Ever wake up on a holiday morning, coffee in hand, and realize the entire financial world is basically on mute? That’s today – Thanksgiving in the US, markets closed, futures barely twitching. Yet somehow, the rest of the planet is still spinning, Bitcoin’s flirting with new highs, and traders are already pricing in Fed cuts like it’s Christmas come early. Funny how a day off can feel anything but quiet when you’re addicted to price action.
A Holiday Pause That Isn’t Really a Pause
Let’s be honest – when US cash markets shut for Thanksgiving, volume usually evaporates and nothing much happens. But this year feels different. The S&P 500 has clawed back nearly every point it lost in the early-November wobble, sitting just over 1% from all-time highs after four straight up days. Nasdaq futures are doing the same lazy hover. It’s like the market took a deep breath, shrugged, and decided the storm was over.
Part of me thinks this resilience is impressive. Another part wonders if we’re all just desperate to believe the worst is behind us. Either way, the price action doesn’t lie – buyers are stepping in aggressively.
The Fed Cut Rollercoaster Nobody Asked For
If you’ve followed rate-cut odds this month, congratulations – you’ve lived through more twists than a Netflix thriller. One minute December was basically off the table (30% probability), the next it’s practically guaranteed (87% as I write this). Mohamed El-Erian called it right: this is wild volatility dressed up as forward guidance.
“Play-by-play Fedspeak has been a primary driver of this massive volatility. So much for forward policy guidance fostering stability and predictability.”
– Mohamed A. El-Erian
He’s not wrong. We’ve watched probabilities collapse and rebound in days, not months. And yet risk assets keep climbing the wall of worry. In my experience, when markets shrug off that kind of noise, they’re telling you something important: the path of least resistance is still higher.
Europe’s Mixed Bag – UK Gilts Steal the Show (Again)
While America stuffs itself with turkey, Europe actually had things to trade. And boy did UK gilts deliver drama. After Wednesday’s budget relief rally, Thursday saw sellers return – 10-year yields back up to 4.46%. The FTSE 100 lagged its peers, dragged by miners, while the pound joined the Swiss franc at the bottom of the G10 leaderboard.
But let’s zoom out. The budget actually created more fiscal headroom than expected – £22bn against the main fiscal rule. That’s double March levels and well above consensus. For once, markets rewarded prudence instead of punishing it.
- Tax rises back-loaded (smart politics, questionable economics)
- Gilt issuance lower than feared
- Sterling actually strengthened on the day
Sometimes doing “just enough” is exactly what markets need to calm down.
Bitcoin Above $91,000 – The King Returns
Remember when everyone declared crypto winter 2.0 just two weeks ago? Yeah, about that. Bitcoin spent Thanksgiving week casually climbing back above $91,000 for the first time in days. In a world searching for risk-on signals, nothing screams “animal spirits are back” quite like BTC breaking out during a US market holiday.
I’ve watched these cycles long enough to know: when Bitcoin leads the charge while stocks consolidate, something interesting is usually brewing beneath the surface.
Asia Steps Up While America Sleeps
Overnight action belonged to Asia, and they didn’t disappoint. Japanese stocks led with the Nikkei up over 1%, tech names carrying the torch. South Korea followed close behind. Even Chinese stocks managed decent gains despite ongoing property sector headaches.
The common thread? Relief that global growth fears might have been overdone. When Japanese and Korean tech outperforms while US markets are closed, pay attention – that’s real money rotating.
Oil, Gold, and the Dollar – The Usual Suspects
Crude held steady near $69 ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting – because apparently we need another production cut debate right before winter. Gold bounced around but found support on dollar weakness. Speaking of which, the DXY paused its recent slide, giving currency traders something to actually watch today.
The kiwi led G10 gainers after the RBNZ sounded less dovish than expected. Small currencies telling big stories – classic late-cycle behavior.
Corporate Moves That Actually Matter
Beneath the macro noise, real companies made real moves:
- Puma up 13% in Europe on takeover chatter (Anta Sports circling)
- JPMorgan committing to a massive new London HQ – vote of confidence in the City
- Oracle’s debt risk gauge hitting three-year highs (AI spending spree concerns)
- SoftBank CDS widening – because leveraged tech conglomerates never go out of style
These aren’t just ticker symbols. They’re real-time sentiment indicators from the sharp end of markets.
What This All Actually Means
Strip away the noise and here’s what I’m seeing: markets that refuse to stay scared. Four straight up days in the S&P after the November scare. Bitcoin breaking out. European stocks grinding higher despite fiscal drama. Asian tech leading while America sleeps.
This doesn’t feel like the exhausted grind of a tired bull market. It feels like money that’s been sitting on the sidelines finally saying “fine, I’ll play.”
Perhaps the most interesting aspect? All this happened while US markets were closed. When global risk appetite returns this strongly without Wall Street’s help, that’s usually a sign the trend has legs.
“We’re building up for a classic year-end rally. The macro environment continues to hold up well into 2026, corporate earnings look decent, and you get the added tailwind of lagged rate cuts.”
– Daniel Murray, EFG Asset Management
He’s probably right. And if this resilience holds through December – especially if we get that widely expected cut – then the path into 2026 starts looking very different from what anyone was pricing three weeks ago.
Enjoy the turkey. The market certainly seems to be enjoying itself.
Sometimes the quiet days speak the loudest. Today felt like one of those.
