Have you ever watched a coin you love get absolutely crushed for months, only to suddenly spot something on the chart that makes your heart race?
That’s exactly where I found myself this weekend staring at Ethereum. Down almost 40% from its 2025 peak, hovering right on the $3,000 round number like it’s scared to fall further… and then I saw it. A gigantic falling wedge so clean it almost looks drawn by a robot. Except robots don’t usually draw patterns this bullish.
And the timing? Perfect. We’re literally days away from the Fusaka hard fork. So let’s dig in, because this setup feels different.
The Chart That’s Making Ethereum Traders Sweat (In a Good Way)
I’m not usually one for hyperbole, but this falling wedge is textbook perfection.
Picture two descending trendlines slowly converging over months, price making lower highs and lower lows, volume drying up, and then… nothing. Just consolidation right on top of major support. That’s Ethereum since September.
The lower trendline has been tested four times now. Each touch weaker than the last. Classic exhaustion behavior. Meanwhile the upper trendline is getting dangerously close. When these two finally kiss, something has to give — and history says it’s almost always to the upside.
In fact, falling wedges have a measured move that usually takes price to the height of the pattern’s base. Do the math on this one and you’re looking at roughly $4,200–$4,500 if it breaks north. Not life-changing for 2021 veterans, maybe, but a solid 50%+ from current levels.
Other Indicators Are Starting to Wake Up Too
It’s not just the wedge. The MACD just printed a bullish crossover for the first time since August. The RSI has crawled back above 40 and is curling higher. Even the Supertrend flipped green on the 3-day chart last week — something that preceded the November rally.
Perhaps most interesting? On-chain volume is picking up while exchange balances continue dropping. Someone is accumulating, and they’re doing it quietly.
Fusaka Drops in Less Than 72 Hours — Here’s Why It Actually Matters
Everyone’s heard “this upgrade changes everything” a thousand times. Most of the time it’s noise. Fusaka feels different, and here’s why I actually care this round.
The headline feature is Peer-to-Peer Data Availability Sampling (PeerDAS). Sounds boring until you realize it lets validators verify rollup data without downloading the entire blob. Translation: way less bandwidth, way less storage, way higher throughput for layer-2s.
- Blob fees become more predictable (goodbye MEV insanity)
- Verkle trees get rolled out — smaller witness sizes, faster syncs, stateless clients move closer to reality
- History expiry tweaks start laying groundwork for keeping node requirements reasonable long-term
In plain English: Ethereum is about to get cheaper and faster for the exact use cases that matter most right now — DeFi, RWAs, and layer-2 ecosystems. Arbitrum, Optimism, Base, and zkSync chains all win. And when the L2s win, Ethereum wins even harder because of fee burn.
“PeerDAS is the biggest scalability leap since Danksharding was proposed. We’re talking 10x–100x higher blob throughput without breaking decentralization.”
— Core developer commentary, Nov 2025
The Whale Accumulation Nobody’s Talking About
Remember that screenshot floating around X this weekend? A wallet linked to BitMine Immersion — yes, the one backed by Cathie Wood and Peter Thiel — scooped another 16,693 ETH in a single transaction. That’s over $50 million at current prices.
They’ve been doing this all year. Quietly. No tweets, no press releases, just relentless buying every time ETH dips below $3,200. Their total holdings are now estimated north of $10 billion in ETH alone.
Smart money tends to front-run upgrades. They did it before Dencun, they did it before the Merge, and they’re doing it again. I’ve learned long ago: when the big players are this consistent, it usually pays to listen.
The Bear Case (Because We Should Always Look at Both Sides)
Look, I’m excited, but I’m not blind. There are legitimate risks.
- Bitcoin dominance is still climbing — money could keep rotating out of alts
- Macro liquidity conditions remain shaky with rates still elevated
- A break below $2,635 invalidates the entire wedge and opens the door to $2,200
- Upgrades have been delayed before; nothing is guaranteed until the fork actually happens
That said, the risk/reward here feels heavily skewed to the upside. You’re buying at multi-month support with a major catalyst days away and a chart screaming reversal. Worst case, stops are tight. Best case… well, let’s just say $4,200 would feel conservative.
What I’m Watching This Week
Three things, really:
- Can ETH close a daily candle above $3,150? That would break the upper wedge line and likely trigger FOMO.
- Volume on the breakout — I want to see at least 30–40B spot volume to trust it.
- Layer-2 TVL reaction post-fork. If we see an immediate spike in deposits to Arbitrum/Base/Optimism, the narrative flips hard.
Until then, I’m sitting tight with a small long and a stop below $2,850. Feels like the calm before something big.
Ethereum has been beaten up all autumn. The chart is exhausted. The upgrade is imminent. The whales are loaded.
Sometimes the best trades are the ones that feel obvious in hindsight. This might be one of those times.
Disclosure: I hold ETH and am long with leverage. This is not financial advice — always do your own research.
