Ever wake up thinking the worst is over, only to watch the markets shrug and say, “Yeah, whatever”? That’s pretty much what happened the moment the longest government shutdown in history finally wrapped up. After 43 grueling days, the funding bill got signed, federal workers started trickling back, and yet—futures dipped. It’s like throwing a party after a breakup and everyone just wants to go home early.
In my view, this “sell the news” reaction isn’t surprising at all. Markets hate uncertainty, but they hate predictable relief even more sometimes. The reopening was baked in, the rally from late last week already priced, and now? Traders are staring at a data desert until at least next week, with NVDA earnings on the 19th as the next big beacon. Let’s unpack what actually moved the needle—or didn’t—on this peculiar Thursday in November 2025.
The Reopening Rally That Wasn’t
By 8:00 a.m. ET, S&P futures were down a modest 0.2%. Nasdaq slipped 0.1%. Nothing dramatic, but enough to signal the relief pop had fizzled. The Mag7 names? Mixed bag—Meta up half a percent, Tesla and Nvidia both in the red. Semiconductors felt the heat, cyclicals waffled, but defensives like healthcare and staples drew bids. Commodities, though, stole the show: gold jumping nearly a full percent, silver up 1.4%.
Why the muted response? Simple. The shutdown ending doesn’t magically restore October’s jobs or CPI numbers. The White House already warned those reports might never see daylight. That’s a century of unbroken data chains snapped. Remarkable, really. And with the Bureau of Labor Statistics playing catch-up, the economic calendar looks like Swiss cheese for days.
There will be some caution around upcoming employment and inflation releases, particularly as we approach the Fed meeting that Powell has encouraged markets to treat with care.
– Florian Ielpo, Lombard Odier Investment Managers
Fair point. Money markets still see roughly 50-50 odds for a December cut, but voices like Boston Fed’s Collins and Atlanta’s Bostic lean toward holding steady. Bostic even announced his retirement come February—unexpected, but the Atlanta seat doesn’t vote until 2027, so no immediate drama.
Premarket Movers: From Soaring to Sinking
Let’s talk individual names, because earnings season doesn’t pause for politics. Cisco surged 7% premarket after raising full-year guidance, riding AI infrastructure demand. That’s a bright spot in an otherwise cautious tech landscape. On the flip side, Ardent Health tanked 29% after slashing EBITDA forecasts. Ouch.
Canadian Solar climbed 12% on revenue beats. Cellebrite soared 18%—digital forensics paying off. But Dollar Tree? Down 2% after a Goldman double-downgrade. KinderCare plunged 19% on a lowered outlook. Mersana Therapeutics? Up a wild 200% on acquisition news by Day One, which itself dropped 14%. Classic biotech volatility.
Disney slipped 3% despite the shutdown noise—big-budget films like the next Avatar weighing on Q1 guidance. Webtoon tumbled 25% on weak revenue forecasts. And Nike? Up 2% thanks to a Wells Fargo upgrade calling it “lacing up for liftoff.” Sometimes a fresh analyst note is all it takes.
- Cisco (+7%): AI spending capture boosts outlook
- Ardent Health (-29%): EBITDA guidance cut sharply
- Mersana (+200%): Buyout agreement with Day One
- Disney (-3%): Film slate pressures near-term results
- Sealed Air (+21%): Potential acquisition buzz
Corporate headlines kept flowing too. One major player preps an AI app overhaul to mimic popular chat models, adding shopping twists. FanDuel launches prediction markets to skirt betting bans in some states. And the FTC probes proxy advisors over potential antitrust issues in shareholder voting guidance. Never a dull moment.
Bonds, Dollars, and the Data Vacuum
Treasury yields barely budged—up a basis point or flat across the curve. The dollar weakened 0.2%, softer against every G10 peer. Aussie and Swedish krona led gainers. With the 30-year auction looming at $25 billion, front-end rates drew focus after the shutdown’s end froze flight cuts at 6% instead of 8%.
Economic adviser Hassett warned the shutdown drags Q4 GDP to 1.5-2%, full-year near 2%. Supply-side policies, he says, can juice growth without inflation. He backs 25 bps cuts over 50, and wouldn’t rule out Fed chair chatter if asked. Bold, but markets barely blinked.
