Have you ever noticed how the stock market sometimes feels like it has its own holiday calendar? This week, it looked a lot like Wall Street decided to start the Thanksgiving feast one day early.
Major indexes closed higher for the fourth straight session on Wednesday, tech names led the charge, and even traders who usually grumble about light pre-holiday volume were cracking smiles. It wasn’t a massive blowout day, but everything just… worked. The kind of quiet confidence that makes you wonder if the good times can keep rolling straight through year-end.
Yet beneath the surface, plenty of crosscurrents deserve attention. Interest rate expectations, artificial intelligence reshaping entire industries, shifting global leadership in smartphones, and a cryptocurrency that can’t seem to catch a break — all of these stories collided in the last 24 hours. Let’s unpack what actually happened and why it matters for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
A Classic Pre-Holiday Melt-Up
Thanksgiving week has a reputation on Wall Street, and it’s generally a good one. Low volume, reduced news flow, and a collective mood of “let’s not rock the boat before turkey” often translate into upside drift. This year delivered the script almost perfectly.
The S&P 500 tacked on another decent gain, the Dow climbed steadily, and the Nasdaq — powered by its usual suspects — kept the momentum alive. Perhaps the most telling move came from a name that’s been unusually quiet lately: Oracle.
Shares of the enterprise software giant jumped roughly 4% after analysts essentially said, “Come on, the sell-off went too far.” When a heavyweight like that catches a bid, it tends to lift the entire cloud and AI complex. Sure enough, Nvidia, Microsoft, and friends tagged along for the ride.
“Thanksgiving week is generally a strong week in the markets. Everyone’s feeling good.”
– Eric Diton, President, The Wealth Alliance
It’s hard to argue with that sentiment right now. Animal spirits are alive, dip-buyers remain aggressive, and bad news feels conspicuously absent.
The Fed’s December Decision Looms Large
Here’s the part where the sugar high could meet reality. Futures markets are currently pricing in about an 85% probability of a quarter-point rate cut when the Federal Reserve meets in December. That’s a lot of good news already baked in.
History shows that when expectations run this hot, even delivering the “right” outcome can trigger a disappointment trade. If the Fed cuts but signals extreme caution for 2026, or if upcoming data suddenly turns hawkish, the reaction could be sharper than many expect.
On the flip side, some strategists believe the incoming administration’s economic team could push for even easier policy longer term. Lower rates for longer remains the base case for many bulls, and that scenario continues to underpin some truly ambitious S&P 500 targets floating around trading desks — think 7,400 or even 8,000 by the end of next year.
Apple Set to Reclaim the Smartphone Crown
While everyone obsesses over AI chips, a quieter changing of the guard appears to be happening in consumer tech. New projections show Apple on track to ship around 243 million iPhones this year, eclipsing its main rival’s total for the first time in 14 years.
That’s not just bragging rights. It speaks to sustained demand for premium devices even in a supposedly mature market, and it reinforces Apple’s pricing power at a time when many companies struggle to push through inflation.
In my view, this milestone matters more than most realize. When the largest company in the world demonstrates that consumers will still pay up for quality and ecosystem lock-in, it validates the entire growth-stock narrative that has dominated the past decade.
China’s Industrial Engine Is Sputtering
Not everything is rosy globally. Fresh data revealed a 5.5% year-over-year drop in industrial profits across China last month — the steepest decline since early summer.
Ongoing trade friction clearly played a role, but domestic demand remains the bigger issue. When the world’s factory floor hits a soft patch, commodity prices, shipping rates, and emerging-market currencies all feel it eventually.
- Weaker exports pressure margins
- Property sector woes continue to drag
- Stimulus measures so far feel incremental rather than transformative
Interestingly, some global investors are starting to look past the headline gloom and focus on pockets of opportunity — particularly Chinese AI and robotics names trading at fractions of their U.S. counterparts. Valuation discrepancies this large rarely persist forever.
The AI Job Displacement Conversation Just Got Real
Perhaps the most sobering release of the week came from a prestigious university’s new study on artificial intelligence and the labor market. Their simulation of 151 million U.S. workers concluded that roughly 11.7% of the workforce could theoretically be replaced by current AI capabilities.
That’s not a rounding error. We’re talking about $1.2 trillion in annual wages across finance, healthcare, professional services, and beyond. The researchers were careful to note that economic, regulatory, and social barriers will slow the pace of disruption, but the direction feels unmistakable.
Look, I’ve followed the AI story for years, and the technology has consistently exceeded expectations on capability while falling short on actual enterprise adoption timelines. This time, though, the gap appears to be closing faster than many anticipated.
Bitcoin’s Rough November Probably Isn’t Over
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts aren’t having the same holiday cheer. The largest digital asset has shed more than 20% this month and at least one investment bank believes the downside pressure will persist through December.
Regulatory uncertainty, profit-taking after the post-election spike, and macro liquidity dynamics all seem to be aligning against risk assets that thrive on excess liquidity. When real yields creep higher, Bitcoin tends to feel it first and worst.
Longer term, the bull case remains intact for many believers — institutional adoption, nation-state balance sheets, etc. But timing matters, and right now the path of least resistance looks lower.
What Happens After the Leftovers Are Gone?
Thanksgiving itself will close U.S. markets on Thursday and deliver a shortened session on Friday. That brief pause gives everyone a moment to reflect on a year that has defied plenty of bearish predictions.
Breadth has improved, earnings growth came through, inflation moderated without triggering recession, and policy uncertainty — while still present — resolved in a market-friendly direction. It’s easy to understand why so many professionals are reluctant to fight the tape.
Still, successful investing often comes down to respecting risk even when it feels absent. The list of things that could derail the current euphoria isn’t short:
- A Fed that turns more cautious than priced
- Renewed tariff escalation impacting corporate guidance
- Geopolitical flare-ups few are currently focused on
- Simple mean reversion after an exceptionally strong run
None of these outcomes feel like base cases today, but they rarely do at market peaks — whenever those eventually arrive.
For now, the path of least resistance remains higher. Seasonality favors December more often than not, fund managers are chasing performance, and the macro backdrop refuses to deliver a clear knockout blow to risk assets.
Enjoy the rally. Stay grateful for the gains we’ve seen in 2025. But keep one eye on the exit signs — because markets have a way of serving humble pie right after the pumpkin pie disappears.
In many ways, this pre-Thanksgiving surge encapsulates everything fascinating about today’s investment landscape: powerful structural trends (AI adoption, premium consumer resilience), cyclical tailwinds (falling rates, seasonal strength), and enough uncertainty to keep even the most bullish participants honest.
Whether you’re raising a glass to another year of outperformance or quietly positioning for whatever comes next, one thing feels certain — we’re living through a transformative period for global markets. And moments like these are worth paying attention to.
