Have you ever watched Bitcoin climb for weeks, hit a wall, and then suddenly drop hard enough to make your stomach turn?
That’s exactly what happened in the first hours of December 2025. The price touched almost $92k, got violently rejected, and within hours we were staring at $86k on the screen. Panic tweets everywhere, liquidation candles lighting up like fireworks, the usual crypto drama.
But here’s the thing – some of the sharpest traders I follow didn’t even blink. In fact, one of the most respected voices in the space basically said: “Yeah, this was scripted.” And when you zoom out, he’s absolutely right.
Why December 1st Almost Always Brings a Bitcoin Shakeout
There’s something almost spooky about how predictable the first trading day of a new month has become in crypto.
New month = portfolio rebalancing for institutions, monthly options expiry hangovers, algo systems resetting their parameters, and – most importantly – fresh liquidity maps being drawn. All of that tends to create a vacuum that price loves to exploit.
This time was textbook. Bitcoin had been grinding higher through November, painting higher lows, looking unstoppable. Then boom – Asia opens, volume is thin, and the algorithms smell blood.
“Just on the clock, a new month starts, algorithms are activated, and the price is lower. Liquidity is significantly low… Nothing changed in the price action of Bitcoin.”
– Leading European crypto analyst, Dec 1 2025
When you hear it put that bluntly, it almost feels obvious in hindsight.
The Ghost of October 10 Still Haunts Market Makers
Remember October 10th? That brutal wick down to the low $50ks that wiped out an absurd amount of leveraged longs and shorts in the same candle? A lot of market-making firms and prop desks got absolutely destroyed that day.
Many of them either scaled way back or closed crypto books entirely. The result? The bid side of the order book is still noticeably thinner than it was during the summer.
When moderate selling hits a thin book, price doesn’t “correct” – it free-falls until it finds real demand. And that’s exactly what we saw: a sweep of the range lows, massive liquidations, and then… buyers stepped in aggressively.
Funny how that works. The same low liquidity that causes the crash often caps how far it can actually go, because there simply isn’t enough supply to keep pushing lower once stops are cleared.
Resistance Isn’t a Line – It’s a Zone (And It’s Thick)
One thing that gets lost in the noise is that Bitcoin didn’t just “fail at $92k” out of nowhere.
We’ve been flirting with the $90k–$92k zone for weeks now. Every single touch has been sold – not because “someone big is dumping,” but because that zone is stacked with:
- Previous all-time high supply from 2021/2022
- Monthly VWAP anchors
- Gamma walls from the options market
- Fibonacci extension confluence
- Psychological round numbers
When you layer that many reasons to sell on top of each other, of course it’s going to take more than one attempt to break through. I’ve lost count of how many times I’ve seen exactly this setup – price probes, gets rejected multiple times, shakes out weak hands, then finally punches through on the third or fourth try.
That’s not wishful thinking. That’s just how supply/demand zones work.
So Is the Bull Market Over?
Not even close.
Look, I get it – seeing $86k after being at $92k twelve hours earlier feels awful. But zoom out to the weekly chart and honestly tell me the structure looks broken. I’ll wait.
Still higher highs, still higher lows, still above every major moving average, funding rates reset to neutral, open interest washed out. If anything, this move just cleaned house and set us up for the next leg.
The analysts who have been consistently right this cycle aren’t suddenly bearish. They’re saying the exact same thing they were saying two weeks ago: we’re in a range, we need to clear resistance, and once we do it’s blue sky again.
What I’m Watching Over the Next 7–14 Days
Here’s my personal short-term roadmap (your mileage may vary, not advice, etc.):
- Hold $82k–$84k range lows – if we lose this, then yeah, maybe the party’s on pause for longer.
- Reclaim $90k with conviction – closing a daily or weekly candle above $90k flips the structure aggressively bullish again.
- Volume profile support – the heaviest volume since the breakout is sitting right around current levels. Defense here would be extremely bullish.
- CME gap at $89,450 – tends to act like a magnet. Wouldn’t be shocked to see us fill it before pushing higher.
If we get a clean sweep of $90k–$92k resistance in the next couple of weeks (and I think we will), then the path to $100k+ becomes very straightforward. The amount of sidelined capital waiting for “confirmation” is massive.
The Bigger Picture Nobody Wants to Talk About
While everyone’s busy zooming into 5-minute candles and crying about a 6% drop, the macro setup for Bitcoin has arguably never been better.
Global liquidity is turning up again. Central banks are easing. Real rates are negative in many places. The dollar is rolling over. Institutional adoption stories keep piling up quietly in the background.
These shakeouts? They’re noise. Necessary noise, even. They keep the market healthy by preventing it from going fully parabolic too early.
I’ve been through enough cycles to know that the most painful moments – the ones where Twitter is screaming “bear market” – are usually the exact moments when the smartest money is accumulating.
“The current decline represents a standard reset in a market still building momentum rather than a sign of weakness.”
Could we go lower? Sure. Markets love to disappoint the crowd. But does the weight of evidence suggest this is setting up for a breakdown?
Not in my book.
Stay patient, zoom out, and remember: Bitcoin has never made it easy for anyone. If it was obvious, everyone would be rich.
See you on the next leg up.
