Have you ever watched a stock move in almost perfect lockstep with a single cryptocurrency and thought, “This feels both insane and completely logical at the same time?” That’s exactly what’s happening with MicroStrategy right now.
On an otherwise quiet post-Thanksgiving Friday, shares of the business-intelligence company turned Bitcoin holding giant jumped more than 2%, pushing its market cap back toward the $50 billion mark. Nothing earth-shattering on the surface, sure. But when you zoom out, the move starts to make a lot more sense.
Bitcoin itself was flirting with the $92,000 level, still well off its recent all-time high but showing remarkable resilience. And then Tom Lee, one of the most followed voices on Wall Street when it comes to crypto, went on television and basically said the quiet part out loud: $100,000 before New Year’s is still very much on the table.
Why MicroStrategy Has Become Bitcoin’s Favorite Proxy
Let’s be honest. Most of us don’t wake up thinking about enterprise analytics software anymore when we hear the name MicroStrategy. The narrative flipped completely somewhere around 2020, when Michael Saylor decided the company’s balance sheet would become the most aggressive Bitcoin accumulation machine the corporate world has ever seen.
Fast-forward to today and the numbers are almost hard to believe. The company now sits on 649,870 BTC. At current prices, that’s nearly $60 billion worth of Bitcoin. Yes, you read that right—sixty billion. That single line item is now worth more than the entire market cap of most Fortune 500 companies.
So when Bitcoin sneezes, MicroStrategy catches a fever. When Bitcoin runs, MicroStrategy sprints. The stock has essentially become the highest-beta way to get Bitcoin exposure without actually touching the spot market or an ETF. And Wall Street has taken notice.
Tom Lee’s Latest Call: $100K This Year, $200K Next
Tom Lee didn’t mince words in his latest CNBC appearance. The Fundstrat co-founder reiterated that Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of 2025 remains not just possible, but “very likely.” That would require less than a 9% move from current levels—basically a strong weekend, historically speaking.
“Positioning is tight. Liquidity is turning. Momentum is building again. I still think $100,000 before year-end is in play.”
– Tom Lee, Fundstrat Global Advisors
He went further, too. Lee sees a realistic path to new all-time highs in 2026 and even floated $200,000 as an eventual target. The drivers he highlighted aren’t new, but they’re stacking up nicely: potential Fed rate cuts in 2026, continued institutional adoption, nation-state interest, and simple supply/demand math after the halving.
Perhaps the most interesting part? Lee isn’t just talking his book from the sidelines anymore. Through BitMine Immersion, the mining company where he serves as chairman, he’s become one of the largest Ethereum holders on the planet as well. The man is putting serious capital behind his convictions.
What $100K Bitcoin Actually Means for MSTR Stock
Let’s run the math quickly because it’s kind of stunning.
- Current Bitcoin holdings: 649,870 BTC
- Current value at $92,400: ~$60.1 billion
- Value at $100,000: ~$65 billion (an instant $5 billion unrealized gain)
- Value at $150,000: ~$97.5 billion
- Value at $200,000: ~$130 billion
Remember, the entire company is valued at roughly $50 billion right now. If Bitcoin simply returns to its previous all-time high near $109,000, the Bitcoin alone would be worth more than double today’s market cap. That’s before you even consider the premium investors are willing to pay for this unique corporate structure.
In my view, the market is currently pricing in somewhere around $120,000–$140,000 Bitcoin long-term just to justify the current valuation. Anything above that becomes pure upside.
Technical Picture: Extremely Oversold and Coiling
Zoom into the daily chart and things get even more interesting. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) just printed 23—one of the lowest readings of the entire bull market. For context, the only times we’ve seen RSI this low in recent years were absolute scream-buying opportunities.
The Stochastic Oscillator is similarly buried, and price is hugging the lower Bollinger Band like it’s scared to let go. These are classic conditions for a sharp reversal, especially when sentiment feels washed out.
The $230 level keeps jumping out as the first major resistance—basically the consolidation zone from earlier this year. Clear that on volume, and the path to $300+ opens up quickly. Fail to hold $150–$160 on any deeper pullback, though, and the bears could still have something to say.
The Bigger Trend Nobody’s Talking About
Here’s what keeps me up at night—in a good way. We’re watching the birth of an entirely new asset class in real time: the Bitcoin treasury company.
MicroStrategy pioneered it. Others are following. The playbook is simple: issue low-cost debt or equity when your stock is flying, buy as much Bitcoin as possible, rinse, repeat. The market rewards you with a premium because you’ve turned a software company into a hard-money bank.
Love it or hate it, the strategy has worked beyond anyone’s wildest dreams. Five years ago, MicroStrategy was a struggling $500 million market cap company. Today it’s a $50 billion behemoth, and the only thing that really changed was adding Bitcoin to the balance sheet.
That’s the kind of asymmetric bet most investors search their entire careers for.
Risks? Of Course There Are Risks
I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t mention the other side. Leverage cuts both ways. The company has issued billions in convertible notes to fund Bitcoin purchases. If we ever entered a prolonged bear market—think 70-80% drawdowns like 2018 or 2022—the debt becomes a real burden and forced selling becomes a possibility.
Regulatory risk hasn’t gone away either. A hostile administration could make life difficult (though the current trajectory looks far more favorable). And let’s be real—when your entire thesis rests on one volatile asset, you’re signing up for the full rollercoaster experience.
But here’s the thing: every single one of those risks was present at $20,000 Bitcoin, at $50,000 Bitcoin, and at $90,000 Bitcoin. The market keeps pricing in disaster and getting a moonshot instead.
Where We Stand Right Now
As I write this, Bitcoin is consolidating just under $93,000, MSTR is changing hands around $180, and the options market is starting to price in some serious upside volatility into year-end.
The combination of an oversold technical setup, renewed analyst conviction, and the simple fact that Bitcoin tends to go completely berserk in the final six weeks of bull years… well, it feels like we’re standing at the starting line of something big again.
Whether you’re a Bitcoin believer, a chart watcher, or just someone who likes asymmetric opportunities, MicroStrategy remains one of the most fascinating stories in markets today.
And if Tom Lee is even half right? Buckle up. The ride might be just getting started.
Disclosure: The author holds Bitcoin and MicroStrategy shares. This is not financial advice. Always do your own research.
