Remember that gut-wrenching drop last week when Bitcoin slid below $85,000 and the entire crypto market looked like it was about to roll over and die? Yeah, me too. I was staring at red charts, refreshing Twitter every thirty seconds, wondering if the bull run we’d been riding for months had finally run out of steam.
Fast forward to Monday morning, November 25, and the vibe is completely different. Bitcoin is back above $88,000, Ethereum is pushing $2,900 again, XRP is acting like it’s 2021 all over again, and even the meme coins are waking up. What the hell happened overnight?
A Classic Risk-On Day Powered by the Fed
Let’s be honest – the trigger wasn’t some mysterious whale accumulation or a surprise ETF announcement. It was the same old macro driver that’s been moving markets for the past two years: the Federal Reserve.
Over the weekend and into Monday, several Fed officials – including the usually hawkish Christopher Waller – suddenly sounded a lot more dovish. Talk of “monitoring incoming data” and “proceeding carefully” flipped into outright hints that another rate cut in December is very much on the table.
The market didn’t need to be told twice. CME FedWatch now shows roughly 85% probability of a December cut, up from barely 40% just days ago. When liquidity expectations shift that fast, risk assets light up – and crypto is still the most sensitive beta play out there.
Today’s Price Action at a Glance
Here’s what the board looked like mid-morning UTC on November 25:
| Asset | Price | 24h Change |
| Bitcoin (BTC) | $88,107 | +1.2% |
| Ethereum (ETH) | $2,922 | +2.9% |
| XRP | $2.25 | +8.7% |
| Solana (SOL) | $138.40 | +5.0% |
| BNB | $863 | +1.7% |
| Shiba Inu (SHIB) | $0.0000083 | +3.0% |
| Pepe (PEPE) | $0.0000045 | +5.3% |
| Bonk (BONK) | $0.00001 | +10.5% |
Total market cap climbed back above $3.1 trillion – a solid 2.4% jump in 24 hours. More importantly, the move felt broad-based instead of just a Bitcoin-only squeeze.
XRP Steals the Show (Again)
If you blinked, you missed XRP ripping almost 9% in a single day. The usual suspects – ongoing ETF speculation, Grayscale’s trust conversion chatter, and just plain old FOMO – are all in play. But let’s be real: when macro turns risk-on, XRP has always been one of the highest-beta large caps.
Personally, I’m still skeptical we see a spot XRP ETF before Q2 2026, but the market clearly disagrees right now. Volume tells the story – XRP flipped Ethereum for 24-hour trading volume on several major exchanges yesterday.
Liquidations Tell a Bigger Story
Over $344 million in positions got wrecked in the last 24 hours – mostly shorts getting absolutely torched. That’s a 57% jump in liquidations day-over-day.
Open interest also climbed 1.3% to $129 billion. Translation? New money is coming in, not just shorts covering. That’s the kind of price/volume/OI combination that usually marks at least a short-term low.
“We’re seeing classic short-squeeze mechanics combined with genuine spot buying from the Fed pivot narrative. This isn’t just leverage flushing – it’s rotation.”
– Senior analyst at a major Asian crypto desk
Technical Reset or Sustainable Move?
Here’s where it gets interesting. Last week’s sell-off pushed RSI across major timeframes into oversold territory for the first time since the summer dip. Algorithmic buyers and dip-buying retail piled in exactly where they were supposed to.
Bitcoin held the $85,000–$86,000 zone that lined up with the 50-day moving average and previous breakout level. Ethereum defended $2,750–$2,800. Solana bounced cleanly off $131. These weren’t random levels – they were textbook support.
Add in the fact that funding rates had gone deeply negative and perpetual futures basis was screaming “oversold,” and you had the ingredients for a sharp snapback rally.
What Could Push Bitcoin to $100K Before Year-End?
- A confirmed December rate cut (now almost priced in)
- End of Fed QT on December 1 – balance sheet runoff stops, liquidity tap turns back on
- Seasonal year-end window dressing from institutions
- Continued ETF inflows (spot Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed billions in the last month alone)
- Potential Santa Claus rally in equities spilling over
Several macro-focused analysts I respect – including Raoul Pal at Real Vision – are sticking to six-figure Bitcoin calls for early 2026, with many now pulling estimates forward into Q4 2025 if liquidity keeps improving this fast.
The Bear Case Nobody Wants to Talk About
Look, I’m bullish right now – the price action feels good, the macro backdrop just flipped, and the charts are cooperating. But we’ve been burned before.
If the December 17–18 FOMC meeting surprises with a hawkish pause, or if CPI data next month comes in hot, we could see a nasty reversal. Bitcoin has major resistance between $91,000–$92,000 that rejected price twice already this quarter.
Fail there, and the $80,000–$82,000 zone comes back into play fast. Altcoins would likely bleed another 15–25% in that scenario.
Final Thoughts – Cautiously Optimistic
The crypto market just showed us again why trying to fight the Fed is usually a losing battle. When central banks pivot toward easier policy, risk assets – especially the highest-beta ones like Bitcoin and altcoins – tend to front-run the liquidity.
We’re not out of the woods yet. Volatility is still sky-high, leverage is rebuilding quickly, and one bad macro print could change the narrative overnight. But for the first time in weeks, the path of least resistance feels up instead of down.
If Bitcoin can clear $91,000 with conviction and the total market cap holds $3 trillion, the psychological runway to $100,000+ opens up before year-end. And if that happens? Well, let’s just say the stories we’ll be telling in January are going to be a lot more fun than the ones from last week.
Either way, buckle up. The next few weeks are going to be wild.