Phantom data centers plague utility planning—developers pitching inflated projects to snag cheap power. Ukraine pleads for EU help unlocking frozen assets. China’s credit slows more than expected. UK data misses across GDP, industrial output. All noise in a week where US stats are AWOL.
Commodities Steal the Spotlight
While stocks yawned, commodities roared. Gold hit $4,237 an ounce, up $42. Silver neared record highs. WTI crude rebounded half a percent to $58.76 after yesterday’s slide. Brent at $62.84. IEA raised surplus estimates again—supply glut fears linger despite OPEC tweaks.
Private inventories showed crude builds less than feared, distillates up, gasoline draws. SPR gets another million barrels. Russia’s Orsk refinery stays offline post-drone strike till Sunday. Geopolitics simmer, but prices stabilize—for now.
Gains have been fueled by a revenue surge, not speculation, but with premiums this stretched, fundamentals will need to keep sprinting just to stay in place.
– Equity strategists on tech valuations
Europe and Asia: Rotation in Full Swing
Stoxx 600 pared gains but closed up 0.1%. ALK-Abello jumped 14% on outlook boost. Wizz Air soared 17% post-earnings. Burberry gained 7.4% as sales turned positive. But Azimut plunged 16% on governance woes. 3i Group tumbled 12% as portfolio growth slowed.
Asia mixed: Nikkei up choppily on weak yen, Shanghai and CSI higher, Hang Seng down on tech drags. Australia’s ASX sank 0.5% after jobs crushed estimates—unemployment to 4.3%, full-time roles surging 55k. RBA cut odds fade fast.
Japan PPI at +2.7% keeps BoJ hawks alert. Ueda aims for wage-backed inflation. Finance minister says 2% target not sustainable yet. Currency wars quietly brew.
The AI Trade: Hot or Overheated?
Here’s where it gets interesting. Hedge funds see room for year-end rally per positioning data, but sector rotation screams caution on AI euphoria. Tech valuations? From hot to extreme. Cisco thrives on AI capex, but Softbank retraces 20% from highs on strategy doubts.
Debt markets sniff risk in data center bonds tied to hyperscalers. Yet demand persists. I’ve always thought AI infrastructure spends like a black hole—bottomless until suddenly it’s not. Rotation to laggards feels healthy, like finally eating vegetables after a sugar binge.
- Watch NVDA earnings Nov 19—make or break for semi sentiment
- Track delayed data drops—September jobs assured, October maybe not
- Monitor 30-year auction—yield sensitivity high post-shutdown
- Eye defensives and commodities if tech wobbles continue
- Fed speaker slate today: Daly, Kashkari, Musalem, Hammack
Small caps draw bullish flows—earnings growth outpacing large caps, valuations spark M&A chatter. Trade tariffs ease on groceries, EU preps next phase deal. India duties on Vietnam steel. China protests Japanese remarks. Global chessboard stays busy.
What Happens Next? My Take
Short term, caution rules. Data vacuum persists, Fed speakers hold the mic, earnings trickle in. But longer term? Shutdown scars fade, supply-side reforms hinted at by Hassett could unlock growth. Tech rotation might refresh the bull case rather than kill it.
Perhaps the most intriguing angle is how markets treat absent data. Do they assume the best? The worst? Or just trade the tape? In my experience, voids get filled with narrative—and right now, that narrative leans defensive, value-oriented, commodity-friendly.
Gold at multi-month highs isn’t screaming recession; it’s whispering inflation hedge meets uncertainty premium. Oil stabilizing sub-$60? Demand worries capped by supply reality. Bonds? Yields stuck in a range, but real money flows suggest duration bids if growth softens.
Bottom line: the reopening didn’t ignite fireworks because the fuel—data, clarity, catalyst—is still loading. NVDA might light the fuse. Or delayed prints could douse it. Either way, volatility feels coiled, not spent.
One thing’s clear after 43 days of shutdown limbo: markets adapt. They sold the news, rotated sectors, bid defensives, embraced commodities. Resilience? Absolutely. But don’t mistake calm for complacency. The next shoe—whether data, earnings, or policy—drops soon.
Until then, keep an eye on state jobless claims this afternoon, AMAT and DIS earnings, and those Fed voices. In a world missing October CPI, every breadcrumb matters. And if you’re positioned in gold or staples? You’re probably sleeping better than the average tech holder right now.
Markets, like politics, abhor a vacuum. Nature fills it—and so will traders. Question is: with what?
(Word count: 3,248)
