Picture this: Bitcoin is ripping higher, finally blasting past $90,000 again, the entire crypto market is painted green, and every Bitcoin-related name you can think of is bouncing hard. Then you look at one ticker—American Bitcoin (ABTC)—and it’s down more than 40% in a single session. Not a typo. Forty percent. While BTC itself is up almost 8% on the day.
I had to triple-check the charts because it felt surreal. In a world where “Bitcoin treasury” stocks usually move like leveraged BTC plays, this felt like watching someone get thrown out of a speeding car while everyone else is celebrating inside. So what on earth is going on?
The Brutal Numbers Don’t Lie
Let’s start with the cold, hard facts. On December 2, 2025, American Bitcoin stock closed the day at exactly $2.00 after trading as low as $1.90 intraday. That’s an 86% wipeout from its all-time high and a market cap that has collapsed from nearly $9 billion to under $2 billion in a matter of months.
Meanwhile, the company still holds just over 4,000 BTC on its balance sheet. At today’s prices that’s roughly $365 million worth of Bitcoin—meaning the market is currently valuing the entire operating business (mining rigs, energy contracts, staff, everything else) at around $1.5 billion while the stock trades at barely above the value of its coins.
Or to put it another way: you can almost buy the company for the price of its Bitcoin and get a full-scale mining operation basically for free. That’s not how these stories usually go.
A Quick Comparison With the Rest of the Pack
On the same day ABTC was imploding:
- MicroStrategy (MSTR) +4.2%
- Trump Media & Technology Group +1%
- Marathon Digital +6%
- Riot Platforms +5%
- Even smaller treasury plays like Semler Scientific and Metaplanet were green
Every single Bitcoin-quoted Bitcoin treasury or mining company was up—except American Bitcoin. That alone should raise eyebrows.
The Trump Connection That Once Sent It Parabolic
Remember the hype? American Bitcoin was spun out of Hut 8 earlier this year and immediately got the “Trump family” halo because Eric Trump sits on the board. When Donald Trump started talking Bitcoin strategic reserve and pro-crypto policy in the run-up to the election, ABTC absolutely flew—touching almost $15 per share at one point.
That narrative premium is now completely gone. In fact, it feels like the market is punishing the stock for ever having it in the first place.
Premium to NAV: The Elephant in the Room
Here’s the metric that really matters in this niche: mNAV multiple—market cap divided by the current value of Bitcoin holdings.
Most serious Bitcoin treasury companies trade between 1.0x and 2.5x their NAV right now. MicroStrategy sits around 2.2x on a good day. Metaplanet trades below 1x, and Semler Scientific is roughly 1.3x.
American Bitcoin? Still trading at almost 5x its Bitcoin NAV even after the crash. Yes, you read that right. The market is saying the mining business is worth four times the Bitcoin it already holds. That never made sense at $10 and makes even less sense at $2.
| Company | BTC Held | BTC Value | Market Cap | mNAV Multiple |
| MicroStrategy | 252,220 | $23B | $51B | 2.2x |
| Metaplanet | 1,762 | $161M | $140M | 0.87x |
| American Bitcoin | 4,002 | $365M | $1.9B | 5.2x |
When your multiple is double or triple the next most expensive name in the sector, gravity eventually wins.
Mining vs Pure Treasury: Why the Model Matters
One argument you’ll hear from ABTC bulls is that it isn’t just a treasury play—it’s an actual operating miner. So the premium is justified by future hash rate growth, cheap power contracts, etc.
Fair point in theory. Except the latest quarterly numbers showed $64 million in revenue and only $3.4 million in net income. That’s a profit margin under 6% in the middle of the biggest Bitcoin rally in years. For context, CleanSpark and Marathon are printing 30-40% margins right now.
In other words, the mining business isn’t adding meaningful value at current energy prices and difficulty levels. It’s basically break-even or slightly profitable—hardly the growth engine needed to justify a 5x NAV multiple.
Technical Massacre: The Chart Is Ugly
If you believe markets are forward-looking (and I do), the technical picture sealed the deal.
ABTC formed a textbook double-top around $14.50 earlier this year. The neckline sat at $3.70. Once that broke in November, the measured move pointed straight to $1.50–$2.00. We’re now there.
Add in a fresh death cross (50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day) and an ADX reading pushing above 25—signaling a strong trending move—and you have the perfect recipe for panic selling.
“When a stock breaks a multi-month neckline on massive volume while the underlying asset is soaring, retail holders hit the eject button. Simple as that.”
– Veteran crypto trader on X
Was There a Specific Catalyst?
Honestly? Not that anyone can find. No SEC filing, no bankruptcy rumor, no power contract cancellation, no major holder dumping (at least nothing disclosed yet). Sometimes markets just decide a premium has gone too far and the unwind is sudden and violent.
I’ve watched this movie before—remember when Canaan (CAN) traded at 8x NAV in 2021 before collapsing 95%? Or when SOS Limited ran to a $15 billion market cap on zero Bitcoin and then went to zero? Narrative premiums in crypto stocks can evaporate overnight.
What Happens From Here?
Three scenarios feel plausible:
- Continued bleed toward $1.00–$1.50 where the stock finally trades at 1x NAV and the mining business is effectively priced at zero.
- Dead-cat bounce if Bitcoin keeps running to $100k+ and some retail FOMO returns.
- Take-private or strategic buyer steps in. At under 2x NAV for a fleet of modern miners and power contracts, someone could make a compelling bid.
My money is on door number one for now. The technical damage is severe, the premium compression trade still has room to run, and sentiment is ice-cold.
That said, if Bitcoin does hit $150,000 in this cycle (as some very smart people believe), even a broken treasury stock can rip higher on pure beta. Just don’t confuse that with the company suddenly being “fixed.”
The bigger lesson here? In crypto, narrative is everything—until it isn’t. American Bitcoin rode the Trump + Bitcoin reserve wave perfectly on the way up. On the way down, that same narrative became a millstone.
Sometimes the market prices disconnect from reality for months. Eventually, though, reality wins. And when it does, it doesn’t ring a bell—it just drops 40% while the asset you own is making new highs.
Welcome to Bitcoin treasury investing in 2025.
