Ever have one of those mornings where you wake up and immediately reach for your phone to see what the futures are doing? Yeah, me too. Tomorrow, Wednesday, feels like one of those days where the alarm might as well be a fire bell because there’s just so much coming at the market all at once.
We’ve got economic data dropping in rapid succession, a handful of important earnings, and even some high-level political theater with one of the most powerful CEOs in tech heading to Washington. In short, if you trade for a living or just like to stay ahead of where your money is going, you’ll want to be glued to the screen from about 6 a.m. Eastern onward.
Why Wednesday Suddenly Feels Like the New Friday
Look, the first couple of days this week have been relatively quiet on the macro front. Sure, we’ve seen some sector rotation and the usual end-of-month window dressing, but nothing that really jerked the market around. That changes tomorrow. Three major data points hit before 10 a.m., two retail earnings at the open, a mega-cap tech report after the close, and a side of geopolitical tech tension for dessert. Buckle up.
The Data Avalanche Starts Early
Let’s start with the macro calendar because that’s going to set the tone for everything else.
At 8:15 a.m. ET we get the ADP private payrolls number. Consensus is looking for something around +140,000 (I’ve seen estimates ranging from 120k to 165k, but 140k seems to be the middle). Anything much softer than that and people will immediately start pricing in more aggressive Fed cuts for 2026. Anything hotter and the “no landing” crowd gets another shot of adrenaline.
Then at 9:15 comes industrial production and capacity utilization—honestly a second-tier report these days, but still watched closely by the manufacturing bulls and bears.
The main event, though, lands at 10:00 a.m.: the ISM services PMI. This is the big one. The services side of the economy has been the resilient piece all year. Last month printed 51.3 if memory serves, and the Street is looking for something similar tomorrow—maybe 51.5 or 51.8. A drop below 50 would be a legitimate shock and probably send rate-cut odds spiking.
In my experience, the market can shrug off one soft data point, but when you get a cluster—especially if services roll over—that’s when the real anxiety creeps in.
Rates Watch: Where the Bond Market Closed Tuesday
Just so we have the levels in our head going into the data:
- 10-year Treasury yield closed around 4.09%
- 2-year at 3.51%—that’s a pretty steep curve already
- 3-month T-bill 3.79%, 1-month 3.85%—short end still inverted
- High-yield corporate spreads remain remarkably calm
If the data comes in soft, I’d watch the 10-year for a quick move toward 4.00% or lower. If it surprises hot, 4.20% comes back into play fast.
Retail Earns the Spotlight: Macy’s and Dollar Tree
Two very different stories in retail report before the bell.
Macy’s first. The stock has been on an absolute tear—up nearly 70% in the last three months alone and brushing 52-week highs. Holiday footing, potential takeover chatter, short squeeze dynamics—whatever the reason, momentum has been brutal. Tomorrow we see if the numbers justify any of it. Same-store sales trends and margin guidance for the all-important fourth quarter will be the two numbers everyone circles in red.
Then there’s Dollar Tree. Completely opposite chart. The stock has basically gone nowhere since its last report and sits almost 8% below its summer peak. The discount retailer space remains hyper-competitive, and investors want to hear that the higher-income customer walking through the door is still spending. Traffic and ticket will be scrutinized heavily.
One quick thought I can’t shake: if Macy’s smashes and Dollar Tree struggles, that actually tells a reasonably upbeat story about the consumer—higher-end discretionary holding up while the dollar-store trade softens a bit. If both miss? Different conversation entirely.
Salesforce: The After-the-Close Main Event
Saving the biggest for last—Salesforce (CRM) reports after the close.
The stock is down roughly 7% since its last print three months ago and sits almost 30% below where it traded this time last year. Guidance is going to be everything here. The Street wants to hear that AI monetization (Agentforce, Einstein, Data Cloud, etc.) is finally starting to move the needle in a material way. Billings growth, remaining performance obligations, and any commentary around 2026 operating margins will drive the bus.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect is valuation. The stock has de-rated pretty hard, and a lot of investors I talk to think it’s finally back in “show me” territory rather than “story stock” territory. Beat and raise convincingly, and you could see a 10-15% gap higher Thursday morning. Miss on guidance and… well, let’s just say the after-hours reaction will be swift.
The AI Wars Are Getting Real (Again)
Can we talk about the fact that we’re somehow back in a full-blown AI arms race narrative in December 2025? It feels like 2023 all over again.
The chatter around Google’s Gemini catching up has put Alphabet on the defensive, even though the stock is still up 67% year-to-date and has dramatically outperformed the other Magnificent Seven names. Amazon, Tesla, Microsoft, Apple, Meta—most are up single digits to mid-teens this year. Alphabet and Nvidia are the two clear standouts.
Speaking of Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang heads to Capitol Hill tomorrow to meet with Senate Republicans. The headline risk around China export curbs is obvious. Any hint that restrictions might loosen (or tighten further) will move the stock instantly. Nvidia shares are still 14.5% off their late-October high, but they’ve more than doubled from the April lows and remain up 35% on the year. Volatility is baked in.
Chip Sector Heating Up Fast
While we’re on semis, the entire complex has been on fire lately. The SOXX ETF is up almost 7% just this past week. Intel—yes, Intel—led everything with a 21% sprint in five days and a fresh 52-week high. NXP and Synopsys (fresh off its Nvidia partnership announcement) aren’t far behind.
Call me crazy, but when Intel is the hottest chip stock on the board, you know something rotational is going on under the surface. Money is clearly looking for new homes inside the semi space.
What I’m Watching Personally
- How the 10-year yield reacts to the ISM services print—if we break 4.15% to the upside quickly, a lot of this week’s dip-buying in tech gets re-tested
- Salesforce guidance on Agentforce adoption—needs to be concrete, not “it’s early but promising”
- Any commentary from Nvidia’s Hill visit leaked in real time (Twitter will be wild)
- Whether Macy’s can keep the momentum trade alive or if this is peak euphoria
- Breadth—if the equal-weight S&P can hold its 200-day moving average while the cap-weighted index makes new highs, I sleep better
Bottom line? Tomorrow isn’t just another day. It’s one of those sessions where the close could look dramatically different from the open, and the narrative heading into year-end could shift on a dime.
I’ll be up early, coffee in hand, watching every tick. Hope to see you there.
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