I stood in the chilly pre-dawn darkness last Friday, coffee in hand, watching a line of cars snake toward the outlet mall like it was 2019 all over again. For months we’d been hearing the warnings – lower-income households tapped out, confidence tanking, revenge spending finally over. Yet here we were, Black Friday 2025, and the parking lots were filling up faster than I expected.
Turns out I wasn’t imagining things. The first batch of hard data is in, and the picture is surprisingly resilient.
A Better-Than-Feared Kickoff to the Holiday Season
Let’s be honest – heading into Thanksgiving week, the mood among analysts was cautious at best. Weeks of soft confidence readings, stubborn inflation prints, and endless chatter about a “K-shaped” consumer had everyone bracing for a muted start. Some were even whispering the R-word again. But when the registers finally closed on Black Friday, the numbers told a different story.
Early reads show American shoppers showed up – both literally and figuratively – in greater force than most Wall Street desks had modeled. Not boom-times crazy, but solid enough to breathe some relief into retail boardrooms and, quietly, into economic policy circles too.
The Headline Numbers That Caught Everyone Off Guard
Here’s the snapshot that’s making the rounds in trading floors this Monday morning:
- Total retail sales (excluding autos) rose 4.1% year-over-year on Black Friday alone – well ahead of last year’s 3.4% and even beating the full-season forecast of 3.6%.
- In-store sales grew a modest but positive 1.7%, proving physical retail isn’t dead yet.
- Online sales absolutely surged 10.4% – continuing the pandemic-era shift but at levels nobody was brave enough to predict two weeks ago.
- Overall e-commerce on Black Friday climbed roughly 9%, slightly below last year’s double-digit pace but still above most revised estimates.
Those aren’t earth-shattering figures, but in the context of recent sentiment they feel almost buoyant.
Where the Money Actually Flowed
Dig category by category and the story gets more interesting.
Apparel led the pack with mid-single-digit gains – helped along by an honest-to-goodness cold snap across much of the country right on cue. Jewelry held steady, beauty products flew off shelves (especially in mall specialty stores), and even handbags – yes, handbags – showed signs of life again after what felt like an eternity in the wilderness.
Toys and kids’ clothing saw heavy foot traffic too, which makes sense: parents will move mountains to keep Christmas morning magical, even if they’re cutting back everywhere else.
“Events still matter. People still want the thrill of the deal and the shared experience of the kickoff weekend.”
– A sentiment echoed across analyst notes this morning
The Online vs. In-Store Split Keeps Widening
One trend that hasn’t budged: bricks-and-mortar traffic remains soft compared to digital channels. Preliminary foot-traffic data showed a decline of roughly 2-5% year-over-year depending on whose sensors you trust. Friday itself looked decent; Saturday apparently got weird in the Midwest and dragged the two-day average down.
But here’s the thing – fewer bodies in stores didn’t translate to fewer dollars. Higher average tickets and a willingness to pay for convenience online more than made up the difference for most chains.
In my view, this is the new normal. The pandemic didn’t kill physical retail; it just accelerated a bifurcation that was already underway. People still crave the tactile, social experience for certain categories (think beauty testers, trying on coats, or picking the perfect gift in person), but for everything else the couch and a credit card win.
The “K-Shaped” Consumer in One Weekend
Perhaps the most intriguing sub-plot is how Black Friday itself works as a litmus test for different income cohorts.
The very top earners – the ones who never really stopped spending – tend to sit out the door-buster chaos. Their holiday shopping looks more like a leisurely November visit to a luxury boutique than a 4 a.m. camp-out for a discounted TV. So when Black Friday holds up, it’s actually a decent proxy for how the mass market is feeling, not just the elite.
And the mass market, at least for one weekend, looked okay.
That doesn’t mean the lower-income squeeze has magically vanished. Far from it. Discount depth was aggressive again this year, and value players like off-price chains and big-box warehouse clubs reportedly did land-office business. But the fact that transaction counts didn’t collapse is meaningful.
What Retailers Themselves Are Saying
Store checks over the weekend painted a picture of cautious optimism. Traffic at traditional big-draw destinations was described as “in line to slightly better” than 2024. Beauty specialty, athletic stores, and certain mall anchors apparently cleaned up. Home goods, on the other hand, remained quiet – further proof that discretionary furniture and décor purchases are still on ice for many households.
One anecdote that stuck with me: multiple reports of younger shoppers – Gen Z and younger millennials – showing up in force for fashion and beauty deals. Maybe student loans got deferred again, maybe side-hustle money is flowing, or maybe they’re just determined to treat themselves after years of watching older cohorts have all the fun. Whatever the reason, their presence was noted and welcomed by retailers.
The Luxury Surprise
Here’s a subplot few saw coming: early signs that aspirational luxury might be waking up.
Quiet commentary from the high end suggests domestic spending has improved sequentially this quarter. Add in a Chinese luxury market that’s finally stabilizing (jewelry and cosmetics leading the way, Macau gaming numbers hitting post-pandemic highs), and suddenly the narrative of endless luxury gloom looks premature.
Black Friday isn’t a perfect read for $5,000 handbags, granted. But when accessible-luxury and premium contemporary brands report strong weekends, it’s a straw in the wind worth watching.
Caution Flags Still Flying
Before we get carried away, a reality check.
One decent weekend does not a holiday season make. Analysts are quick to remind us that consumers have trained themselves to concentrate spending around these promotional “events” and then go quiet until the next one. December still has a lot of work to do – some chains generate nearly half their quarter in the final three weeks.
Promotions were deep again this year, and margins will reflect that. Shrinking shrink, growing retail-media revenue, and marketplace fees are helping offset some of the pain, but it’s not free money.
And underneath the aggregate resilience, the income split continues to widen. Value and discount channels are taking share from traditional department stores and mid-tier players. That structural shift isn’t reversing anytime soon.
What Happens Next
Cyber Monday numbers will land later today and give us the next data point. Then we watch the two weeks leading into Christmas like hawks – that’s when the real stress test arrives.
For now, though, the narrative has flipped from “uh-oh” to “maybe we dodge the worst of it.” Markets seem to agree – retail stocks are perking up, department store bonds are a touch tighter, and the macro crowd has quietly pushed back recession calls another quarter.
Maybe the consumer really is more resilient than the surveys suggest. Or maybe we just needed one cold weekend and a pile of doorbusters to remind everyone what holiday spirit feels like.
Either way, Black Friday 2025 is in the books – and for the first time in a while, it left more smiles than frowns.
