Have you ever watched diplomacy move at the speed of a glacier while the world holds its breath? That’s exactly where we are right now with Ukraine and Russia.
Over the past 48 hours something shifted. Whispers turned into headlines: a revised peace framework, quietly backed by Washington, suddenly looked like it might actually have legs. Kyiv signaled it could live with the broad strokes. Certain American voices started talking about “only a few remaining points” to iron out. And then, almost on cue, Moscow pumped the brakes—hard.
Classic.
A Plan Takes Shape—Sort Of
Let’s be honest: when the original 28-point draft surfaced a couple of weeks ago, eyebrows went through the roof. The document essentially asked Ukraine to hand over territory it still claims, slash its army by half, and accept a list of conditions that felt more like capitulation than compromise. Kyiv’s reaction was predictable and, frankly, understandable: no way.
Fast-forward to this week. After marathon sessions in Geneva and Abu Dhabi, that same proposal has apparently shrunk to around 19 points. The most radioactive clauses have reportedly been softened or removed entirely. Ukrainian officials emerged from the latest round sounding cautiously optimistic—words like “common understanding on core terms” started appearing in statements.
From the outside it looked like momentum. Real momentum. The kind that hasn’t existed in this conflict for years.
Moscow’s Response: “Slow Down”
And then the Kremlin spoke.
On Wednesday morning, presidential aide Yuri Ushakov delivered the Russian position with the diplomatic equivalent of a shrug. Yes, a meeting with the American envoy is scheduled for next week. Yes, they’ll talk about “content.” But no, Russia hasn’t officially received any revised document, and no, nobody should get excited.
“We, the Russian side, have not yet discussed any documents with anyone specifically.”
– Yuri Ushakov, presidential aide
Press secretary Dmitry Peskov went even further, warning journalists not to jump the gun on declarations of imminent peace. The message was crystal clear: Moscow will move at its own pace, thank you very much.
In my experience covering these kinds of moments, that tone usually means one of two things: either Russia genuinely needs time to study whatever landed on their desk, or they’re preparing the ground to extract more concessions. History suggests it’s usually the latter.
What Changed Between 28 Points and 19?
We don’t have the final text—nobody outside the negotiating rooms does—but leaks and carefully worded statements paint a picture of serious surgery on the original draft.
- Territorial concessions appear to have moved from “immediate handover” to some form of delayed or phased arrangement.
- The demand to cut Ukraine’s armed forces by 50% has reportedly been replaced with vaguer language about “right-sizing” and international monitoring.
- Neutrality clauses remain, but with added reassurances about future security guarantees—probably the single biggest Ukrainian red line that had to be addressed.
- Economic reconstruction funding mechanisms seem to have been bolstered, with clearer paths for frozen Russian assets to be redirected.
Are these changes enough to satisfy the Kremlin? That’s the multi-billion-dollar question.
The Abu Dhabi Channel Nobody Saw Coming
One of the more fascinating subplots here is the location. Abu Dhabi has quietly become the back-channel capital of the world for this conflict. Neutral territory, lavish discretion, and the UAE’s growing role as a mediator between East and West have turned it into the perfect off-ramp for delicate conversations.
Both Ukrainian and Russian delegations were reportedly in the Emirati capital this week—sometimes in the same hotel, though almost certainly not in the same room at the same time. The fact that these encounters can even happen without immediate leaks speaks volumes about how seriously all sides are taking the current window.
Markets Are Watching Every Word
Global investors hate uncertainty, and this war has been one of the biggest sources of it for nearly four years now. Energy prices, grain markets, defense stocks, European natural gas—everything moves on rumors out of Kyiv, Moscow, or Washington.
Right now the sentiment feels schizophrenic. On one hand, any whiff of de-escalation sends risk assets higher. On the other, seasoned traders know that “close” in diplomacy can mean six months or six years. I’ve seen too many “breakthroughs” evaporate overnight to get excited yet.
Still, the fact that oil dipped below $70 and European equities perked up on the initial reports tells you the market is pricing in at least the possibility of a thaw.
The Putin Calculus Nobody Can Fully Read
At the center of everything, as always, sits one man and his inner circle.
Vladimir Putin has spent years framing this conflict as an existential struggle against the West. Walking away without something that can be sold domestically as victory would carry real political risk. At the same time, the Russian economy is under strain, the battlefield is increasingly costly, and a new American administration clearly wants this file off its desk.
That’s the narrow path the current proposal has to thread: give Moscow enough to declare “mission accomplished” while giving Ukraine enough to preserve sovereignty and dignity. Anyone who tells you they know exactly where Putin’s red lines are today is guessing.
What Happens Next Week in Moscow
The meeting between the U.S. presidential envoy and Russian leadership is now the single most important diplomatic event on the calendar. If the Russians come prepared with detailed counter-proposals, we’ll know they’re serious. If they spend the session lecturing about history and NATO expansion, we’ll know the window is closing again.
Either way, expect leaks within hours. In 2025, nothing stays secret for long.
Why This Moment Feels Different (But Still Fragile)
I’ve been following this war since the first columns crossed the border in February 2022. We’ve had prisoner swaps, grain deals, back-channel talks in Turkey and Saudi Arabia—moments that looked promising and then crumbled.
This time feels different for three reasons:
- A new U.S. administration with a clear mandate to end the conflict quickly.
- Battlefield exhaustion on both sides that is finally translating into political flexibility.
- Third-party mediators (UAE, potentially others) who have real skin in the game and impressive discretion.
But fragile? Absolutely. One drone strike on the wrong target, one inflammatory statement from either capital, and the whole house of cards collapses.
Bottom Line
We are closer to a framework for ending this war than at any point since the spring of 2022. That’s not hyperbole; it’s simply where the pieces are on the board right now.
But “closer” is not “there.” Russia’s cautious, almost dismissive tone this week is a reminder that Moscow still holds enormous leverage and isn’t afraid to use it. The next ten days—culminating with that meeting in the Kremlin—will tell us whether 2026 dawns with a ceasefire in place or with the same grinding stalemate we’ve lived with for years.
Either way, the world will be watching. And for once, there’s reason—guarded, skeptical, but real—to hope the watching might actually lead somewhere.
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