Remember that sickening drop when Bitcoin sliced straight through $90K like it was nothing? Yeah, me too. I watched the same charts everyone else did while the market puked out billions in ETF money and panic sellers hit the bid harder than I’ve seen in years. But something strange has started happening over the past few days that actually made me sit up and lean into the screen instead of walking away.
We’re potentially looking at one of the cleanest three drives patterns I’ve seen on Bitcoin’s higher timeframes in a very long time. And if you’re not familiar with that name yet, stick with me – because this particular setup has an annoying habit of marking major turning points when almost everyone has already given up.
The Setup That Usually Only Shows Up At Real Bottoms
Let’s be brutally honest for a second – the last six weeks have been ugly. Lower highs, lower lows, ETF outflows that made November look like a slow-motion car crash. The kind of price action that makes even the most stubborn bulls start questioning their life choices.
But here’s where it gets interesting. When you zoom out and actually measure what’s been happening instead of just reacting to the red candles, the structure starts looking suspiciously… organized.
What Exactly Is a Three Drives Pattern?
Think of it as the market’s way of exhausting itself in the most symmetrical way possible. You get three distinct pushes lower, each roughly equal in length and time, separated by two corrective bounces that fail to take out the previous high. It’s basically the chart equivalent of watching someone try to slam a door three separate times before finally giving up and walking away.
The psychology behind it makes perfect sense when you think about it. First drive: profit taking. Second drive: weak hands finally capitulate. Third drive: the final shakeout where even some of the strong hands start doubting. And then… nothing left to sell.
- First drive takes out the initial support and scares everyone
- Second drive confirms the breakdown and brings in fresh shorts
- Third drive hits the “why is this still going down” exhaustion point
I’ve watched this play out across different markets for years now, and Bitcoin in particular seems to love respecting these harmonic setups during major turning points. The 2022 bear market bottom? Three drives into $17K. The COVID crash? Same pattern into the $3,800 low. History doesn’t repeat, but damn if it doesn’t rhyme sometimes.
Where We Stand Right Now
As I write this, Bitcoin is grinding around that $75,000-$78,000 zone that everyone and their mother has been talking about for weeks. And the scary part? It’s looking exactly like where you’d expect that third drive to complete.
The first drive took us down through $90K. The second drive pushed through $83K with those nasty ETF outflow headlines providing the perfect fuel. And now we’re making what appears to be the final equality leg lower, with price respecting the 1.618 extension of the first move almost to the dollar.
When you see this kind of symmetry in a market that’s been trending hard in one direction, you have to at least respect the possibility that something structural is trying to form.
The weekly timeframe is particularly clean right now. That $78,000 level has been major support going back months, and the $75,000 area lines up with previous swing lows that held during the summer consolidation. Put simply, this is about as good as it gets for a potential reversal zone from a pure price action perspective.
Why This One Might Actually Matter
Most patterns fail. Let’s not sugarcoat that – probably 70% of what looks perfect on a chart ends up getting run over by the next wave of selling or buying. But these particular three drives setups have a weird tendency to work when certain conditions line up, and we’re checking an uncomfortable number of those boxes right now.
First, the volume profile. The point of control from the entire yearly range got completely wiped out during this move lower, which is exactly what you want to see before a major reversal pattern completes. Markets rarely reverse from thin air – they need to take out the trapped positions first.
Second, the time factor. These three drives have played out over roughly equal periods, which adds to the symmetry. When both price and time line up like this, the probability of at least a significant bounce increases dramatically.
Third, and this is the part that actually gives me some confidence – we’re seeing divergence across pretty much every momentum indicator you can name. RSI making higher lows while price makes lower lows. Volume drying up on the third push lower. The kind of subtle clues that smart money starts accumulating while retail is still screaming about the end of the bull market.
The Levels That Actually Matter
Forget about the exact $75,000 number for a second. What really matters is the zone between roughly $74,500 and $78,500. This is where multiple confluence factors come together:
- Previous weekly support cluster
- 0.618 retracement of the entire move up from the 2024 lows
- Volume profile support from the summer range
- The measured move target for the third drive completion
- Psychological round number territory
If Bitcoin can put in a strong weekly close above $78,000 after touching this zone, especially with expanding volume on the recovery, I’ll be the first to admit that the bears might have just exhausted themselves at the perfect spot.
On the flip side, a decisive break and close below $74,000 would completely invalidate this setup and likely open the door to significantly lower prices. There’s no sugarcoating that – the pattern either works here or it doesn’t.
What Usually Happens After These Patterns Complete
Looking back at previous examples is actually pretty wild. The 2022 bottom saw Bitcoin rally over 150% in the months following the three drives completion. The COVID crash recovery? Nearly 20x from the exact low. Even smaller versions of this pattern during bull market corrections have led to sharp 30-50% bounces.
The common thread in all these cases? The reversal didn’t happen immediately. There was always a period of grinding, fakeouts, and general frustration before the real move started. Which, if we’re being honest, feels exactly like what we’re experiencing right now.
Look, nobody has a crystal ball in this market. I’ve been wrong plenty of times before, and I’ll be wrong plenty of times again. But when you start seeing this kind of structural exhaustion combined with harmonic symmetry at major support levels, you have to at least pay attention.
The next few weeks are going to be fascinating either way. Will we get the clean sweep lower that completes the pattern and sets up the mother of all bounces? Or are we looking at something more sinister that takes out the yearly lows?
Either way, this $75K-$78K zone feels like one of those moments that people will be talking about years from now – either as the spot where the bears finally won, or where they got absolutely destroyed trying.
I’ve got my alerts set and my dry powder ready. Whatever happens next, this is the kind of setup that makes trading Bitcoin during bear markets actually worth the emotional trauma.
