Remember when Black Friday meant waking up at 4 a.m., standing in freezing parking lots, and fighting over the last discounted TV? Well, something interesting is happening this year. The chaos is back – bigger than ever – but the players have changed.
I’ve been watching holiday shopping patterns for years, and honestly, 2025 feels different. There’s an energy in the air that reminds me of pre-pandemic seasons, when shopping wasn’t just about buying gifts… it was an event. And according to the latest numbers, we’re about to see one of the biggest Thanksgiving weekend turnouts in recent history.
The Big Number Everyone’s Talking About
Here’s the stat that stopped me in my tracks: nearly 187 million people are expected to shop between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday. That’s not just a slight bump from last year – it’s a statement. Americans are ready to spend, ready to celebrate, and frankly, ready to treat themselves after years of cautious budgets.
Last year, experts predicted 183.4 million shoppers. Guess what actually happened? Almost 197 million showed up. If that pattern holds – and early indicators suggest it very well might – we could be looking at the busiest holiday shopping kickoff since records began.
But it’s not just about the raw numbers. What fascinates me is who is driving this surge and why they’re so motivated this season.
Black Friday Is Still King – But Barely
Let’s be real for a second: I thought Black Friday’s dominance was fading. With Prime Day, early November sales, and constant online discounts, I figured the traditional door-buster madness was becoming nostalgic.
I was wrong.
A full 70 percent of consumers still plan to shop on Black Friday itself. That’s not just holding steady – it’s a cultural institution at this point. There’s something about the energy of the day, the shared experience, the thrill of scoring that perfect deal that no amount of online convenience has managed to kill.
“Many Americans consider shopping to be an important part of their Thanksgiving holiday and one of the best ways to get deals on gifts.”
– Consumer research executive
And they’re not wrong. The deals really are that good this year.
The Unexpected Rise of Nostalgic Toys
Here’s where things get really interesting. Walk into any major retailer right now, and you’ll see something that feels like a time warp: Lego sets dominating endcaps, Barbie displays that look straight out of 1965, Hot Wheels tracks everywhere, classic dolls making a comeback.
This isn’t coincidence. This is calculated nostalgia.
Parents who grew up with these toys in the ’80s and ’90s are now buying them for their kids – but there’s more to it than that. These toys represent something simpler, something tangible in a world that feels increasingly digital and complicated. In my view, buying a Lego set isn’t just purchasing a toy. It’s buying a piece of childhood certainty in uncertain times.
- Lego remains the undisputed king of holiday wish lists
- Barbie is having perhaps her strongest year ever
- Hot Wheels continues its decades-long winning streak
- Classic dolls are outselling many modern alternatives
Retail buyers didn’t predict this trend by accident. They saw the data: when people feel anxious about the future, they reach for the past.
The Generational Shift Happening Right Now
Perhaps the most intriguing development? Younger shoppers are leading the charge.
Gen Z and millennials aren’t just participating – they’re dominating Thanksgiving weekend spending patterns. Nearly three-quarters of Gen Z shoppers plan to do most of their holiday purchasing during this five-day window. That’s higher than any other generation.
Why does this matter? Because these generations shop differently. They research deals for weeks. They’re influenced by social media creators. They care about supporting small businesses. They’re more likely to split their spending between online giants and local shops.
And speaking of local shops…
Small Business Saturday Is No Longer an Afterthought
Remember when Small Business Saturday felt like a polite suggestion? Those days are gone.
This year, 67 million people are expected to deliberately shop local on the Saturday after Thanksgiving. That’s not pocket change – that’s a movement.
I love this development. There’s something deeply satisfying about knowing your purchase helps a neighbor keep their lights on. And consumers clearly agree. The “shop small” message has evolved from a marketing campaign into genuine consumer behavior.
The Money Story: How Much Are We Really Spending?
Let’s talk dollars and cents.
The average shopper plans to spend around $890 on gifts and holiday items this season. That number jumps noticeably higher for families with children – about $33 more per household, which adds up quickly when multiplied across millions of families.
Across the entire Thanksgiving weekend, total spending is projected to hit $127 billion. That’s billion with a B. And it’s $2 billion more than last year.
These aren’t abstract numbers. This is money flowing through registers, supporting jobs, keeping stores open, funding the entire retail ecosystem that employs millions of Americans.
The Online vs. In-Store Battle Isn’t Over
Cyber Monday still matters – about 40 percent of consumers plan to shop online that day. But here’s what caught my attention: 80 percent of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers plan to visit physical retail locations.
Eighty percent.
After years of hearing that physical retail was dying, this feels like a comeback story. People want the experience. They want to touch products, try on clothes, feel the holiday atmosphere. Online shopping is convenient, but it can’t replicate the sensory overload of a bustling mall decked out in Christmas decorations with holiday music playing.
The most successful retailers this season? The ones mastering both worlds – offering killer online deals while creating in-store experiences worth leaving the house for.
Why This Year Feels Different
I’ve covered holiday shopping seasons for a long time, and 2025 has a different vibe. There’s optimism in these numbers that feels genuine, not manufactured.
People aren’t just shopping because they need to buy gifts. They’re shopping because they want to. Because the deals are legitimately good. Because gathering with family, eating too much turkey, and then heading out to hunt for bargains feels… normal again.
Maybe that’s the real story here. After years of disruption, caution, and change, Americans are reclaiming their traditions. And if spending time with loved ones and finding joy in giving gifts is part of that tradition, then 187 million shoppers showing up ready to participate feels less like commerce and more like celebration.
The registers will ring, the online carts will fill, and somewhere between the chaos of Black Friday morning and the quiet satisfaction of Cyber Monday night, we’ll remember what this season has always been about: connection, generosity, and the simple pleasure of finding the perfect gift.
Welcome back, holiday shopping season. We’ve missed you.
