Remember when everyone was calling Hedera the “enterprise blockchain killer” back in 2021? Yeah, me too. Then the bear market came, activity slowed to a crawl, and HBAR spent most of 2025 looking like it was stuck in quicksand. But something interesting happened over the last few days – the chart started whispering things that made me sit up and actually zoom in for once.
I’m not talking about some random green candle here and there. We’re talking multiple, overlapping bullish setups that rarely line up this cleanly. When that happens, you don’t ignore it. You pay attention.
Why Hedera Got Crushed (And Why That Might Not Matter Anymore)
Let’s not sugarcoat it – the past few months have been rough for HBAR holders. Since the summer highs, the price has been carving lower highs and lower lows inside a textbook descending parallel channel. On-chain metrics followed the price action lower too.
Total value locked in Hedera DeFi applications got absolutely wrecked, dropping almost 50% since July. Stablecoin supply on the network? Down from over $220 million to barely $70 million. Even the launch of spot HBAR ETFs – which should have been rocket fuel – turned into a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” event.
Investors looked at the anemic flows (just $76 million into HBAR ETFs compared to half a billion for Solana) and basically shrugged. Broader market headwinds didn’t help either. Renewed tariff talk, macro uncertainty – all the usual suspects dragged everything down.
But here’s the thing I always come back to: markets have a way of over-punishing assets when sentiment is at its worst. And right now? Sentiment on Hedera is ice cold. That’s exactly when the smartest reversals tend to start.
The Triple Bottom That Nobody’s Talking About
Zoom out to the daily chart and something jumps out immediately: three distinct touches around the $0.123 zone since early fall. Not two – three. That’s the definition of a triple bottom, one of the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis.
Each time price kissed that level, selling pressure dried up and buyers stepped in harder. Volume spikes on the final two tests were noticeably larger. The third touch in particular saw a sharp V-shaped recovery – classic accumulation behavior.
- First bottom (August): Weak bounce, low conviction
- Second bottom (October): Stronger bounce, higher volume
- Third bottom (November): Sharp reversal, massive green candle
The neckline of this pattern sits near $0.228. Clear that level with conviction and the measured move takes us close to $0.28 – roughly 98% above current prices. Yeah, I had to double-check that math too.
The Descending Channel Breakout Attempt
Overlay the triple bottom with the broader structure and things get even more interesting. HBAR has been trapped inside that descending channel I mentioned earlier – lower highs, lower lows, the whole bearish package.
Except now price is pressing hard against the upper trendline of that channel. We saw a fakeout above it last week that quickly reversed, but the retest of the line this week came with expanding volume and momentum divergence.
A successful breakout from a multi-month descending channel, especially when combined with a triple bottom at the lows, dramatically shifts the probability in favor of the bulls.
I’ve watched hundreds of these setups over the years. When the channel break aligns with a major reversal pattern like this? That’s the kind of confluence that makes professional traders sit up and take notice.
Futures Traders Are Suddenly Very Interested
One of my favorite leading indicators is what’s happening in the derivatives market. And right now, HBAR futures are screaming that something has changed.
Open interest jumped more than 13% in the last 24 hours alone. More importantly, the long/short ratio is pushing toward 1:1 after spending weeks heavily tilted toward shorts. That’s not random noise – that’s smart money repositioning.
When open interest rises alongside price and the long/short ratio improves, it’s usually because new money is coming in on the long side. Speculators don’t pile into longs at the bottom unless they see something the spot market hasn’t fully priced in yet.
Momentum Indicators Are Finally Turning
Technical traders live and die by their oscillators, and for good reason. Right now both MACD and RSI are doing exactly what you want to see at major inflection points.
- MACD: The fast line is curling up and threatening a bullish crossover for the first time since July
- RSI: Bounced hard from oversold territory and is now pushing above 50 – a shift from bearish to bullish momentum
- Stochastic: Already in overbought on lower timeframes, showing strong upside conviction
These aren’t lagging indicators catching up – they’re leading indicators flashing green at the exact moment multiple patterns are resolving higher. That’s about as good as it gets from a timing perspective.
What Could Go Wrong (Because Something Always Can)
Look, I’ve been doing this long enough to know that no setup is ever 100%. There are always risks, and with Hedera they’re pretty obvious.
A decisive close back below $0.123 would completely invalidate the triple bottom and likely trigger another leg lower. The broader crypto market is still correlated to Bitcoin, and any sharp BTC correction would drag everything down with it – HBAR included.
On-chain metrics remain weak. Until we see TVL and stablecoin supply start trending higher again, the fundamental picture lags the technical one. That disconnect can persist for longer than most traders stay solvent.
My Take: This Setup Is Worth Respect
Here’s where I land after staring at these charts for way too many hours: this is one of the cleanest multi-pattern reversal setups I’ve seen in the altcoin space all year.
Everything is lining up – price structure, volume profile, momentum indicators, and now derivatives positioning. When that much confluence hits at the same time, the probability of follow-through goes up dramatically.
Does that mean HBAR is guaranteed to pump 98%? Of course not. Markets love to humble anyone who gets too certain. But from a risk/reward perspective, the current setup heavily favors the bulls.
If you’ve been waiting for a high-conviction entry on Hedera after watching it bleed for months, this might be the signal you’ve been looking for. The chart is finally speaking – and for the first time in a long time, it’s saying something worth listening to.
Sometimes the best trades aren’t the ones that feel obvious when everyone’s bullish. Sometimes they’re the ones that look impossible right until they’re not. Hedera might just be setting up for one of those moments.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile and you can lose your entire investment. Always do your own research and consider consulting a professional advisor.
