Remember that sickening feeling when an altcoin you love keeps grinding lower, week after week, with no end in sight? I’ve been there more times than I care to admit. Right now Sui is giving a lot of us that exact sensation – but something interesting just showed up on the chart that made me stop mid-scroll and zoom in.
The price has quietly carved out what looks like a textbook double bottom right around $1.32. And honestly? It’s one of the cleanest reversal patterns I’ve seen in the layer-1 space all year.
A Classic Reversal Pattern Is Taking Shape
Let me paint the picture for you.
For most of the past six weeks Sui has been in a brutal downtrend – lower highs, lower lows, the kind of price action that makes even the most stubborn HODLer start to sweat. Every bounce felt weaker than the last, volume was drying up on the way up, and bears were having a field day.
Then, almost like someone flipped a switch, price kissed $1.32, bounced, came back for a second kiss (this time with even higher volume), and now it’s grinding sideways while building energy. That, my friends, is how most meaningful bottoms look before they reverse.
Why Double Bottoms Actually Work
I know, I know – “classic patterns” get thrown around like confetti on Crypto Twitter and half the time they fail spectacularly. But double bottoms have a special place in my playbook for one simple reason: they show the market has tested a level twice and the second test usually exhausts the last weak hands.
First touch – panic sellers dump. Second touch – the ones who regretted not selling the first time finally capitulate. After that? There’s often no one left to sell, and any new buying pressure sends price screaming higher.
We saw it with Solana at $8 in 2022, with Avalanche at $12, with Polygon at $0.31… I could go on. When the broader market isn’t completely dead, these patterns have a scary high hit rate.
- First low: $1.31 (panic capitulation)
- Second low: $1.32 (slightly higher – bullish divergence on RSI)
- Current price sitting right in the middle, coiling
The Make-or-Break Level Everyone Is Watching
Here’s the part that actually matters: the neckline.
For this double bottom to be confirmed, Sui needs to clear roughly $1.66 on decent volume. That level isn’t random – it’s where a nasty bearish order block lives and where the downtrend line comes in. It’s also the exact area that rejected price three separate times on the way down.
Think of it like a ceiling that’s been reinforced with concrete. Break it, and the path to $2.19 opens up almost immediately because there’s very little resistance above until the previous swing high.
In trading, the most powerful moves often come when everyone is positioned the wrong way. Right now short interest on Sui perpetuals is still elevated – a confirmed breakout would be pure fuel.
What a Confirmed Breakout Would Look Like
Close above $1.66 on the daily or weekly candle? Game on.
I’m not talking about some weak 2% poke above and reverse. I mean a convincing close with expanding volume and preferably a retest that holds as support. That’s when the real fun begins.
Measured move from a double bottom is pretty straightforward: take the height from the lows to the neckline and add it to the breakout point. In this case we’re looking at roughly 35-40% upside from $1.66 just on the pattern target alone – that puts $2.19-$2.30 in play faster than most people expect.
And if Bitcoin stays constructive (which it has been lately), altcoins like Sui can absolutely run 100%+ in a few weeks. We’ve seen it before and we’ll see it again.
The Bear Case Nobody Wants to Talk About
Look, I’m bullish here, but I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t mention the other side.
If $1.32 cracks – and especially if it cracks hard on heavy volume – the pattern is invalidated and the next major support doesn’t show up until the $0.90-$1.00 zone. That’s another 30% downside from current levels and would probably drag most layer-1 tokens with it.
Personally? I think the probability of that happening has dropped sharply after the second test held with increasing volume, but markets love to humble anyone who gets too confident.
Fundamental Tailwinds Quietly Building
Charts don’t move in a vacuum, and Sui actually has some interesting things cooking under the hood that most people seem to be sleeping on.
The Mysticeti consensus upgrade went live recently and transaction finality is now stupidly fast – we’re talking sub-second in many cases. That matters when you’re competing with Solana for DeFi mindshare.
They also just rolled out USDsui, their native stablecoin. Yeah, another stablecoin launch usually gets an eye roll from me too, but on-chain commerce actually needs solid rails and having a tightly integrated one can be a bigger deal than people give credit for.
TVL has been climbing steadily even through the price dump, which tells you smart money has been accumulating while retail was panicking. That divergence between price and fundamentals is usually resolved in favor of… well, the fundamentals eventually.
How I’m Playing It (If You Care)
Full disclosure – I’ve been adding small chunks every time price touches that $1.32 zone. My average is somewhere in the mid-1.40s right now.
Plan is simple:
- Hold core position if we stay above $1.32
- Add aggressively on a weekly close above $1.66
- Initial target $2.19, then reassess
- Stop loss below $1.25 if things somehow go completely pear-shaped
Risk-reward feels ridiculously skewed here. Even if I’m wrong and we eventually sweep the lows, the downside from current levels is maybe 25-30%. Upside if this pattern plays out the way most do? Easily 80-150% in the coming months.
I’ll take those odds all day long.
At the end of the day, nobody has a crystal ball – not me, not the “experts” on Twitter, nobody. But when you get a clean technical setup like this double bottom, combined with improving fundamentals and a Bitcoin chart that refuses to die, sometimes the smartest thing to do is stop overthinking and just respect what the market is showing you.
Sui looks ready to remind people why it was one of the hottest layer-1 launches of the last cycle. The question is whether you’ll be watching from the sidelines when it happens… or positioning before the crowd wakes up.
Either way, $1.66 is the line in the sand now. Clear it, and we probably don’t look back for a while.
