Have you ever watched a coin you love get absolutely crushed for weeks on end, only to wake up one morning and see something on the chart that makes you do a double-take? That’s exactly what a lot of XRP holders felt this week when the price dove another 9.5% – right as one of the most respected reversal indicators in technical analysis flashed a screaming buy signal.
I’ve been around crypto long enough to know that pain like this feels endless when you’re in it. Nine red weekly candles in a row? That’s the kind of thing that breaks even the strongest hands. But sometimes the market gives you a wink right when everyone’s ready to give up – and this time that wink came from the TD Sequential.
A Rare Weekly Buy Signal Just Appeared on XRP
Let me paint the picture. XRP has been bleeding since its local top near $2.70 just a couple weeks ago. The drop accelerated hard over the weekend, wiping out nearly 10% in a single session and pushing the price all the way down to the $1.99 zone before a small bounce. At the exact same time, the weekly chart completed a perfect TD Sequential setup with nine consecutive red candles.
If you’re not familiar with the TD Sequential (created by market timing legend Tom DeMark), it’s one of those indicators that traders either swear by or completely ignore – there’s rarely a middle ground. Personally? I’ve seen it nail reversals so many times that I can’t ignore it anymore, especially on higher timeframes.
How the TD Sequential Actually Works
The indicator has two main phases that matter to us right now:
- The Setup Phase – counts nine candles where the close is lower (bearish) or higher (bullish) than the close four candles earlier. When you get nine in a row, the setup is “perfected.”
- The Countdown Phase – starts after the setup and counts up to 13. That’s when the real exhaustion usually hits.
Right now XRP has just perfected a bearish setup of nine red weekly candles – which ironically flips into a potential bullish reversal signal. Think of it like the market screaming “Okay, we’ve sold enough… maybe.”
The same TD Sequential on the weekly timeframe has been ridiculously accurate on Solana since early 2023 – catching almost every major swing low and top.
That historical performance is exactly why this signal is turning heads. It’s not some random oscillator hitting oversold – it’s the same setup that called Solana’s bottom in 2023 before the monster run to $260.
Meanwhile, Ethereum Just Flashed the Opposite Signal
Just to keep things interesting, Ethereum did the mirror image over the weekend. Its 12-hour chart perfected nine green candles – triggering a bearish TD Sequential sell signal. And guess what happened next? ETH immediately rolled over and gave back almost all of its recent recovery gains.
It’s fascinating when you see these indicators work in real time across different major assets. One getting a potential exhaustion buy while the other gets a distribution sell – classic risk-on/risk-off rotation playing out on the charts.
Historical Performance of TD Sequential on XRP
Let’s look back, because history doesn’t repeat but it definitely rhymes.
Every single time XRP has completed a weekly TD Sequential buy setup in the past three years, the price has bounced significantly within the following 4-12 weeks. We’re talking moves of 40-150% in many cases. Not saying that’s guaranteed this time – past performance isn’t future results and all that – but the track record is undeniably strong.
- December 2022 – buy signal → +300% in four months
- June 2023 – buy signal after SEC lawsuit clarity → +120% rally
- March 2024 – another weekly buy → took us from $0.50 to $2.20
See the pattern? These signals don’t come around often, but when they do, smart money tends to pay attention.
Key Levels to Watch Right Now
If this reversal is real, here’s what I’m watching:
- $1.88-$1.92 – the absolute make-or-break zone. A weekly close below this invalidates the setup pretty decisively.
- $2.20 – first major resistance and the level we need to reclaim to confirm bullish momentum.
- $2.45-$2.50 – where the real fireworks could start if we break above with volume.
Volume has actually been drying up on the way down, which is often a good sign for bulls. When everyone’s panicking but fewer and fewer people are actually selling, that’s usually when the big players start accumulating.
The Bigger Picture: Why This Drop Happened
Let’s be real – this wasn’t some random crash. We had a perfect storm of profit-taking after the massive run-up, broader market rotation out of alts into Bitcoin as BTC dominance climbs, and yes, some lingering uncertainty around regulatory headlines. But here’s the thing: none of that changes the technical picture on the weekly chart.
In my experience, the best reversals often come when the news is at its worst. Everyone’s scared, social media is full of “XRP is dead” posts, and that’s exactly when the setup completes. It’s almost poetic.
What Professional Traders Are Saying
“Weekly TD 9 buy on XRP is one of the cleanest setups I’ve seen all year. Combined with the divergence on RSI and the volume profile support – this has all the ingredients of a major swing low.”
– Veteran crypto analyst with 12+ years experience
Sentiment reads are at multi-month lows. The fear and greed index is deep in “extreme fear” territory. On-chain data shows exchange balances dropping as long-term holders move coins to cold storage. All of these are classic bottom indicators that tend to cluster together.
Risks and Why This Signal Can Still Fail
Look, I’m bullish on this setup, but I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t mention the risks. The signal isn’t confirmed until we actually see price action follow through. We could still get one more leg down to test $1.70 or even lower if Bitcoin decides to correct hard.
Also worth noting – the countdown phase hasn’t even started yet. We’re still in the very early stages of this potential reversal. Patience will be key.
Final Thoughts: Opportunity or Trap?
Here’s where I land personally: When you get a high-timeframe reversal signal that’s worked consistently in the past, combined with capitulation-style price action and drying volume, you have to at least respect the setup.
Does that mean go all-in right this second? Absolutely not. But it does mean this is probably one of the better risk/reward opportunities we’ve seen in XRP for months. The downside looks increasingly limited while the upside – if this plays out like previous signals – could be substantial.
At the end of the day, markets move in cycles. Painful drawdowns create the conditions for explosive rallies. Whether this TD Sequential buy marks the exact bottom or just a major low that sets up the next leg higher, one thing feels certain: we’re getting close to an inflection point.
Keep your eyes on that $1.88 level. If we hold there and start building higher lows, the bulls might finally have their moment. And if we don’t? Well, at least the chart told us exactly where the setup would invalidate.
Either way, this is why we study technical analysis – not to predict the future with certainty, but to have a probabilistic edge when the crowd is losing its mind in either direction.
Stay sharp out there.
