Have you ever watched a coin sit just below a stubborn price level for what feels like forever, teasing everyone with tiny green candles, only to suddenly explode higher when nobody expects it anymore? That’s exactly the vibe XRP is giving off right now.
I’ve been staring at Ripple charts for years, and I’m not going to lie – the last couple of months have been frustrating. But something changed this week. The price quietly reclaimed some very important moving averages, the momentum indicators flipped, and suddenly the entire structure looks different. Let me walk you through exactly what I’m seeing, because this could be one of those moments people look back on and say “yeah, that was the bottom before the real move.”
XRP Just Did Something It Hasn’t Done in Months
Let’s start with the most obvious thing staring us in the face on the daily chart. XRP has climbed back above its 9-day EMA and, more importantly, the gap between the 9-day and 20-day EMAs has started to narrow dramatically. When these two lines squeeze together like this after a downtrend, it’s usually the calm before the storm.
Why does this matter? Because for the past several weeks, price was trading underneath both of these short-term averages – classic bearish posture. Now the roles have reversed. Price is on top, and those EMAs are starting to curl upward. That’s textbook reversal behavior.
MACD Just Flipped – And It’s Expanding Fast
Remember when the MACD histogram was a sea of red bars getting wider every day? Yeah, that’s gone. We now have consecutive green bars, and they’re getting taller. The signal line crossover happened days ago, but what really caught my eye is the speed at which the histogram is expanding.
In my experience, when you see this kind of acceleration right after a crossover, it usually means the move has legs. Slow grinds higher after a flip can fizzle out. Fast expansion like this? That’s fuel.
The difference between a fake-out and the real deal often comes down to momentum acceleration. Right now XRP is showing exactly that.
RSI Is No Longer Bleeding
The Relative Strength Index spent weeks stuck in the low 40s – not oversold enough to scream “buy,” but definitely weak. Over the last five days it has climbed back above 50 and is pointing higher. We’re not overbought yet, which actually leaves plenty of room to run if buyers step in.
I like where we are on RSI because it tells me the selling pressure that dominated November has genuinely eased. This isn’t just a dead-cat bounce in an ongoing downtrend. The character of the price action has changed.
The Big Question: Can Volume Confirm the Move?
Here’s where things get interesting – and honestly a little nerve-wracking. All these pretty indicator signals mean nothing if nobody shows up to trade. The breakout above $2.20 needs real volume, not the pathetic candles we saw during the last fake-out in early November.
So far volume is… okay. Not explosive, but definitely higher than the doldrums we saw mid-month. If we can see a day where volume spikes 2-3x the 30-day average on a close above $2.22, I’ll be a lot more confident shouting “all clear.” Until then, I’m keeping some dry powder on the sidelines.
Those Order-Book Walls Are Real
Anybody who trades XRP knows the order book can look like a war zone. Right now there are several thick ask walls sitting between $2.21 and $2.28. These aren’t random numbers – they’re exactly where a lot of leveraged long positions got wrecked on the way down, so people are happily selling into strength.
- First wall around $2.22 – roughly 8 million XRP
- Second cluster near $2.25 – another 12-15 million
- Biggest stack shows up around $2.28 – easily 20+ million
The good news? Liquidity above $2.30 is surprisingly thin. If buyers can eat through those walls with conviction, the path higher opens up fast. I’ve seen XRP gap $0.50 in a single day when the book flips like that. It’s rare, but it happens.
Support Levels I’m Watching Closely
On the flip side, losing the zone between $2.08 and $2.12 would be a serious red flag. That’s where we have multiple bid stacks and the 50-day EMA lurking. A daily close below there probably means we’re going back to test $1.90 – and nobody wants to see that movie again.
Thankfully the bid side still looks healthy. There’s real money sitting underneath ready to defend. That’s another reason I’m leaning bullish here – the downside feels protected while the upside has catalysts.
What Could Actually Trigger the Breakout?
Beyond pure technicals, there are a few things that could light the fuse:
- Any positive headline around the SEC case resolution (yes, still)
- Bitcoin stabilizing or pushing new highs – XRP tends to follow BTC with a lag
- Institutional volume picking up on regulated exchanges
- Whales finally rotating out of BTC and ETH profit-taking into large-cap alts
We don’t need all of them. Just one or two would probably be enough to overwhelm those ask walls.
My Personal Take on XRP Right Now
Look, I’ve been burned by XRP false breakouts before. I still have PTSD from 2021 when we tagged $1.90 and then round-tripped all the way back to $0.30. So I’m not blindly jumping in with both feet.
That said, the current setup is legitimately one of the cleaner ones I’ve seen in a long time. Everything is lining up the way you want it to when you’re looking for a trend reversal. The only thing missing is that explosive volume day.
If I had to put money on it today, I’d say we see $2.50 before we see $1.80 again. But I’m watching that $2.20–$2.22 zone like a hawk. Clear it with volume and I’m adding aggressively. Fail again and I’ll wait for a better entry lower.
Either way, XRP is finally interesting again. And in this market, that’s half the battle.
Disclosure: I currently hold a position in XRP. This is not financial advice – always do your own research and never risk money you can’t afford to lose.
