Have you ever watched the entire crypto market bleed out while one single coin just… refuses to die? That’s exactly what’s happening right now, and honestly, it feels almost surreal.
Bitcoin is down more than six percent in the last 24 hours. Ethereum is getting hammered even harder. Solana, XRP, BNB — you name it, it’s red. Liquidations are piling up past the $600 million mark, and panic is the word of the day. Yet here stands Monero, up roughly 10% over the past week, trading comfortably above $410, looking like it couldn’t care less about the carnage around it.
Seriously, what is going on?
The One Privacy Coin That Won’t Back Down
Let’s be real for a second. Privacy coins have had a wild couple of months. Back in October we watched Zcash explode more than 1,600% in a matter of weeks, Dash quadrupled, and every obscure privacy project suddenly had its moment in the sun. Then reality hit — most of them came crashing back down just as fast.
But Monero? It quietly climbed 30% from its late-November low, kept its cool, and now it’s the only major privacy coin still green on the weekly chart. That’s not luck. That feels like rotation — traders taking profits from the blown-out privacy pumps and moving into the OG that actually still has room to run.
A Textbook Golden Cross Just Fired
If you trade anything on the daily timeframe, you already know what I’m about to say. The 50-day simple moving average just crossed above the 200-day SMA on Monero’s chart. Yes — the famous golden cross.
Before you roll your eyes and say “moving average crossovers are lagging,” hear me out. Historically, when this pattern confirms on decent volume (and we have it), the follow-through can be brutal to the upside. We’ve seen it on Bitcoin multiple times, on Ethereum, on plenty of large-cap alts. Monero is now joining that club.
There is literally no significant resistance between the current price and the psychological $500 level. The path is clear if buyers stay committed.
Momentum Indicators Are Screaming “Go”
It’s not just the moving averages. The MACD just flipped bullish with the histogram expanding upward — classic sign that momentum is shifting into higher gear. And if you’re into the Aroon indicator (I am, because it catches trend strength early), the Aroon Up is pinned at 100% while Aroon Down sits at a measly 28%. Translation: upside pressure is overwhelming right now.
When almost every momentum tool lines up at the same time, you don’t ignore it. You pay attention.
Futures Traders Are All In — Maybe Too Much?
Here’s where things get spicy. Open interest in Monero perpetual futures has jumped from about $55 million to over $70 million in less than a week. That’s a massive influx of leveraged money.
On one hand, soaring OI is usually a bullish tell — it shows new money entering the trade, not just price moving on thin volume. On the other hand… we all know what happens when leverage gets too crowded. One big liquidation cascade and the house of cards can tumble fast.
In my experience, futures-driven rallies can absolutely overshoot to the upside, but they’re fragile. If spot demand doesn’t step in to absorb the selling on any pullback, we could see a nasty snap lower. Right now spot volume is decent but not overwhelming. Something to watch very closely.
Why Privacy Still Matters in 2025
Let’s zoom out for a minute. Privacy coins get a bad rap sometimes — regulators hate them, exchanges delist them, and the mainstream narrative loves to paint them as tools for the dark side. But the truth is simpler: people want financial privacy. Always have, always will.
Think about it. We’ve got central banks rolling out CBDCs left and right, chain analysis firms tracking every UTXO, and governments demanding KYC for DeFi wallets. In that world, a truly private, fungible digital cash isn’t just nice to have — it’s becoming a necessity for a lot of people.
Monero remains the undisputed king of that niche. Ring signatures, stealth addresses, bulletproofs — the tech is battle-tested and keeps getting better. While meme coins come and go, the core use case for XMR isn’t going anywhere.
The Road to $500: Realistic or Overhyped?
- Current price: ~$413–$419
- Next major psychological level: $500 (20% upside from here)
- Historical all-time high: $542 (only 30% above current levels)
- No overhead supply until the 2021 highs around $517
- Entire crypto market cap still above $2.8 trillion — plenty of liquidity if sentiment flips
Twenty to thirty percent in crypto isn’t exactly moon territory. We’ve seen alts do that in a single weekend when the stars align. And right now, a lot of stars are lining up for Monero.
That said, nothing moves in a straight line. If Bitcoin decides to test $80k or lower, even the strongest alt can get dragged down temporarily. Risk management still matters.
What Would Kill This Setup?
Fair question. Here are the biggest threats I see right now:
- Mass unwinding of leveraged long positions (watch funding rates)
- Broader market capitulation below key support levels
- Any surprise regulatory headline specifically targeting privacy coins
- Failure to break and hold $440 convincingly on the next leg up
If none of those happen in the next few days, the path of least resistance remains higher.
Final Thoughts — My Take
I’ve been around crypto long enough to know that being the only green candle in a sea of red rarely lasts forever — eventually the market either catches up or drags you down with it. But short term? Monero is showing real relative strength.
The golden cross is confirmed, momentum indicators are aligned, open interest is surging, and there’s a clean shot at $500 with almost no historical resistance in the way. In a market desperate for narratives, privacy could be the one that rotates back into favor.
Will it happen? Nobody knows for sure. But right now, Monero is one of the very few coins that actually looks interesting on the charts while everything else is screaming “danger.” Sometimes that’s all you need.
Stay sharp out there.
