Have you ever watched a market that felt like it was stuck in quicksand one week, only to suddenly sprint higher the next? That’s exactly what happened today. After weeks of wobbling and worrying headlines, the Dow roared ahead more than 660 points—like someone finally flipped the “risk-on” switch again.
I’ve been doing this long enough to know these violent mood swings aren’t random. There’s always a trigger, or three, lurking underneath. Today wasn’t just about dip buyers getting revenge; it was about a cocktail of tech momentum, Fed hopes, and political speculation that finally tipped the scales.
A Classic Relief Rally in Disguise
Let’s be honest—November has been rough. The S&P 500 is still down about 1.1 % month-to-date, the Nasdaq is off nearly 3 %, and even the usually steady Dow is nursing a small loss. Valuations got stretched, momentum faltered, and suddenly every minor headline felt like a sledgehammer.
But here’s the thing: the pullback never reached official “correction” territory. We only fell around 4 % from the late-October peak. In the grand scheme of bull markets, that’s barely a hiccup. And hiccups create opportunities for the brave—or the greedy, depending on your perspective.
Today proved the bulls haven’t gone anywhere. They were just waiting for an excuse.
Tech Stages an Impressive Comeback
Big tech carried the day, plain and simple. Alphabet touched fresh all-time highs after word leaked that Meta is seriously considering Google’s TPU chips for its 2027 AI infrastructure. That rumor alone sent shares flying and reminded everyone why the AI trade still has legs.
Not every mega-cap escaped unscathed, though. Nvidia, the undisputed king of the AI chip space, actually dropped more than 2.5 %. Profit-taking? Positioning ahead of next week’s earnings? Maybe both. But one down day in a stock that’s up triple-digits year-to-date hardly signals the end of the world.
“Stocks are trying to stage a comeback from the past few weeks of declines, suggesting that dip buyers are still out in full force.”
Clark Bellin, President of Bellwether Wealth
I couldn’t agree more. The fact that we bounced this hard on essentially no new macro data tells you liquidity is still plentiful and fear is low.
Fed Rate Cut Odds Keep Climbing
Traders are now pricing in roughly an 85 % probability of a quarter-point cut at the December meeting. That’s up meaningfully in just the past few days. Lower rates remain the market’s favorite lubricant, and any hint of dovishness tends to light a fire under risk assets.
Perhaps more intriguing is the growing chatter around who will actually sit in the Fed chair when the music stops. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dropped a tantalizing comment suggesting an announcement could come before Christmas. Names are flying around trading desks like confetti.
Right now Kevin Hassett, current National Economic Council Director, appears to be emerging as a frontrunner according to multiple reports. Hassett has long advocated for easier financial conditions, which markets would almost certainly interpret as bullish.
- A Hassett-led Fed could mean slower pace of balance-sheet runoff
- Potentially more tolerant view on inflation overshoots
- Greater sensitivity to stock market signals (whether we admit it or not)
Of course, nothing is official yet. But the mere possibility is giving investors another reason to lean in rather than lean out.
What the Overnight Futures Are Really Telling Us
As I write this just past 6 p.m. Eastern, Dow futures are basically flat—up a whopping 2 points. S&P and Nasdaq futures are each down a hair. Translation: no one is in a hurry to sell this bounce, but no one is aggressively chasing into the close either.
That’s actually healthy. Parabolic overnight gaps higher often reverse by morning. A quiet, consolidated session sets up better for follow-through tomorrow.
The Bigger Picture Heading Into Year-End
Look, I’m not here to sugarcoat it—catalysts feel light between now and New Year’s. Holiday trading volumes will thin out, tax-loss harvesting could create sporadic selling pressure, and geopolitical headlines never take a vacation.
Yet history remains stubbornly bullish during December. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged a gain of about 1.3 % in the final month of the year—making it the single best performing month on the calendar. Combine that seasonal tailwind with still-accommodative Fed policy and reasonably strong economic growth, and the path of least resistance feels higher.
In my experience, the markets that grind sideways or dip modestly into Thanksgiving tend to reward patience by Christmas. We may not get a straight line, but the odds favor buyers over sellers from here.
Three Trades I’m Watching Right Now
- Small caps – The Russell 2000 has quietly outperformed the past two weeks. Lower rates hit domestic-focused companies hardest in a good way.
- Regional banks (KRE) – Steepening yield curve + softer regulation outlook = rocket fuel.
- China internet names – Stimulus headlines keep coming; valuations remain absurdly cheap.
Nothing goes straight up forever, and I’ll be the first to raise an eyebrow if we rip 10 % in two weeks with no consolidation. But for now, the weight of the evidence says stay invested and let the trend work.
Tonight the market is catching its breath after a 660-point exhale. Tomorrow it decides whether to inhale again—or roll over and play dead. My money is on the former.
Either way, one session doesn’t make a trend. But today reminded us that bull markets rarely die politely. They throw tantrums, scare the weak hands, and then march higher when least expected. If you blinked, you missed the message: the bulls are still in charge. See you at the open.
