Have you ever watched a stock get absolutely crushed for years, only to suddenly show signs of life right when everyone had written it off?
That’s exactly what’s happening with one of America’s biggest discount retailers right now, and some of the sharpest eyes on Wall Street are starting to take notice.
I’ve been around markets long enough to know that the best opportunities often hide in the places most people have already given up on. And this week, one name in particular has caught the attention of traders who actually make their living on the floor.
The Retail Comeback Nobody Saw Coming
Let’s be honest — the discount retail space has been a disaster for a while. Inflation crushed margins, consumers traded down but not enough to offset rising costs, and investors ran for the hills.
But something interesting is happening beneath the surface.
One major player that’s down more than 60% from its all-time highs is quietly putting in higher lows. The chart is starting to look like those classic turnaround setups we used to see before big multi-month runs.
And this week, we’re about to find out if the story is real.
Why Dollar General Could Be the Surprise of the Week
Thursday morning brings earnings from Dollar General, and the setup couldn’t be more fascinating.
The stock has been in a clear near-term uptrend for weeks now. More importantly, it’s approaching a major resistance level that’s held it back multiple times before.
“It is now in a near-term uptrend with room to run. Let’s see if they can get back above $115 — it’s got room to run if it does.”
– Veteran NYSE market strategist
Here’s what makes this so compelling: if management delivers even a decent report and the stock clears $115 convincingly, the technical picture changes dramatically. We’re talking about a potential 20-30% move in relatively short order.
But here’s the other side — and this is where experience really matters.
If the earnings disappoint and the stock breaks below $98, that entire turnaround thesis falls apart. That $98 level has acted as strong support multiple times this year. Lose it, and we’re probably looking at new lows.
In my view, this is exactly the kind of high-conviction setup professional traders live for — clear levels, clear catalysts, and asymmetric risk/reward.
Salesforce: Make or Break Moment
While the retail story grabs headlines, there’s another heavyweight reporting this week that deserves serious attention.
Salesforce heads into Wednesday’s numbers down roughly 30% year-to-date. That alone should tell you something — this isn’t some speculative small-cap. This is a cornerstone name in enterprise software.
The stock is sitting right on a level that’s held three separate times this year. You don’t need to be a technical genius to see how important this zone is.
- Break below $230 → likely accelerates toward $200 and potentially lower
- Hold and bounce → could mark the bottom of this entire correction
I’ve watched these exact setups play out dozens of times. When a quality name gets this oversold into major support ahead of earnings, the reactions tend to be explosive in either direction.
The safe money is probably waiting for the print, but the aggressive money is already positioning.
The Cybersecurity Sweepstakes
If there’s one sector that’s remained resilient through all the market noise this year, it’s cybersecurity.
This week brings a flood of reports from some of the biggest names in the space:
- MongoDB
- Snowflake (yes, they play in the data security world too)
- Crowdstrike
- Rubrik
Here’s what I find most interesting — despite the broader tech weakness, money continues rotating into these names. When growth gets scarce, investors pay up for companies with real moats and recurring revenue.
Cybersecurity checks both those boxes in a big way.
The reports this week will tell us whether that rotation has legs going into 2026.
Reading the Market Tea Leaves
Stepping back, the broader market setup is actually pretty constructive.
The S&P 500 sits less than 2% from all-time highs as we head into December. Historically, when we grind this close to records this late in the year, we tend to push through rather than roll over.
We’ve got a light economic calendar this week — just enough data to keep traders engaged, but not enough to derail the Santa rally narrative.
And perhaps most importantly, the Fed meeting is still two weeks away. Markets are pricing in a cut with near certainty. The only question is the messaging.
All of this creates a pretty favorable backdrop for individual stock picking.
How I’m Thinking About Positioning
Look, I’m not here to give financial advice — everyone’s risk tolerance is different.
But if I were trading my own book this week, here’s how I’d approach it:
- Dollar General is the highest conviction idea — watching for a breakout above $115 post-earnings with a stop below $98
- Staying away from Salesforce until we see which way it breaks the $230 level
- Keeping the cybersecurity names on a watchlist — any weakness could be buyable if the growth stories remain intact
- Staying nimble overall — this is a holiday-shortened week and liquidity can get weird
The beauty of weeks like this is that you don’t need to swing for the fences. Just a couple good trades can make your month.
And sometimes, the best trades are the ones everyone else has already forgotten about.
Keep your eyes on that discount retailer. Sometimes the ugliest ducklings make the most beautiful swans.
(Note: All trading involves risk. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Do your own research before making any investment decisions.)
