Remember when Ethereum couldn’t stay above three grand for more than a hot minute? Yeah, that was basically all of November so far. Yet here we are on the 27th, watching the price casually sit at $3,040 like it never left. Honestly, it feels a bit surreal after the beating ETH took over the past month.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that these sharp rebounds rarely happen in a vacuum. Something is shifting under the hood, and this time the clues are pretty loud if you know where to look.
What Actually Changed Overnight?
Let’s be real – retail traders screaming on Twitter didn’t push us back above $3,000. The real fuel came from two sources that have been quietly building momentum: spot ETF inflows and some serious whale accumulation.
Spot Ethereum ETFs just posted their fourth consecutive day of net positive flows. That might sound small in Bitcoin terms, but for ETH this is huge. We’re talking about real-world demand where issuers have to go out and actually buy the asset to back new shares. Every dollar flowing in removes coins from circulation. Do that for four days straight and suddenly the supply side starts to feel the squeeze.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Yesterday alone saw roughly $78 million flow into U.S. spot ETH products. That pushed the cumulative total past $12 billion. I know, still dwarfed by Bitcoin ETFs, but the trend is what matters. Four green days in a row after weeks of outflows or stagnation tells institutions that the worst of the panic might be over.
Perhaps even more interesting? The pace is accelerating. Each of the last four sessions showed stronger inflows than the one before. That’s not random noise – that’s conviction building.
Whales Are Treating This Dip Like a Sale
While most retail holders were hitting the panic-sell button, the big players did the opposite. One corporate treasury (widely followed in the community) scooped up nearly 70,000 ETH last week alone. At today’s prices that’s almost $200 million worth of Ethereum added to cold storage.
That single move pushed their total holdings above 3.6 million ETH – easily a top-five wallet globally. And they’re still sitting on an unrealized loss from higher average buy prices. The fact they’re willing to average down this aggressively speaks volumes about where they think price is headed longer term.
Beyond that one whale, on-chain analytics show the 10,000–100,000 ETH cohort now controls more Ethereum than ever before. We’re talking over 21 million coins locked up in those addresses. Meanwhile, exchange reserves on major platforms keep dropping. Coins are moving off trading venues and into long-term custody or staking contracts. That’s textbook supply-shock setup.
Derivatives Data Is Flashing Early Bullish Signals
Most people focus purely on spot price, but the futures market often leads the way. Right now open interest across major exchanges is climbing while price moves higher. That combination almost always means new money entering the trade rather than short covering or liquidation cascades.
Funding rates have flipped mildly positive again, and the futures basis is widening. Translation: the market is paying you to stay long. When was the last time that happened during a 40% drawdown? Exactly.
Technical Picture – First Real Hope in Weeks
Let’s zoom out to the daily chart because something genuinely interesting is happening.
For most of November, Ethereum was glued to the lower Bollinger Band – classic sign of a market in distribution and despair. Yesterday the price finally closed above the middle band for the first time since early in the month. That’s often where reversals begin.
- RSI has crawled back above 40 and is curling higher
- MACD just printed its first bullish crossover since the breakdown
- Price reclaimed the 10-day moving average – usually an early trend-change signal
- Volume profile shows heavy accumulation between $2,850 and $2,950 – that zone held perfectly
None of this guarantees we moon tomorrow, but the character of the price action has changed. The selling feels exhausted.
What Could Take Us Higher From Here?
If bulls manage to defend $3,000 as new support – and all the evidence suggests they’re trying – the next logical targets sit up around $3,250 where the 50-day moving average and previous breakdown level converge.
Clear that and suddenly $3,600–$3,800 comes into play pretty quickly. That’s where a ton of leveraged longs got wrecked on the way down, so there’s likely to be thin liquidity above current levels. In plain English: moves can get violent once we break the range.
The combination of sustained ETF inflows and declining exchange balances is one of the most bullish fundamental setups Ethereum has seen since the Merge.
Risks That Still Lurk
Look, I’m optimistic, but I’m not blind. The macro environment remains uncertain, Bitcoin dominance is still elevated, and one bad risk-off day in traditional markets could drag everything lower again.
We’re also heading into the end of the month, which often brings tax-loss harvesting and portfolio rebalancing. A failure to hold $2,900 on any retest would invalidate a lot of the bullish setups we’re seeing right now.
That said, the balance of probabilities has shifted. For the first time in weeks, the path of least resistance feels higher rather than lower.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum reclaiming $3,000 isn’t just another green candle. It’s the market telling us that real demand is stepping in exactly when most participants thought the bottom was still ahead.
Between institutional inflows that show no sign of slowing, whales treating six-figure dips like Black Friday deals, and technical indicators finally turning the corner – the ingredients are there for something more substantial than a relief rally.
I’ve been around long enough to know crypto loves to fake people out, but right now the weight of the evidence leans bullish. Whether you’re already long or waiting for confirmation, the setup deserves respect.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that feel obvious in hindsight. This might be one of those moments.
