Remember when the biggest holiday stress was finding the perfect gift? This year, for millions of us, the real headache is simply affording any gifts at all.
I was chatting with a friend last week – she’s a mom of three, works full-time – and she dropped a line that stuck with me: “I used to stress about what to buy people. Now I stress about whether I should buy anything at all.” Turns out she’s far from alone.
The 2025 Holiday Squeeze Is Real
A fresh nationwide survey just dropped numbers that confirm what many of us feel in our bank accounts: nearly 80% of Americans believe everyday items cost more this year than last. And it’s not just perception – prices on everything from toys to clothing to electronics have climbed noticeably.
The result? Four in ten people say they’re planning to spend less this holiday season because of it. That’s not a small shift. That’s a seismic change in consumer behavior right before the biggest shopping period of the year.
And here’s the part that surprised me: when people do cut back, the very first thing to go isn’t personal treats or entertainment. It’s gifts for others.
Where the Cuts Are Happening
Among those spending less, a full 60% say they’re reducing what they spend on presents for friends and family. That hit me kind of hard. We’re talking about grandparents buying fewer toys for grandkids, parents scaling back on teen wish lists, friends doing “no gifts this year” pacts.
Close behind, almost half say they’ll:
- Dine out less during the holidays
- Buy fewer things for themselves
- Skip big-ticket purchases entirely
- Cut entertainment spending (think movies, concerts, holiday events)
It’s like the joy is slowly leaking out of the season, one canceled tradition at a time.
The Tariff Question: Noise or Real Impact?
Everyone’s talking about tariffs these days, especially with new policies looming. So researchers asked: are tariffs changing your holiday plans?
The answer was surprisingly balanced – 40% say yes, they’ll spend less because of tariffs, while 39% say it won’t affect them at all. The rest aren’t sure. In other words, it’s a concern, but not the dominant one. Day-to-day price increases still hurt more.
“People aren’t thinking in terms of trade policy when they’re standing in Target. They’re thinking, ‘This used to be $30 and now it’s $45. Something’s got to give.’”
We’re Still Shopping – Just Differently
Here’s the good news (sort of): 82% of Americans still plan to do some holiday shopping. The season isn’t canceled. But the when and where are shifting dramatically.
That same 82% say they’ll do most of their shopping outside the Thanksgiving weekend frenzy. Only 15% now say Black Friday and Cyber Monday are their main shopping days. That’s a huge cultural shift from even five years ago.
- Black Friday: still draws 45% of shoppers
- Cyber Monday: 39%
- Regular weeks in November/December: now the majority strategy
People are getting smarter – or maybe just more exhausted – spreading purchases out, hunting deals longer, avoiding the chaos.
Small Business Saturday: Loved in Theory, Skipped in Practice
I’ve always been a fan of Small Business Saturday. There’s something nice about supporting local shops, grabbing a coffee, feeling like your money stays in the community.
But this year, only about a quarter of people plan to participate. Why?
- 41% don’t know what local businesses are participating
- 25% say prices are higher than big retailers
- Nearly 20% complain about shipping inconveniences
It’s a tough spot. We want to “shop small,” but when money’s tight, convenience and price win.
How People Are Coping This Year
So if budgets are shrinking, how are folks making it work? The answers show a mix of discipline and creativity:
- Nearly half are simply spending less on non-essentials
- A third are leaning hard on coupons, sales, and loyalty programs
- 17% have set a firm holiday budget – and interestingly, Gen Z and millennials are twice as likely to do this as older generations
That last point fascinates me. Younger shoppers – the ones often stereotyped as reckless with money – are actually the most likely to budget carefully this season. Maybe getting priced out of housing and crushed by student loans teaches financial caution early.
What This Means for the Bigger Picture
Let’s zoom out for a second.
When four in ten households cut spending – especially on gifts – that fuel retail, shipping, manufacturing, and small businesses – the ripple effects are massive. Economists will be watching holiday sales numbers like hawks, because they tell us whether the “soft landing” is real or if consumers are finally tapping out.
Personally, I think the most interesting aspect is how this might permanently change holiday culture. Are we moving toward simpler, less commercial celebrations? Will “experiences over things” finally win? Or will this just be a blip once wages catch up?
Only time will tell. But one thing feels certain: the days of mindless holiday splurging feel increasingly behind us.
Final Thoughts: It’s Okay to Scale Back
If you’re feeling the squeeze this year, you’re not alone. And honestly? There’s no shame in a leaner holiday.
Maybe this is the year we revive handwritten cards, bake cookies together, watch old movies, play board games. Maybe the pressure valve releasing on spending forces us – pleasantly – to remember what actually matters.
Or maybe I’m just trying to feel better about my own shorter shopping list this year.
Either way, the numbers don’t lie: 2025 is the year holiday spending grew up. Whether we like it or not.
