I still remember the exact moment in March 2020 when Bitcoin hit $3,800. My phone wouldn’t stop buzzing with liquidation alerts, friends were panicking, and every headline screamed that crypto was dead—again. Two months later we were already above $10,000 and the greatest bull run in history had quietly started while most people were still hiding under their desks.
Fast forward to right now, November 2025. The scene feels eerily familiar. Bitcoin just kissed $80,000 after a vicious drop from the mid-90s, altcoins are down 30-60% in weeks, and the timeline is once again flooded with “told you so” posts. Yet when I pull up the exact same indicators that saved my portfolio back then, every single one is flashing the same extreme readings we only see at major cycle bottoms.
So let’s cut through the noise and look at the hard evidence. Here’s why this crash might be running out of steam faster than most expect—and why the next leg up could catch a lot of people flat-footed.
The One Chart That Keeps Me Calm Right Now
If you only look at one metric during crypto winters, make it the Fear & Greed Index. Right now it’s sitting at 10—literally the lowest reading all year and deep into “Extreme Fear” territory.
Why does this matter? Because history is brutally consistent on this point. Every single time the index has dropped into the single digits, Bitcoin has been within weeks (sometimes days) of a major reversal.
May 2025? Index hit 8 → Bitcoin ripped to new all-time highs in less than a month. July 2022? Touched 6 → started the entire 2023-2024 rally. The pattern is almost boring at this point.
When fear is this widespread, the contrarian money starts moving in quietly. The crowd is never right at the exact turning points.
And it’s not just sentiment. The actual price action is now screaming oversold on every timeframe.
The Entire Market Just Hit Oversold Levels We Haven’t Seen Since 2022
Take the total crypto market cap RSI on the weekly chart. It’s currently at 24. That’s not just oversold—that’s the kind of reading you get once every few years.
To give you context, the last time we saw weekly RSI this low was November 2022, right as FTX collapsed and Bitcoin bottomed near $15,600. Within six months we were above $40,000.
Zoom out even further and you’ll notice something fascinating: every major bear market low (2018, 2020, 2022) produced an RSI reading below 30 on the weekly. We just printed 24. Mission accomplished.
Does this guarantee an immediate moonshot? Of course not. But it does mean the selling pressure is reaching exhaustion levels that have historically marked “get ready” moments.
The Biggest Leverage Flush Since 2021 Is Almost Complete
One of the least talked-about but most important developments right now is the collapse in futures open interest.
At the peak earlier this year, total crypto futures OI topped $320 billion. Today? We’re down to roughly $123 billion. That’s more than 60% wiped out in a matter of months.
- Over-leveraged longs have been rinsed
- Degens who were 100x long at $90k+ are gone
- Forced sellers are running out of margin
This is what a healthy reset looks like. The market is literally cleansing itself of the exact speculative excess that fueled the final parabolic stage earlier this year.
In my experience, once open interest drops this hard and liquidations start drying up, the path of least resistance flips from down to up surprisingly fast.
Macro Tailwinds Are Lining Up Perfectly
Let’s zoom out for a second because the broader financial backdrop is arguably more bullish than it was six months ago.
The Federal Reserve has already started cutting rates, global M2 money supply is expanding again, and risk assets across the board (tech stocks, gold, even commodities) are showing strength despite the crypto drawdown.
Remember: Bitcoin doesn’t move in a vacuum. When liquidity conditions loosen, capital flows toward the highest beta opportunities. And right now, crypto is the ultimate high-beta play sitting at deeply discounted levels.
The Santa Claus Rally Setup Is Real
December has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. Since 2013, BTC has finished December positive in 9 out of 12 years—with an average return around 35%.
Combine that seasonal tendency with the technical and sentiment extremes we’re seeing today, and you have what technicians call a “confluence of factors.” Translation: a lot of things that usually lead to big moves up are stacking on the same side of the trade.
What Could Still Go Wrong (Because Balance Matters)
Look, I’m not here to sell you hopium without context. There are still risks.
- Geopolitical shocks could trigger another risk-off wave
- Regulatory headlines can always appear out of nowhere
- We could still see one final capitulation wick lower (wouldn’t shock me to test high $70ks briefly)
But here’s the thing: even if we get that final flush, the reward/risk at current levels is heavily skewed to the upside for anyone with a 6-12 month horizon.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that the moment everyone agrees “this time is different” and “crypto is broken” is usually the exact moment smart money starts accumulating quietly.
The blood in the streets right now? That’s not a warning sign. For those who’ve seen this movie before, it’s starting to look a lot like the final act before the credits roll and the next bull market trailer begins.
Stay skeptical, stay solvent, and keep an eye on those extreme fear readings. They have an annoying habit of being right at the worst possible moment—for the bears.
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