Have you ever watched a neighbor slowly buy up all the land around your house, bit by bit, until one day you realize you can’t even leave your driveway without their permission?
That’s pretty much how a growing number of Polish nationalists feel about Germany today. Not tanks rolling across the border (nobody seriously expects that), but something far more subtle and, in many ways, far more dangerous: economic leverage, political influence, and a vision of Europe where Warsaw always ends up at Berlin when decisions are made.
The Quiet Return of German Dominance in Central Europe
Let’s be honest for a second. Germany has been the undisputed economic heavyweight of Europe for decades. That’s not conspiracy theory; it’s just math. Their companies own huge chunks of Polish industry, their banks hold significant Polish debt, and their politicians often set the tone for EU policy.
But in recent years, something has shifted. What used to feel like normal big-brother economics now feels to many Poles like deliberate encroachment. And the loudest voice raising this alarm? None other than the man who effectively ran Poland for nearly a decade: Jarosław Kaczyński.
He didn’t mince words. Just before Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, he warned that Germany was pushing for a federalized EU that would amount to nothing less than a “Fourth Reich.” Harsh? Absolutely. Politically explosive? Without question. But completely baseless? That’s where things get interesting.
When “Ever Closer Union” Starts Looking Like Empire
The European Union was sold to Eastern Europe as a partnership of equals. Join the club, adopt the rules, and everyone prospers together. Sounds nice on paper.
Yet thirty years after the Maastricht Treaty, the reality looks different. Germany and France consistently drive the big decisions (Eurozone policy, migration quotas, climate regulations, rule-of-law conditionality). When smaller countries push back, they suddenly find EU funds frozen or infringement procedures launched.
Poland has been on the receiving end more than most. Between 2015 and 2023, Warsaw repeatedly clashed with Brussels over judicial reforms, media laws, and LGBTQ policies. Each time, Berlin was either openly leading the charge or quietly cheering from the front row.
“Germany and France want to build a European superstate in which Poland would lose its sovereignty.”
– Senior Polish political figure, 2023
That quote didn’t come from some fringe blogger. It came straight from one of the most powerful men in Polish politics. And he’s far from alone in that assessment.
Economic Dependence: The Chains You Don’t See
Here’s a thought experiment. What happens to Poland if Germany decides tomorrow to pull its companies out?
Unemployment spikes. Factories close in Silesia and Greater Poland. Supply chains collapse. The zloty crashes. It would be an economic heart attack.
German firms employ hundreds of thousands of Poles directly and millions more indirectly. They dominate sectors from automotive parts to retail to banking. In many Polish cities, the biggest taxpayer is a German-owned company.
- Over 6,000 German companies operate in Poland
- German direct investment stock exceeds €40 billion
- Poland runs a massive trade deficit with Germany every single year
- German banks are among the largest players in the Polish financial sector
This isn’t just business. It’s leverage. When your economy would collapse without your neighbor’s goodwill, how free are you really?
The Three Seas Initiative: Poland’s Counterplay
Warsaw isn’t sitting idle. For years, Poland has pushed the Three Seas Initiative (3SI) — a grouping of twelve EU countries between the Baltic, Black, and Adriatic seas — as an alternative power center in Europe.
The official story? Infrastructure, energy security, digital connectivity. The unofficial story? Creating a Polish-led bloc strong enough to tell Berlin “no” when it matters.
And here’s the twist: the United States loves it. Washington has poured diplomatic and financial support into 3SI precisely because it weakens German dominance in the region and creates a reliable pro-American corridor from the Baltic to the Black Sea.
In other words, Poland’s best hope of escaping German hegemony might be… deeper American hegemony. It’s a devil’s bargain plenty of Polish strategists are willing to make.
The Tusk Problem
When Donald Tusk returned to power in late 2023, many Polish nationalists saw it as the final German victory.
Tusk spent years in Brussels as President of the European Council. He speaks fluent German. He’s openly pro-EU integration. To his critics, he’s the perfect Trojan horse for Berlin’s agenda in Warsaw.
Whether that’s fair or not (and I’m inclined to think it’s overstated), the perception matters. Millions of Poles genuinely believe their current prime minister prioritizes European unity over Polish sovereignty.
In politics, perception eventually becomes reality.
2027: The Election That Could Change Everything
All of this is building toward Poland’s next parliamentary elections in autumn 2027.
If the conservative-nationalist opposition regains power (probably through an alliance between PiS and the rising Confederation party), expect a dramatic shift. Renewed confrontation with Brussels. Full-throated development of 3SI as a political platform. Maybe even a Polish nuclear weapons down the line.
If the current pro-EU coalition holds, the federalization train keeps rolling. Poland becomes a wealthy, modern, thoroughly integrated European province — with all the comfort and constraints that implies.
There’s no third option. Full sovereignty isn’t on the menu in 21st-century Europe.
So Is Germany Really a Threat?
Here’s my take, for what it’s worth.
Germany doesn’t wake up every morning plotting to destroy Polish independence. That’s cartoon-villain thinking. But Berlin does want a Europe organized around its interests and vision. And that vision has less and less room for genuinely sovereign nation-states east of the Oder River.
The threat isn’t military. It isn’t even intentional in the classic sense. It’s structural. It’s the natural outcome of power imbalances that have existed since 1989 and are now reaching their logical conclusion.
Poland stands at a crossroads. Accept a comfortable junior partnership in a German-led Europe, or fight for something closer to real independence — most likely under an American security umbrella.
The Polish partisans who fought “For your freedom and ours” in the 19th century would recognize the choice instantly. Only the flags have changed.
The question is which path today’s Poland will choose — and whether it still has the will to pay the price of real sovereignty in a continent that increasingly sees the nation-state as obsolete.
One thing is certain: the next few years in Central Europe are going to be anything but boring.
