Have you ever watched something you were absolutely certain would only go up suddenly start bleeding red day after day? That uneasy feeling in your stomach when the charts you refresh every five minutes look like a horror movie? Yeah, welcome to mid-November 2025.
Over the past week the entire crypto space has been hit hard. Bitcoin dropped below $94,000 for the principal time since early May, Ethereum is flirting with the $3,000 zone again, and altcoins are getting absolutely destroyed. What started as “healthy profit-taking” now feels a lot more like the early stages of a proper bear phase. And the data pouring in isn’t exactly comforting.
What’s Really Driving This Crypto Crash Right Now?
Let’s be honest – markets don’t plunge this fast without a combination of triggers. Some are technical, some are psychological, and some are simply cold, hard on-chain reality. The scariest part? Almost all the signals are flashing red at the same time.
Stablecoin Balances Are Collapsing on Exchanges
Forget the price charts for a second. The single most alarming metric right now is what’s happening with stablecoins sitting on centralized exchanges.
In just seven days, the total stablecoin balance across major platforms fell from roughly $89 billion to $85 billion – the lowest level since early October. That’s $4 billion gone in a flash. When stablecoins leave exchanges in this volume, it almost always means one thing: investors are cashing out or moving to cold storage because they no longer trust the near-term outlook.
I’ve watched these flows for years, and I can tell you this kind of rapid drawdown rarely happens during “healthy dips.” It’s the digital equivalent of people quietly walking to the exits while the music is still playing.
When stablecoins flow out this fast, someone, somewhere, is hitting the sell button hard – or preparing to.
Fear & Greed Index Hits Extreme Fear Territory
Remember when the Fear & Greed Index was pushing 90 just a couple of weeks ago? Those were the days. Today it sits at 17. Seventeen. That’s the lowest reading since the spring tariff panic.
For anyone new to this metric, anything below 20 is considered “extreme fear.” Historically, we see capitulation selling around these levels. The crowd literally panics and dumps coins at any price. It’s uncomfortable, it’s emotional, and – ironically – it’s often when the smartest money starts looking for entries.
- Greed → Overconfidence → Parabolic moves
- Fear → Doubt → Sharp corrections
- Extreme Fear → Panic → Potential generational buying zones
We’re firmly in stage three right now.
Technical Damage Is Piling Up Fast
Charts don’t lie, even when we wish they would. Bitcoin has now confirmed two deeply bearish patterns almost simultaneously.
First, we saw the infamous death cross between the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages. I know some people dismiss moving average crosses as outdated, but when combined with everything else happening, it adds serious weight to the bear case.
Second, price formed a textbook double-top around $124,500 with the neckline near $107,000. Once that neckline broke, the measured move pointed toward the mid-to-high $80,000s. Guess where the next major support sits? Around $88,700 – the March 2025 swing high. That’s only another 6-7% lower from current levels.
The Average Directional Index (ADX) on the daily chart just crossed above 35 and keeps climbing. Translation: the downtrend isn’t running out of steam yet; it’s actually gaining strength.
Retail Is Selling, Whales Are… Complicated
On-chain analytics paint a fascinating picture. Retail-sized wallets (under 1 BTC) have been net distributors for weeks. That’s classic capitulation behavior – smaller players throwing in the towel after watching their unrealized gains evaporate.
Whale behavior is more mixed. Some large entities are indeed moving coins to exchanges (potential selling), but others continue accumulating quietly through OTC desks. The net result? Exchange balances for Bitcoin are creeping higher, which is rarely bullish in the short term.
What Could Stop the Bleeding?
Two major events this week could shift sentiment dramatically.
First, Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday. If the AI darling smashes expectations again, risk assets – including crypto – could catch a serious bid. Strong guidance would reinforce the “AI narrative” that helped propel markets higher earlier this year.
Second, the latest FOMC minutes drop the same day. Markets are currently pricing in a decent chance of a December pause after recent cuts. Any hint of dovish language could spark a relief rally across risk markets.
Of course, the opposite is also true. Weak numbers from Nvidia or hawkish surprises from the Fed could accelerate the downside.
Historical Perspective – We’ve Been Here Before
Let’s zoom out for a second. Crypto has a habit of delivering brutal 30-50% drawdowns even inside broader bull markets. Think May-June 2021, think November 2021 to January 2022, think the FTX collapse in 2022.
Each time, extreme fear felt permanent. Each time, Bitcoin eventually put in a higher high. The question isn’t whether this correction is scary – it absolutely is. The question is whether the macro bull case (institutional adoption, spot ETFs, potential nation-state buying, improving regulation) has fundamentally broken.
From everything I can see, it hasn’t.
Where Are the Realistic Price Targets?
If this downtrend continues – and momentum suggests it might – here are the levels I’m watching:
- $88,700 – March 2025 high, major psychological support
- $81,000-$83,000 – 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move from October 2024 lows
- $74,000-$76,000 – Previous all-time high zone from 2021 (often acts as support in bull markets)
Anything substantially below $70,000 would start challenging the broader bull-market thesis and likely trigger a much more prolonged bear phase.
Final Thoughts – Panic or Opportunity?
Right now the crypto market feels like it’s stuck in quicksand. Every attempt to bounce gets sold, fear dominates headlines, and stablecoins keep marching out the door.
But I’ve learned over the years that the moments when everything feels hopeless are often when the best opportunities quietly present themselves. Extreme fear doesn’t last forever. Capitulation is usually the final stage before exhaustion sets in.
Whether you’re sitting on cash waiting to deploy, already underwater and fighting the urge to sell, or simply watching from the sidelines – stay disciplined. Markets have a way of humiliating the largest number of participants possible before reversing.
We’re not there yet. But we might be getting closer than most people think.
Whatever happens this week with Nvidia and the Fed minutes will likely set the tone for the rest of 2025’s final stretch. Until then, expect volatility, expect fear, and – if history is any guide – expect the unexpected.
