Imagine this: after almost four years of a grinding, bloody war that has reshaped Europe’s security map, the man in the Kremlin suddenly says an American peace plan “could be the basis” for ending it.
It’s the kind of sentence that makes diplomats spill their coffee and analysts scramble for their notebooks. And that is exactly what happened yesterday when the Russian leader, speaking to reporters in Bishkek, gave his most surprisingly constructive comments yet on Washington’s latest attempt to stop the fighting in Ukraine.
A Glimmer of Hope or Just Diplomatic Theater?
Let us be honest — we have been here before. Countless “breakthroughs” have come and gone since 2022. Most ended in accusations, new sanctions, or another wave of missiles. Yet something feels different this time, and it largely has to do with who is sitting in the White House and who he has sent to talk to Moscow.
The Russian president did not endorse the document outright. He was careful, almost lawyerly, in his wording. But calling a Western proposal a potential basis for negotiations is, in the context of this war, about as close to enthusiasm as he ever gets.
What We Know About the Mysterious 28-Point Plan
The document itself remains semi-secret. What has leaked suggests it is a comprehensive attempt to address nearly every sticky issue that has blocked peace efforts for years.
- A ceasefire along the current line of contact
- Security guarantees for Ukraine (the exact nature still debated)
- Some form of international peacekeeping or monitoring force
- Humanitarian measures and prisoner exchanges
- A roadmap for elections in Ukraine
- And, of course, the eternal question of territory
Apparently the original American draft was reworked after discussions in Geneva. The revised version reportedly splits those 28 points into four separate baskets — a classic diplomatic trick to make the medicine go down easier.
The Russian side says it has received this new version and is studying it. That alone is noteworthy. In previous rounds Moscow often rejected Western proposals within hours.
The Legitimacy Problem Moscow Won’t Let Go
If there is one issue the Russian leader returned to again and again, it was the question of who exactly Russia would be signing an agreement with.
“Signing documents with the Ukrainian leadership is pointless… the president lost his legitimate status.”
This is not a new talking point, but he delivered it with fresh intensity. Under Ukraine’s constitution, presidential elections should have been held last year. Martial law suspended them, and the current president remains in office on what many legal scholars call shaky ground.
From Moscow’s perspective this is a killer argument: why bind yourself to promises made by someone whose mandate has technically expired? Western capitals dismiss the point as propaganda, but it clearly resonates in parts of the Global South and even among some European legal experts.
Territory: The Line in the Sand That Never Moves
And then there is the territorial question — the one issue that has ended every previous negotiation before it really started.
The Russian position remains unchanged: the four annexed regions plus Crimea are Russian territory, full stop. Any peace deal must recognize that reality on the ground.
When asked what happens if Ukraine refuses to cede those areas, his answer was chilling in its simplicity:
“If they don’t withdraw, we will achieve this through military means.”
In other words, Russia is perfectly happy to keep fighting until the map matches its claims. That is a sobering reminder that warm words about “basis for agreement” do not mean capitulation.
The European Attack Clause — “Ridiculous but Fine”
One of the lighter moments came when journalists asked about reports that the draft includes a Russian commitment not to attack other European countries.
His response was almost comical:
“We never had any such intentions. But if they want to have it formalized, let’s do it, no problem.”
It was the diplomatic equivalent of a shrug. Moscow clearly sees this clause as harmless theater — the kind of reassurance European capitals need to save face.
The Trump Factor Nobody Can Ignore
Perhaps the biggest difference between this round of talks and all the previous failed attempts is the man in the Oval Office.
President Trump has made ending the Ukraine war one of his signature foreign-policy promises. His special envoy — a real-estate magnate turned diplomat — is scheduled to visit Moscow next week. That visit alone sends a powerful signal: Washington is serious.
Unlike the previous administration, the current team appears willing to pressure both sides. There are already reports of tense phone calls between Washington and Kyiv over the legitimacy issue and the territorial question.
In my experience watching these negotiations, real progress only starts when the mediator is ready to twist arms on all sides. For the first time in years, that might actually be happening.
What Happens Next? Three Scenarios
So where does this leave us? Here are the three most likely paths I see unfolding over the coming months:
- Gradual De-escalation — Both sides use the American framework to freeze the front line, exchange prisoners, and begin the long, painful process of rebuilding trust. Actual territorial settlement is kicked years down the road.
- Korean-Style Armistice — A formal ceasefire is signed without resolving the underlying issues. Ukraine becomes a heavily armed buffer state, neither fully in NATO nor fully neutral.
- Collapse of Talks — One side (probably Kyiv) decides the concessions are too painful. Fighting resumes with greater intensity as both sides race to improve their battlefield position before winter.
My money is on door number two. History suggests great-power conflicts rarely end with tidy treaties. They more often freeze into long, uncomfortable truces that everyone pretends are permanent.
Why This Moment Feels Different
Look, I have been skeptical about every previous “peace initiative” in this war — Istanbul, Jeddah, Switzerland, you name it. But several factors make this round feel less doomed from the start:
- Battlefield exhaustion is real on both sides
- Western ammunition stockpiles are under severe strain
- Russia’s economy is showing cracks despite official bravado
- A new American administration that actually wants a deal
- China quietly pressing Moscow to wrap things up
When all those pressures align, strange things become possible.
That does not mean peace is around the corner. It means, for the first time in a very long while, the door is not completely slammed shut.
And sometimes, in diplomacy, that is all you need to start.
We will know a lot more after the Moscow visit next week. Until then, keep your eyes on the small diplomatic signals — who meets whom, which phrases get repeated, which topics suddenly disappear from official statements.
Those are the real tea leaves in this game. The big public declarations? They’re mostly noise.
But yesterday, for a brief moment, the noise sounded almost hopeful.
