Ever have one of those weeks where the market feels like it’s trying to give you whiplash on purpose? Last week was exactly that – brutal sell-offs, AI bubble panic, Bitcoin cratering, oil sliding, you name it. And then Monday morning rolls around and suddenly everything looks… fine again? Futures are green, tech names are bouncing, and the narrative has done a full 180. Welcome back to Wall Street, folks.
A Classic Relief Rally – But Don’t Get Too Comfortable
Let’s be honest: the mood shift feels a little too convenient. After the S&P 500 posted its worst week since early October and the Nasdaq got absolutely pummeled, a bounce was overdue. But the catalysts that showed up overnight actually make sense when you line them up.
First, Alibaba dropped a bombshell in Hong Kong: its re-branded Qwen AI app hit 10 million downloads in its first week. That’s the kind of headline that reminds everyone the AI story isn’t dead – it just took a quick nap. Alibaba ADRs jumped almost 4% pre-market here in the US, and that positivity spilled over into the entire Mag-7 complex.
Second, comments late Friday from New York Fed President John Williams were interpreted (probably correctly) as dovish. Suddenly the odds of a December rate cut are back around 70%. Funny how fast the narrative flips when people need an excuse to buy.
Pre-Market Snapshot – Who’s Winning Monday Morning
As of 8:15 a.m. ET, here’s the quick scoreboard:
- S&P 500 futures +0.6% (off overnight highs but still solidly green)
- Nasdaq 100 futures +0.8% – tech doing the heavy lifting again
- Alphabet leading Mag-7 with a 3%+ pop
- Nvidia and Broadcom quietly adding to last week’s pain relief
- Bitcoin trying to hold $86,000 after another European-open flush
- Crude oil bouncing off lows but still down on the day
- 10-year Treasury yield dipping toward 4.05%
In individual names, Biogen is ripping higher after Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic pill flopped in Alzheimer’s trials – funny how bad news for one pharma giant becomes fantastic news for another. Meanwhile Green Dot is up 17% on a take-private deal and WeRide ADRs are flying on robotaxi progress. Classic Monday madness.
The AI Narrative Refuses to Die
Look, I’ve been around long enough to know that when something falls as hard as AI-related names did last week, the first bounce always feels suspicious. But Alibaba’s download numbers are concrete. Ten million people decided they needed another AI assistant on their phone in seven days. That’s not hype – that’s actual adoption.
Add in the chatter that the Trump administration might actually let Nvidia ship H200 chips to China again, and suddenly the “AI trade is dead” crowd from Thursday looks a little premature. Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson – who’s been bearish for ages – even came out saying the pullback looks like a buying opportunity into 2026. When the perma-bear flips constructive, you take notice.
“There’s still a positive backdrop for the tech sector. Typically, seasonality is pretty good walking into Thanksgiving and the end of the year.”
– Kevin Thozet, Carmignac Gestion
Bond Market Yawns – For Now
Treasuries are a little richer across the curve, but nothing dramatic. We’ve got a $69 billion 2-year auction at 1 p.m. ET today – the first of the holiday-shortened week’s refunding. With the curve bull-flattening and the dollar softer, fixed income seems content to take a backseat to equities for the moment.
One thing I’m watching: the massive corporate bond issuance we’ve seen from the AI hyperscalers. Amazon, Google, Meta, Oracle – almost $90 billion since September. That supply wave has been a quiet headwind for credit spreads and Treasury yields. Any pause in that pipeline would be welcomed by bond bulls.
What Could derail the Bounce?
- Another Bitcoin flush – crypto remains the market’s favorite risk-off barometer
- Weak Treasury auctions this week (especially if offshore buyers stay on holiday)
- Any sign that Ukraine talks are stalling again
- Retail sales data tomorrow that shows the consumer finally cracked
- The usual last-hour algo shenanigans that seem to love Mondays
Plenty of landmines still out there. But for now, the path of least resistance looks higher into Thanksgiving.
Bottom Line
We’ve seen this movie before: brutal week, oversold conditions, a couple of positive headlines, and suddenly everyone’s piling back in. The difference this time is that the catalysts – real AI adoption numbers and genuine geopolitical de-escalation – feel more substantive than the usual “Fed whisperer said something vague” nonsense.
That said, I’m not pounding the table for heroics here. The S&P is still down 3.5% month-to-date. Seasonality is great, but valuations aren’t exactly screaming bargain after the run we’ve had. A relief rally into year-end makes sense. A new leg higher probably needs fresh fundamental fuel.
For now, though? I’ll take the green screens and enjoy the ride. After last week, we’ve earned it.
Markets move fast. Stay nimble, manage risk, and remember – the trend is your friend until it isn’t.
