Remember when everyone said meme coins were dead? Yeah, me too. Yet here we are on November 24, 2025, watching Dogecoin quietly coil inside one of the most textbook bullish patterns you’ll ever see—right as the very first spot DOGE ETFs are about to hit the tape.
I’ve been around crypto long enough to know that timing is everything, and honestly, the setup we’re looking at right now feels eerily familiar… but also completely different. Let me walk you through why this week could be the moment the “people’s crypto” finally wakes up again.
The Calm Before the Storm Nobody’s Talking About
Let’s be brutally honest—Dogecoin has been painful to watch lately. Down roughly 26% in the past month and more than 53% off its September peak, the original meme coin has been bleeding alongside the broader market. At $0.14 it’s trading at levels we haven’t seen since spring, and the futures open interest tells the same sad story: from $6 billion in October down to a measly $1.4 billion now.
But here’s what caught my eye. While everyone was busy panicking about macro headwinds and the Fed possibly skipping another rate cut, something much more interesting has been forming on the daily chart.
A Falling Wedge That Screams Reversal
If you’ve traded for more than five minutes, you already know falling wedges are among the most reliable bullish continuation/reversal patterns out there. The price gets squeezed between two downward-sloping trend lines that keep getting closer and closer until—bam—something has to give.
Dogecoin has been tracing this exact structure for months. The upper resistance line has been rejected multiple times, each lower high perfectly respectful, while the lower support has caught the price again and again with higher lows. Classic compression.
Right now we’re sitting literally on the apex. One decent green candle and we’re out. And guess what loves to act as the spark for that exact candle? Institutional product launches.
Multiple ETFs Ready to Drop—This Isn’t Just Grayscale
Most people are only talking about Grayscale’s GDOG trust going live today, but the pipeline is actually stacked. 21Shares has their filing ready to roll in the coming weeks, and there are whispers of at least two more issuers waiting in the wings.
Think back to what happened when the Bitcoin spot ETFs launched. Think about Ethereum this summer. Now remember the brief but violent pump XRP saw just two weeks ago when the first regulated Ripple product hit the market—up almost 20% in a single day before reality set in.
History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes—and meme coins rhyme louder than anything else in this space.
The mechanics are simple: regulated vehicles = institutional on-ramp = fresh capital that wasn’t able to touch the asset before. Even if only a fraction of that money flows in, the supply shock on a coin with Dogecoin’s liquidity profile can be explosive.
Technical Targets If We Actually Break
Let’s do some quick math the old-fashioned way. Measure the height of the wedge at its widest point (roughly $0.18 back in early summer) and add that to a confirmed breakout above $0.15. That gives us a measured move around $0.33 in the optimistic scenario.
More conservative traders are eyeing the psychological $0.25 zone first—still a clean 70%+ from current levels and right where the 200-day EMA sits. That’s the line in the sand for me. Clear that, and the next stop becomes the previous all-time high territory.
- Initial breakout target: $0.18 – $0.20 (previous swing highs)
- Measured move conservative: $0.25
- Full wedge target: $0.33+
- Psychological resistance beyond: $0.50 then $1.00
Momentum Indicators Are Finally Turning
It’s not just the pattern. The internals are starting to line up too. The MACD just printed a bullish crossover for the first time since September—nothing earth-shattering yet, but definitely the first green shoot. More importantly, the RSI bounced hard off the 30 oversold line and is curling higher. That’s the exact behavior you want to see at the end of a corrective wave.
Volume profile also shows heavy accumulation between $0.12 and $0.15 over the past six weeks. Someone has been buying every dip while the headlines screamed “crypto winter is back.”
Why This Time Actually Feels Different
Look, I’ve been burned by “this time is different” narratives more times than I care to admit. But there are a couple of factors that genuinely separate this setup from the countless fake-outs we’ve seen before.
First, the broader crypto regulatory environment in the U.S. has shifted dramatically in the past year. Lawmakers who once called Bitcoin “rat poison” are now openly courting the industry. Getting a meme coin ETF approved—even if it started as a joke—is the ultimate flex of how far we’ve come.
Second, retail exhaustion is real. The people who were going to sell already sold. The ones still holding are the believers, the HODLers, the ones who remember 2021 and refuse to leave. That’s the kind of hands you want underneath a breakout.
The Risks Nobody Wants to Talk About
Of course, it’s not all sunshine and lambos. The macro backdrop is still murky—rates might stay higher for longer, geopolitical tension isn’t going away, and Bitcoin dominance is flirting with levels that usually crush altcoins.
We could absolutely see a “sell the news” event the second these ETFs go live. We’ve watched it happen with literally every major product launch since 2021. The XRP example from two weeks ago is still fresh: 18% pump, then right back down when the broader market sneezed.
And let’s not pretend Dogecoin has fundamentals in the traditional sense. It’s still a proof-of-work joke coin with infinite inflation. If sentiment flips, the downside is always brutal.
My Personal Playbook for This Week
Here’s how I’m positioning—take it or leave it. I’m holding a core bag I’ve had since the single-digit days (yes, I’m that guy), but I added a small leveraged long on the perpetual futures market with a tight stop below $0.125. If we lose that level, the wedge invalidates and I’m out—no ego.
On the upside, I’ll start peeling off portions above $0.20 and let the rest ride toward $0.25 with a trailing stop. Greed kills more traders than fear ever does.
Either way, this week is going to be wild. The combination of technical compression, multiple catalyst events, and a market that desperately needs a narrative could create the perfect storm.
Maybe the dog finally has its day again. Or maybe we look back in a month and laugh at how obvious the trap was. That’s crypto—beautiful, ridiculous, and never boring.
Whatever happens, I’ll be watching the tape like everyone else. And if that falling wedge resolves the way it’s supposed to? Well… see you on the moon. Or at least at twenty-five cents.
