Remember that gut-wrenching feeling when Bitcoin sliced through $100k like it was nothing, only to give back a quick 30% a few weeks later? Yeah, me too. Social media turned into a bloodbath of “told you so” posts and paper-hand confessions. But here’s the thing—I’ve watched this movie before, and it almost always ends the same way.
A new in-depth report just dropped that basically tells everyone to relax. These kinds of drawdowns aren’t the start of some multi-year crypto winter; they’re actually standard operating procedure in every major bull market Bitcoin has ever had. And more importantly, the people writing it still see brand-new all-time highs coming in 2026.
Why a 30% Drop Feels Scary But Isn’t New
Let’s be brutally honest—30% drops hurt. Your portfolio looks like it got run over, and suddenly every crypto Twitter philosopher has a bearish chart from 2018 ready to go. But when you zoom out far enough, this is just Tuesday in Bitcoin land.
Since 2010, Bitcoin has experienced roughly fifty corrections of 10% or greater. The average depth? Right around 30%. Some were quick two-week shakeouts, others dragged on for months. Yet every single meaningful one eventually became nothing more than a lower high on the next leg up.
“Investors who managed to hold through the pain have historically been rewarded handsomely. The tough drawdowns are simply the price of admission.”
That’s the core message coming from one of the largest digital asset managers on the planet. Their research team counted nine significant pullbacks since the current cycle began after the 2022 lows. Number nine just happened to be the deepest so far at 32%. In other words, we’re following the script almost perfectly.
This Cycle Looks Different (In a Good Way)
One of the biggest fears floating around right now is the dreaded “four-year cycle” theory—that because Bitcoin halvings happen every four years, we’re supposedly due for a massive top followed by an 80%+ crash sometime in 2026.
Analysts are pushing back hard on that narrative this time around, and for good reason. A few things really do feel different:
- No insane parabolic blow-off top yet (think 2017 or 2021 mania)
- Heavy institutional involvement through exchange-traded products
- Corporations adding Bitcoin to balance sheets at scale
- Macro environment shifting toward lower rates and weaker dollar
Those factors combined create a much more mature market structure than we’ve ever seen at this stage of a bull run. Parabolic retail euphoria simply hasn’t shown up in the data the way it has in previous cycles.
Signs a Local Bottom Might Be Close
Beyond historical precedent, there are a handful of on-chain and options-market signals that suggest the worst of the selling could be behind us.
Put options are trading at extreme premiums, which usually marks periods of maximum fear. Certain Bitcoin treasury products are trading at their largest discounts to net asset value in months—classic capitulation behavior. When everyone who wanted to sell has already hit the button, there’s often not much supply left to push prices lower.
Of course, nothing moves in a straight line. We could absolutely grind sideways or even retest lower levels. But the broader setup still leans bullish for anyone with a 12–24 month horizon.
Privacy Coins Stole the Show in November
While Bitcoin and most large-caps bled throughout November, one corner of the market quietly went parabolic: privacy-focused tokens.
Coins like Monero and Zcash led the entire crypto leaderboard for weekly gains multiple times. Part of that strength came from genuine product momentum—new privacy layers on Ethereum, cross-chain automation tools making private transactions easier than ever, and growing regulatory scrutiny ironically driving demand for actual privacy.
It’s fascinating how the worse the surveillance conversation gets, the more valuable true privacy becomes. These projects aren’t just meme pumps; they’re solving a problem that’s only becoming more acute.
Meanwhile, AI Tokens Got Crushed
On the flip side, the AI crypto sector was one of the worst performers in November, down over 25% as a group. That’s after being the undisputed leader for much of 2024.
Rotations like this happen every cycle. Money flows into whatever narrative is hottest, overshoots, then violently corrects when the next shiny thing appears. If history is any guide, many of today’s beaten-down AI projects will look ridiculously cheap twelve months from now.
The Macro Backdrop Is Turning Friendly Again
Perhaps the most under-appreciated tailwind right now is what’s happening outside of crypto entirely.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates again in December, with more easing priced in for 2026. A weaker dollar and lower yields tend to be rocket fuel for hard assets like Bitcoin and gold. We’ve seen this play out repeatedly over the past two decades.
Add in the growing likelihood of actual crypto-friendly legislation passing in the United States next year, and you have a recipe for institutional money to keep flowing in even if retail sentiment stays sour for a while.
New ETPs Keep Expanding the Pie
November also saw the first exchange-traded products for XRP and Dogecoin begin trading in certain jurisdictions. That’s a big deal. Every new ETP creates another on-ramp for traditional money that previously couldn’t touch these assets.
The infrastructure build-out never stops, even when prices are chopping sideways. By the time the next real mania phase arrives, there will be more ways than ever for institutions to gain exposure.
What Should Long-Term Holders Do Right Now?
If you’ve been in crypto for more than one cycle, you already know the answer: absolutely nothing.
The investors who win big are the ones who can sit through these periods without constantly checking prices or trying to trade every wiggle. The data is remarkably consistent—time in the market beats timing the market virtually 100% of the time when it comes to Bitcoin.
Eventually fundamentals and valuations converge. The question is whether you’re still around to see it happen.
We’re still early in the institutional adoption curve. Spot ETFs are barely a year old. Corporate treasuries are just getting started. Nation-states are debating Bitcoin reserves. All of these trends take years, not months, to fully play out.
Yes, the ride will continue to be volatile. Another 20-40% drop wouldn’t shock anyone who’s been paying attention. But the probability that we’re in the final innings of this bull market feels incredibly low given everything we know today.
So take a deep breath. Maybe touch some grass. Turn off the price alerts for a few months if you need to. The people who look back on this period a year from now and wish they’d bought more probably won’t be the ones selling today.
Because if the historical pattern holds—and there’s little reason to think it won’t—today’s pain is tomorrow’s “remember when Bitcoin was only $90k?” story.
In my experience, the best opportunities in crypto always appear when literally no one wants to hear it. When the timeline is filled with despair and the charts look broken. That’s usually right before everything changes.
We’re not there yet, but we’re getting close. And when the next leg up finally starts, it probably won’t wait for anyone still trying to find the exact bottom.
