Remember when XRP couldn’t stay above two bucks for more than a couple of hours without someone hitting the sell button hard enough to send it tumbling again? Yeah, that’s been most of 2025 so far. But something feels a little different this Monday morning.
Over the last 24 hours the token has ripped almost 8% higher, pushing the price back to $2.24 at the time of writing. More importantly, it’s holding there while the rest of the market takes a breather. That’s the kind of price action that gets people talking.
What Actually Changed Overnight?
The short answer: everything and nothing at the same time.
We’ve watched XRP flirt with the $2 level half a dozen times this year, only to get rejected like clockwork. Each rejection came with hundreds of millions (sometimes over a billion) in realized losses as long-term holders finally threw in the towel. The psychological scarring around that round number is real.
This time, though, the backdrop is wildly different. The United States just got its first batch of spot XRP ETFs. Seven of them launched in less than two weeks — an approval pace we honestly haven’t seen for any altcoin outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Grayscale’s GXRP trust alone pulled in serious institutional money on day one, and the inflows haven’t stopped.
When actual regulated products start trading, the narrative shifts from “maybe one day” to “it’s happening right now.” Retail sees the headlines, FOMO kicks in, and suddenly the order books look a lot greener.
That’s exactly what we’re seeing.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s run through the tape real quick:
- 24h price change: +8.2%
- 24h spot volume: $6.24 billion (up 55% day-over-day)
- 24h futures volume: $10.21 billion (up 48%)
- Open interest: $4.13 billion (up 14.5% while price rose — fresh money, not short covering)
- Weekly performance flipped from -12% to +4% in under 48 hours
Rising open interest on an up-move is probably my favorite bullish signal in crypto. It means new players are actually willing to put skin in the game instead of just riding momentum.
That $2 Level Everyone Keeps Talking About
Here’s the part that keeps me up at night.
On-chain analysts have been hammering the same point for months: every single time XRP retests $2 in 2025, holders have panicked and realized between $500 million and $1.2 billion in weekly losses. It’s become the most expensive round number in altcoin history.
“The $2.0 level remains a major psychological zone for Ripple holders. Since early 2025, each retest has triggered massive spending behavior.”
— Leading on-chain analytics firm, Nov 24 2025
So the million-dollar question (or rather the multi-billion-dollar question) is whether this time really is different. Are the ETFs strong enough to absorb the inevitable supply that shows up every time we poke above two dollars?
Early signs say maybe. The bounce off the recent low near $2.04 was sharp and decisive. Volume spiked exactly when it needed to, and we printed two solid green daily candles that actually closed near their highs — something we haven’t seen in weeks.
Reading the Chart Like a Book
I pulled up the daily timeframe this morning and had to do a double take.
XRP has been trading below the Bollinger Band midline for what feels like forever. Yesterday it finally snapped back inside the bands, and today the bands themselves are starting to squeeze. If you’ve traded long enough, you know that tightening Bollinger Bands on decent volume usually precedes a big move in either direction.
The RSI has curled up from deep oversold territory without getting extended — classic mean-reversion behavior. MACD is trying to flip bullish for the first time since early October. Even the volume profile shows heavy interest right around current levels.
Here’s what stands out most to me:
- The 50-day moving average is finally bending downward and could act as dynamic support if we pull back
- We’re still below the 100-day and 200-day MAs, so the longer-term trend remains bearish until proven otherwise
- Next real resistance sits between $2.40–$2.50 where multiple moving averages converge
- Below $2.00 opens the trap door back to $1.80 (and honestly lower if sentiment flips)
In plain English: the short-term setup looks decent, but we’re nowhere near confirming a trend change yet.
The ETF Effect Nobody Saw Coming This Fast
I’ve been around crypto long enough to remember when people said spot XRP ETFs would “never happen in the US” because of the lingering regulatory cloud. Funny how quickly things change when court rulings go your way.
The speed of these approvals caught even the most optimistic Ripple supporters off guard. We went from zero to seven products in basically ten trading days. Compare that to Solana, which still doesn’t have a single spot ETF approved despite similar market cap and trading volume.
These aren’t tiny launches are doing real volume too. We’re talking hundreds of millions in assets under management already, with creation/redemption baskets getting filled daily. That’s the kind of steady, boring buying that actually moves prices over time — not just leveraged perpetual traders gambling with 50x.
What Happens From Here?
Two scenarios feel most likely to me.
Bull case (the one I’m leaning toward): We consolidate between $2.00 and $2.40 for the next week or two while the ETFs continue to vacuum up coins. Eventually we break higher toward the July highs around $3.30–$3.65 once the 100-day MA flips to support.
Bear case: Profit-takers who’ve been underwater since 2024 finally see $2.20+ and decide it’s time to exit. Selling pressure overwhelms ETF buying, we lose $2.00, and suddenly everyone who bought the breakout is trapped. Next stop $1.80, then potentially the low $1.60s.
Honestly? I think the bull case has the edge right now. The combination of fresh institutional inflows and improving technicals is hard to ignore. But I’ve been burned before getting too excited about XRP bounces, so I’m keeping my position size reasonable.
Final Thoughts
XRP is showing legitimate signs of life for the first time in months. The ETF catalyst is real, the volume is real, and the chart is finally cooperating.
But $2 has been the graveyard for bulls all year. Until we clear $2.50 with conviction and flip the 100-day moving average, I’m treating this as a high-probability bounce rather than the start of a new bull market.
Either way, the next few days should tell us everything we need to know. If you’re sitting on the sidelines, watching how price reacts around current levels is probably smarter than trying to chase. And if you’re already long… well, congratulations on surviving the gauntlet. Just don’t get greedy too early.
The crypto market has a way of humbling everyone eventually. Even when the stars finally seem to align.
