I still remember the exact moment in March when Ethereum blasted past $4,800 and everyone was calling for $10k by summer. Fast forward eight months and we’re sitting under $3,000, staring at a chart that looks suspiciously like the calm before a very ugly storm.
Sometimes the market hands you a pattern so textbook it almost feels insulting. Right now Ethereum is painting one of those patterns – a multi-month rounded top that has already taken us down 41% from the yearly high. And the scarier part? We might only be halfway done.
The Anatomy of a Monster Rounded Top
For the newer traders reading this: a rounded top (sometimes called a saucer top or inverted bowl) is one of the most reliable reversal patterns out there. It doesn’t scream like a head-and-shoulders or explode like a descending triangle. Instead it exhausts slowly, almost politely, giving bulls plenty of time to convince themselves “this is just consolidation.”
Ethereum started drawing this particular bowl back in late March. The left side was pure euphoria – post-Dencun upgrade, ETF approval rumors, staking yields looking juicy. Price curved gracefully up to roughly $4,890 (depending on which exchange you watch). Then came the long, agonizing distribution phase that lasted most of the summer and fall.
By the time November rolled around, the right side of the bowl was almost a perfect mirror of the left. And now price is testing the neckline around $2,750–$2,800 – the same zone that acted as resistance through much of 2023 and early 2024.
“Rounded tops are dangerous exactly because they don’t look dangerous until it’s too late.”
– Classic technical analysis wisdom
Historical Precedent Isn’t Pretty
Let’s not sugar-coat it. When major assets form clean rounded tops, the follow-through is usually brutal:
- Bitcoin 2013–2015: rounded top → 85% crash
- Bitcoin 2017–2018: rounded top → 84% crash
- Solana Sept–Nov 2024: almost identical pattern → 50% drop in six weeks
- Gold 2011–2013: textbook rounded top → five-year bear market
Notice a theme? These aren’t minor pullbacks. They’re generational wealth destruction events disguised as “healthy corrections.”
The Fundamental Backdrop Is Ugly Too
Technical patterns don’t form in a vacuum. Here’s what’s feeding this particular bear:
- Spot ETF outflows – Over $2.1 billion net outflows since mid-October. Institutions that piled in during the summer hype are quietly heading for the exits.
- Staking yield compression – With real-world rates still elevated, locking ETH for 3–4% doesn’t look attractive when you can get 5% risk-free.
- Layer-2 cannibalization – Most actual economic activity has migrated to Arbitrum, Base, and Blast. Ethereum mainnet fees are back near 2020 levels.
- Macro headwinds – Fed Chair Powell basically said “no Christmas rate-cut party” last week. Risk assets hate that.
- Bitcoin dominance rising – Money rotating back into BTC ahead of potential Trump-era policy tailwinds.
In my experience, when the technicals and fundamentals align this cleanly in the bearish direction, you usually get follow-through.
Where Could Price Go If the Neckline Breaks?
Measured move targets on rounded tops are calculated by taking the depth of the bowl and projecting it down from the neckline.
Rough math:
- High of pattern ≈ $4,890
- Neckline ≈ $2,750
- Depth = $4,890 – $2,750 = $2,140
- Target = $2,750 – $2,140 = $610
Yes, you read that right. A full pattern completion points toward the $600 zone – back to 2022 bear market lows. Obviously that’s the absolute worst-case scenario, and markets rarely deliver the textbook move perfectly, but even 50–70% of the measured move would put us in the $1,200–$1,500 range.
More realistic near-term support sits at:
- $2,230 (2023–2024 consolidation zone)
- $1,920 (200-week moving average)
- $1,520 (previous cycle high)
The Bull Case (Because There’s Always One)
Look, I’ve been wrong calling tops before – plenty of times. So let’s be fair and examine what could invalidate this whole setup.
- A decisive weekly close back above $3,200 would break the right side of the bowl and likely trigger a violent short squeeze.
- Spot ETF flows turning positive again (BlackRock flipping the switch would do it).
- Trump administration actually delivering crypto-friendly policy faster than expected.
- Layer-2 scaling narrative reigniting with something like Pectra upgrade surprise.
But honestly? Right now those feel like hopes rather than high-probability outcomes.
What I’m Doing Personally
Full disclosure – I’ve been reducing ETH exposure since we lost the $3,400 zone in October. Still holding a core position because I believe in the long-term story, but the majority of my stack is now in stablecoins waiting for either:
- A clear breakdown below $2,750 with volume → add shorts or buy puts
- Or a violent reclaim of $3,200 → rotate back in aggressively
Right now we’re in no-man’s land. The smart money play is patience.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum’s chart is sending one of the clearest bearish messages it has in years. A multi-month rounded top, deteriorating fundamentals, and hostile macro backdrop rarely end well.
That doesn’t mean tomorrow we wake up to $1,000 ETH. Markets love to fake out both sides before the real move. But the risk/reward right now heavily favors caution.
If you’re still fully loaded on ETH, ask yourself an honest question: are you prepared for another 30–50% drawdown? Because the chart is saying that’s very much on the table.
Stay safe out there. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t take.
(Article written November 25, 2025 – all price references are to that date unless specified otherwise.)
