Every year around this time I find myself digging through the same dusty pile of market history, and every year the same truth stares back at me: December is magical for stocks — but a select few names turn that magic into pure fireworks.
Think about it. While most people are stressing over holiday shopping lists, certain companies quietly rack up gains that would make even the Grinch crack a smile. And no, this isn’t just random luck. The numbers going back decades are almost stupidly consistent.
The Quiet Power of December Seasonality
Since 1950, December ranks as the third-strongest month for both the Dow and the S&P 500. For the Nasdaq, going back to 1971, it’s the same story. We’re talking averages that regularly beat the rest of the calendar — and that’s before we even look at the real overachievers.
I’ve watched this pattern play out so many times that I now treat the flip of the calendar to December like an unofficial green light. Tax-loss harvesting fades, pension funds rebalance, bonuses get deployed, and suddenly the path of least resistance is up. A lot.
But here’s what really gets me excited: a handful of stocks don’t just ride this wave — they surf the crest like absolute pros. Over the past ten years, some have delivered average December returns that make the broader market look sleepy.
The Semiconductor Beast That Refuses to Cool Off
Let’s start with the name that practically jumps off the screen when you run the numbers: Broadcom.
This isn’t some obscure small-cap gamble. We’re talking about a company that’s already up more than 72% year-to-date in 2025 — and yet December has historically been its personal playground. The average gain for this stock in the final month over the past decade? North of 10%. Let that sink in for a second.
Ten percent in one month. In a market where people celebrate 10% annual returns, that’s borderline ridiculous. And before you say “yeah but it’s already run so much,” remember that momentum tends to feed itself this time of year. Wall Street loves a winner, especially when the calendar gives everyone permission to chase.
Momentum going into year-end rarely dies in December — it usually accelerates.
Analysts are still pounding the table too. The consensus price target sits about 3.5% above recent levels, and the ratings are overwhelmingly positive. Just this month a major investment bank raised their target again, citing building momentum heading into the next earnings report. When the smart money keeps lifting targets in late November, experience tells me to pay attention.
Beauty Stocks and the Holiday Glow-Up
Next up is a name that perfectly captures the holiday spirit: Estee Lauder.
Makeup and skincare fly off the shelves between Black Friday and New Year’s, and Estee Lauder has been cashing in on that frenzy for years. The historical December average? A very respectable 4.6%. Not life-changing on its own, but when you zoom out and see the upside baked into analyst targets — roughly 10% from current levels — things start looking interesting.
Now, I’ll be honest — the stock has had a rougher ride lately, and only about a third of analysts currently carry a buy rating. That actually kind of excites me. When a stock with this kind of seasonal tailwind is flying somewhat under the radar, it creates the exact setup I love heading into year-end.
- Holiday gift sets drive massive volume
- Travel retail rebounds hard in December
- Consumers “treat themselves” after a year of holding back
Put those factors together and you’ve got a recipe for outperformance that’s worked like clockwork more often than not.
The Trillion-Dollar Health Giant Still Climbing
Then there’s the newest member of the trillion-dollar club: Eli Lilly.
Fresh off becoming the first healthcare company to hit that milestone, you’d think the easy money was already made. But history says December tends to be kind to this name too — an average pop of 4.3% over the past ten years.
Here’s where it gets weird though: the consensus price target actually sits slightly below current levels. That tells me one of two things is likely — either analysts are being conservative (which happens a lot with mega-caps), or the stock has gotten a bit ahead of itself short-term. My money’s on the former.
Why? Because the underlying drivers — breakthrough weight-loss drugs, diabetes treatments, pipeline momentum — aren’t going anywhere. And when a company this size has positive December seasonality baked into its DNA, I’ve learned not to bet against the calendar.
Why December Works (And Why It Might Work Even Better This Year)
Look, I’m not saying these stocks are guaranteed to rocket higher. Markets love to humble anyone who speaks in absolutes. But the combination of historical tendency, seasonal tailwinds, and current sentiment creates a setup that’s hard to ignore.
We’ve got lower trading volume (which amplifies moves), mutual funds window-dressing their year-end reports, individual investors deploying year-end bonuses, and yes — that elusive “holiday spirit” that somehow translates into buying pressure.
Add in the fact that 2025 has already been a banner year for risk assets, and the stage feels set for the traditional Santa Claus rally to show up fashionably on time.
The last five trading days of December into the first two of January have produced an average gain of 1.3% for the S&P 500 since 1950 — that’s the famous Santa Claus rally. But the real winners often start running well before Christmas.
How I’m Thinking About Positioning
Personally? I’m not trying to reinvent the wheel here. When the historical data lines up this cleanly, I’d rather ride the trend than fight it.
That might mean adding to names I already own that show up on these seasonal winner lists. It might mean taking a fresh look at ones I’ve ignored because they “already ran too much.” Sometimes the obvious trade is the right one — especially when the calendar is doing half the heavy lifting for you.
The beauty of December is that it doesn’t require perfect timing. You’ve got roughly four weeks of historically favorable conditions. Miss the first move? There’s often another one coming.
Of course, none of this is financial advice — just one investor sharing what the data keeps showing year after year. But if you’ve ever wondered why certain stocks seem to defy gravity every December while others muddle along, now you know: some companies just have that holiday magic hardwired into their chart.
Here’s to hoping this December delivers more of the same — preferably with a side of peace on earth and gains for all.
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