I still remember the old trading floor wisdom: “If you’re not making money in November, something is seriously off.”
This year, something is seriously off.
With the bell set to ring early on Friday – just a half-day session after Thanksgiving – the numbers don’t lie. The S&P 500 is down about half a percent for the month. The Nasdaq? Over two percent in the red. Even the usually steady Dow is nursing a small loss. For the first time in half a year, the major averages are staring at a monthly defeat.
And honestly? That feels almost surreal.
A Month That Was Never Supposed to Happen
Let’s be brutally clear about the historical context here. Since 1950, November has been the best-performing month for the S&P 500 outside of the famous Santa Claus rally. Average gain? A comfortable 1.8%. In post-election years specifically, that number dips only slightly to around 1.6%.
In other words, November is the month where the market usually hands you money while you’re loosening your belt after turkey and pie.
Not this time.
Unless we see an absolutely explosive move higher in those final three hours of trading – the kind of move that would actually raise more eyebrows than it calms – we’re looking at the first negative November in years. And perhaps more importantly, we’re watching the end of one of the longest monthly winning streaks in modern market history.
The Streak That Died Quietly
The S&P 500 had been up six months straight. The Nasdaq? Seven. That’s the sort of consistency that makes investors feel invincible – the kind that breeds phrases like “don’t fight the tape” and “the trend is your friend.”
Those streaks now belong to the past.
I’ve been around long enough to know that streaks don’t die with a bang very often. They usually just… fade. A little give-back here, a quiet red candle there, and suddenly everyone realizes the party has been winding down while they were still ordering another round.
That’s exactly what November 2025 feels like.
Tech Got Punched in the Mouth
If you want to know where the pain was concentrated, look no further than the tech-heavy Nasdaq. Down over 2% for the month while everything else basically treaded water. That’s not a market-wide panic – that’s a sector-specific reality check.
We’ve grown so used to mega-cap tech carrying the entire market higher that we almost forgot they can drag it lower too. November reminded us, politely but firmly.
Was it profit-taking after the massive run? Sure, partly. Were higher bond yields making future cash flows look less attractive? Absolutely. Did the post-election policy uncertainty finally start to weigh on growth-sensitive names? You bet.
Whatever the mix of reasons, the result is the same: the leaders stumbled, and nobody else felt confident enough to pick up the baton.
This Wasn’t Your Grandfather’s Post-Election Year
Every four years we get the same script: election uncertainty peaks in October, the vote happens, and then markets exhale and rally into year-end on policy clarity.
That script got shredded in 2025.
From aggressive immigration rhetoric to sweeping statements about cutting benefits and subsidies, the incoming administration’s early messaging has been anything but the “business-friendly, pro-growth” playbook many expected. Markets hate surprises, and right now there are more questions than answers about tariffs, deregulation pace, fiscal policy, and Fed independence.
When the policy fog is this thick, even good news gets discounted.
“It’s hard to see the market, in the coming months – or even years – moving according to any historical trajectory anymore.”
I couldn’t agree more.
What the Pros Are Saying About 2026
One major Wall Street strategist recently put a target on the S&P 500 that calls for only single-digit gains next year. That would be a dramatic slowdown from the 20%+ moves we’ve grown accustomed to.
The reasoning? One of the market’s biggest tailwinds – multiple expansion driven by falling rates – is probably gone for a while. Without that fuel, earnings have to do all the heavy lifting. And earnings growth is expected to be decent, but not spectacular.
Translation: get ready for a more normal market. Maybe even a boring one. And boring markets tend to feel a lot worse than they actually are when you’ve spent years riding a rocket ship.
The Global Backdrop Isn’t Helping
While America was busy with turkey and politics, the rest of the world kept moving.
- South Korea just slapped sanctions on a major Cambodian conglomerate accused of massive fraud operations across Southeast Asia.
- Russia suddenly sounded almost reasonable about peace talks – which somehow feels more unsettling than the usual saber-rattling.
- Tokyo inflation came in hot, reminding everyone that Japan’s “reflation trade” might actually be working this time.
- And yes, there’s still that little matter of a potential $38 billion fine hanging over a certain fruit-company in India.
None of these are market-moving events on their own. But together? They create noise. And noisy environments are where momentum dies.
So What Happens Now?
Here’s the part nobody wants to hear: we might be entering a period where history is a worse guide than usual.
Seasonal patterns? Less reliable. Post-election scripts? Out the window. “Sell in May”? That one actually worked this decade, which tells you how upside-down everything has become.
In my experience, the markets that break the old rules the most convincingly are usually the ones setting up for entirely new ones. The question is whether those new rules will be kinder to investors or… less kind.
Either way, November 2025 will be remembered as the quiet month when the old playbook finally expired.
And maybe – just maybe – that’s exactly what we needed to wake up.
Whatever comes next, one thing feels certain: the easy money phase is over. The next leg of this bull – or bear – will have to be earned the old-fashioned way.
See you in December.
