Remember when XRP was flirting with $3.60 just a few months ago and everyone was calling for $5, $10, maybe even higher? Yeah, me too. Fast forward to today and the token is licking its wounds around $2.12 – a price we haven’t seen in six weeks. It’s not a total collapse, but it sure feels like someone turned the music off at the party.
The drop caught a lot of newer holders off guard. After all, the broader crypto market is still sitting pretty high – Bitcoin above $90k, Ethereum pushing $3,000 again. So why is XRP the kid picking up his ball and going home? Let’s dig in, because the story here is more nuanced than simple “profit-taking.”
The Quiet Correction Nobody Saw Coming
Over the past week XRP has been trapped in a fairly tight range between roughly $2.12 and $2.50. That might sound stable, but zoom out and you see the damage: the token is now down more than 41% from its July all-time high near $3.65. And unlike some of the explosive corrections we’ve seen in smaller altcoins, this one has been eerily calm – almost polite.
Daily trading volume tells part of the story. Spot volume sits at $4.77 billion right now, down almost 30% day-over-day. Futures volume isn’t much better – down 26% to about $6.5 billion while open interest barely budged, slipping less than 1% to $3.71 billion. Translation? Traders aren’t fighting. They’re closing positions, pocketing gains (or cutting losses), and stepping to the sidelines.
I’ve watched enough cycles to know that low-volume sell-offs often hurt more than the explosive ones. When everyone is screaming and panic-selling, you at least get a capitulation spike that clears the weak hands. Quiet grinding lower? That tends to shake out the patient money – and that’s exactly what seems to be happening.
41.5% of Supply Underwater – A Heavy Anchor
Perhaps the most worrying signal right now comes straight from the blockchain itself. Roughly 41.5% of all XRP tokens – that’s over 26 billion coins – are currently held at a loss. Think about that for a second. Even though the price is still four times higher than it was a year ago, more than two fifths of the supply is sitting on unrealized losses.
Anytime you have that large a cohort underwater, every bounce becomes a potential exit door. Holders who bought the hype at $2.80, $3.20, or higher aren’t necessarily panicking, but they’re definitely tempted to “get whole” the moment price ticks back toward their average. That creates overhead supply that’s tough to absorb.
When nearly half the supply is desperate to break even, rallies tend to get sold faster than you can say “relief bounce.” History is littered with examples.
We saw similar setups in 2021 when XRP tried to break out multiple times after the SEC lawsuit news, only to get rejected because millions of bags from 2018 were waiting to get out at breakeven. The psychology hasn’t changed.
The ETF Hope vs Reality Check
On paper, everything should be lining up perfectly for XRP right now. Institutional interest is arguably at all-time highs. Canary Capital’s spot XRP ETF launched last week and pulled in a respectable $58 million on day one – not earth-shattering, but solid for a brand-new product.
Bitwise’s filing could start trading as early as tomorrow (November 20), and the smart money expects decent inflows there too. Add in the broader “risk-on” environment after the recent U.S. political clarity, and you’d think XRP would be ripping higher.
Instead, we get the classic crypto two-step: institutions buy the rumor (or the filing), retail and whales sell the news (or the launch). It’s frustrating, but it’s also incredibly common. The first few days of ETF trading often see profit-taking from early believers who positioned months ago.
- Canary Capital ETF launches → price dips on profit-taking
- Bitwise ETF expected tomorrow → probably more selling into strength
- Next batch of filings (Franklin Templeton, 21Shares, etc.) → same script likely repeats
Don’t get me wrong – the long-term impact of ETFs is overwhelmingly positive. Billions in new capital will flow in over the coming quarters. But short-term? These launches can act like local tops until the initial supply overhang clears.
Technical Picture: Losing Momentum Fast
Let me pull up the daily chart for a second, because it’s screaming caution. After breaking out of a multi-month symmetrical triangle in late summer, XRP put in a series of lower highs: late September, mid-October, early November. Each rally met less enthusiasm than the last.
The $2.56 zone has rejected price three separate times now. That’s no longer just resistance – it’s a brick wall. Meanwhile, the 10-day, 20-day, 50-day, and even 200-day moving averages are all sloping downward. When the long-term average turns bearish, you have to respect it.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 38 – not oversold yet, but getting close to the zone where bounces often start. The problem? Bounces in a downtrend tend to fail unless volume explodes higher, and right now volume is doing the exact opposite.
Key levels I’m watching:
- Immediate support: $2.12 (today’s low – lose this and panic could kick in)
- Next major zone: $1.80 – $1.85 (previous breakout area and high-volume node)
- Deeper air pocket: $1.60 (where buyers stepped in aggressively last time)
- First sign of strength: reclaim $2.30, then clear $2.56 with volume
Honestly, the path of least resistance looks lower until we get a catalyst strong enough to overwhelm the current selling pressure.
So When Does This End?
Good question. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ve been around long enough to spot patterns. Corrections like this usually resolve in one of three ways:
- Time-based washout – price grinds sideways-to-lower for weeks until the weak hands are exhausted and volume dries up completely. Then a sharp reversal.
- Catalyst-driven reversal – a big ETF inflow number, positive Ripple legal development, or broader market melt-up drags XRP higher despite the overhead supply.
- Full capitulation – we break $2.00, panic ensues, and the final washout clears the market for a multi-month bottoming process.
Right now, scenario 1 feels most likely. The market isn’t panicking – it’s bored. Bored markets tend to stay boring until something forces attention. That “something” could be the Bitwise launch numbers, could be year-end portfolio rebalancing, or could be Bitcoin finally breaking $100k and dragging everything higher.
Either way, the setup reminds me a lot of late 2020. XRP spent months grinding lower after the SEC lawsuit drop, trading in the $0.20s while everyone wrote it off. Then the spark hit and it ran 10x in a matter of weeks. I’m not calling for that exact outcome, but I am saying patient capital tends to get rewarded in this space – eventually.
Final Thoughts – Stay Calm, Stay Selective
If you’re sitting on profits from lower levels, taking some off the table around these ETF launches isn’t the worst idea. If you’re underwater from the $3+ zone, averaging down blindly is risky while momentum is still negative. And if you’re on the sidelines? Waiting for either a clear break above $2.56 or a washout below $2.00 probably gives you the cleanest risk/reward.
XRP has been declared dead more times than I can count. Every single time, the obituary was premature. The fundamentals – institutional adoption, payment utility, regulatory clarity progress – haven’t disappeared just because price is taking a breather.
Markets move in cycles. Right now we’re in the “doubt” phase. The “hope” phase usually shows up when least expected.
Stay patient out there.
