Picture this: you’re trying to challenge the undisputed heavyweight champion of a brand-new industry, you’ve got government backing, a merger that made headlines, and still… one phone call from a major investor can send your stock tumbling 7% before breakfast.
That’s exactly what happened to Eutelsat this week, and honestly, it feels like a gut punch for anyone who believed Europe finally had a credible answer to Elon Musk’s Starlink juggernaut.
A Brutal Morning for Europe’s Satellite Champion
When the market opened on Wednesday, something ugly was already brewing. By mid-morning London time, shares in the French satellite operator were down more than 7%, wiping out hundreds of millions in market value in the blink of an eye.
The trigger? Word got out that SoftBank – one of the biggest early believers in the whole “beat Starlink at its own game” dream – had quietly offloaded roughly half its stake. We’re talking 26 million shares hitting the market through an accelerated sale of rights. Ouch.
I’ve followed the satellite broadband space for years, and I can’t remember the last time a single investor move caused this kind of immediate bloodbath. It tells you everything about how fragile confidence has become in the non-Starlink camp.
From Hero to Zero: The Wild Ride of 2025
Let’s rewind a bit, because the story is actually crazier than it looks on the surface.
Back in early March, Eutelsat shares skyrocketed more than 600% in a matter of weeks. Yes, you read that right. The catalyst? Panic across Europe as traditional transatlantic security guarantees suddenly looked shaky. Governments and institutions rushed toward anything that screamed “strategic autonomy” – and satellite internet topped the list.
Suddenly, Eutelsat wasn’t just another telecom stock. It became the symbol of European technological sovereignty. The French state even stepped in with a massive €1.35 billion investment, taking a 30% stake and sending a clear message: we’re not letting America own the new internet infrastructure.
Fast forward nine months and that same stock has surrendered more than 70% from its peak. Wednesday’s drop was just another chapter in what increasingly feels like a tragic Greek drama.
The Numbers Don’t Lie – And They’re Brutal
Here’s the reality check that nobody in Paris wants to hear:
- Starlink: >6,750 satellites in orbit and launching 60+ per week
- Eutelsat/OneWeb: roughly 600 satellites (and growing much slower)
- Starlink: serving millions of customers across 100+ countries
- OneWeb: still mostly enterprise and government contracts
- Starlink: profitable and cash-flow positive
- Eutelsat: burning cash and guiding for more pain ahead
I’ve looked at both companies’ numbers side by side, and the gap isn’t just big – it’s galactic. Starlink isn’t playing the same game; they’re playing in a different league, on a different planet.
Why SoftBank’s Move Actually Makes Perfect Sense
Look, I’m not here to defend SoftBank’s timing – selling into weakness rarely wins style points. But from a cold-blooded investment perspective? This was probably the right call.
SoftBank first backed OneWeb when it was still an independent startup with big dreams and even bigger funding needs. They stuck around through the bankruptcy, the rescue by the UK government and Bharti, and eventually the merger with Eutelsat. That’s a lot of patience.
But here’s what changed: Starlink stopped being a promising experiment and became an unstoppable machine. Every quarter, the gap widens. Every new country approval for Starlink is another nail in the consumer-focused ambitions of competitors.
When your original investment thesis was “we can catch up” and reality proves you can’t even see the leader’s taillights anymore… it’s time to face facts.
SoftBank isn’t some sentimental charity. They’re one of the most ruthless technology investors on earth. Once the math stops working, emotion goes out the window.
Is This Really About Tech Sovereignty Anymore?
This is where things get genuinely fascinating to me.
When Europe threw its weight behind Eutelsat/OneWeb, the narrative was crystal clear: we cannot allow critical infrastructure – especially communications – to be 100% dependent on American companies. Fair point. National security implications are real.
But here’s the dirty secret nobody wants to admit: strategic autonomy doesn’t pay the bills.
You can have the most noble geopolitical goals in the world, but if your company keeps losing money while the competition prints it, eventually markets will punish you. And that’s exactly what’s happening now.
The French state’s 30% stake might keep Eutelsat afloat longer than pure market forces would allow, but it doesn’t change the fundamental economics of trying to compete with SpaceX’s vertical integration and relentless execution.
What Happens Next? Three Scenarios I’m Watching
Having watched how these space races play out before, here are the paths I see ahead:
- The Slow Bleed – Eutelsat limps along with government support, carving out niche government/maritime/aviation contracts while slowly losing hope of ever competing in consumer broadband.
- The Fire Sale – At some point, reality becomes undeniable and Eutelsat becomes an acquisition target. Amazon? China? Maybe even – in a twist would break European hearts – Starlink itself?
- The Miracle Turnaround – They pull off something genuinely revolutionary cost reductions or regulatory advantages that let them compete on price. (I’m not holding my breath, but stranger things have happened.)
My money’s unfortunately on door number one, with door number two becoming increasingly likely over the next 24 months.
The Bigger Lesson for Tech Investors
If there’s one takeaway from this whole saga, it’s this: infrastructure monopolies with massive scale advantages are absolutely brutal.
We saw it with Amazon in cloud computing. We’re seeing it with Tesla in EVs. And we’re watching it play out in real time with Starlink in satellite internet.
Once someone gets far enough ahead in a winner-takes-most market, catching up becomes less about technology and more about capital endurance. And nobody – nobody – has deeper pockets or more ruthless focus than Elon Musk when he smells total domination.
Europe’s dream of an independent satellite internet champion might not be dead yet. But Wednesday’s share price massacre felt an awful lot like another step toward the graveyard.
The stars certainly aren’t aligning for Eutelsat right now. Whether that’s the final chapter or just another plot twist… well, that’s why we keep watching.
