR’s Rise?
One of the biggest catalysts for HBAR’s potential breakout is the anticipation around a spot HBAR ETF. The deadline for a decision is November 8, 2025, and the crypto community is holding its breath. Why? Because an ETF approval could open the floodgates for institutional investment, boosting HBAR’s liquidity and price. Hedera’s credentials—a market cap over $10 billion and daily trading volume exceeding $500 million—make it a strong candidate. Plus, it’s a homegrown American project, which might sway regulators.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to rule on other crypto ETFs, like those for Solana and XRP, in October. Those decisions could set the tone for HBAR’s fate. If approved, the ETF could launch quickly, as it’s already listed on the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). In my experience, these kinds of regulatory green lights can send prices soaring, as we’ve seen with Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the past.
- High liquidity: HBAR’s massive market cap and trading volume make it ETF-ready.
- Regulatory momentum: Recent crypto ETF approvals could pave the way for HBAR.
- Fast launch potential: DTCC listing means the ETF could hit the market soon after approval.
Stablecoin Woes: The Elephant in the Room
Now, let’s address the not-so-great news. Hedera’s stablecoin supply has been all over the place, and that’s putting it mildly. Data shows the stablecoin supply on the network dropped from $149 million to $69 million in just a few days. Earlier this year, it plummeted from $208 million to $54 million in a matter of days, then rebounded slightly. These wild swings are raising eyebrows. What’s going on here?
Nobody’s quite sure, but it’s possible a single entity—or a group of them—is moving large amounts of stablecoins on and off the network. This kind of volatility can spook investors, as it suggests instability in Hedera’s decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. Stablecoins are supposed to be, well, stable, so these fluctuations are a red flag for anyone eyeing HBAR as a long-term investment.
Stablecoin volatility can undermine confidence in a blockchain’s ecosystem, but it’s not always a dealbreaker for price growth.
– Blockchain researcher
Despite this, HBAR’s price hasn’t tanked, which is a testament to its resilience. Perhaps the market is more focused on the ETF potential and technical patterns than the stablecoin drama. Still, it’s a risk worth keeping an eye on.
Hedera’s Unique Edge in the Crypto Space
Why does Hedera stand out in the crowded crypto landscape? Unlike traditional blockchains, Hedera uses a hashgraph consensus mechanism, which is faster and more energy-efficient than proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems. This makes it a darling for enterprise use cases, from supply chain tracking to financial services. Its governing council, which includes heavyweights like Google and IBM, adds a layer of credibility that few altcoins can match.
But here’s the kicker: Hedera’s focus on real-world applications could make it a magnet for institutional investors, especially if the ETF gets the green light. Imagine a world where HBAR powers cross-border payments or supply chain transparency for global corporations. That’s the kind of vision that gets investors excited—and could drive HBAR’s price higher.
What Could Derail HBAR’s Bullish Run?
No investment is without risks, and HBAR is no exception. The stablecoin volatility we mentioned earlier is a big one. If the supply continues to swing wildly, it could signal deeper issues in Hedera’s DeFi ecosystem. Then there’s the ETF decision. A rejection by the SEC could send HBAR’s price tumbling, especially if the market has priced in an approval.
Broader market conditions also matter. If Bitcoin or Ethereum take a nosedive, altcoins like HBAR often follow suit. And let’s not forget regulatory uncertainty. The crypto space is still a regulatory minefield, and any unexpected crackdowns could dampen HBAR’s prospects.
| Risk Factor | Impact Level | Why It Matters |
| Stablecoin Volatility | High | Signals potential instability in Hedera’s DeFi ecosystem. |
| ETF Rejection | High | Could trigger a sharp price drop. |
| Market Downturn | Medium | Altcoins often move with Bitcoin and Ethereum. |
| Regulatory Crackdowns | Medium | Uncertain rules could spook investors. |
How to Approach HBAR as an Investor
So, should you jump on the HBAR bandwagon? That depends on your risk tolerance and investment goals. If you’re a technical trader, the bullish flag and Elliot Wave patterns are hard to ignore. They suggest HBAR could be gearing up for a 28% rally to $0.3041, and possibly higher if the ETF gets approved. But don’t get too starry-eyed—those stablecoin swings are a reminder that nothing’s guaranteed.
For long-term investors, Hedera’s real-world applications and strong governance make it a compelling pick. But I’d argue you should keep a close eye on the stablecoin situation and broader market trends. Diversifying your portfolio is always a smart move in crypto, where volatility is the name of the game.
- Monitor technical signals: Watch for a breakout above the bullish flag.
- Track ETF news: The November 8 deadline could be a game-changer.
- Assess stablecoin risks: Volatility could signal deeper issues.
- Stay diversified: Don’t put all your eggs in one crypto basket.
The Bigger Picture: Where Does HBAR Fit?
Zooming out, HBAR’s story is about more than just price charts and ETF hype. It’s about a blockchain trying to carve out a niche in a hyper-competitive market. Hedera’s hashgraph technology and enterprise focus set it apart, but it’s not immune to the growing pains that plague many altcoins. The stablecoin volatility is a reminder that even promising projects can hit speedbumps.
Yet, there’s something undeniably exciting about HBAR’s potential. Maybe it’s the promise of institutional adoption, or perhaps it’s the technical patterns screaming “buy.” Whatever the case, HBAR is a coin to watch as we head into the final months of 2025. Will it soar to new heights, or will the stablecoin drama hold it back? Only time will tell.
In crypto, the only certainty is uncertainty. But that’s what makes it so thrilling.
– Seasoned crypto investor
As we wrap up, I can’t help but feel a mix of excitement and caution about HBAR. The technicals are screaming bullish, the ETF could be a game-changer, and Hedera’s tech is top-notch. But those stablecoin swings? They’re a wild card. If you’re thinking about diving in, do your homework, keep an eye on the charts, and maybe—just maybe—you’ll catch the next big wave.
