Have you ever watched a coin pump hard, felt that little rush of FOMO, and then… bam. Instant reversal. That’s exactly what happened to Aster this week, and honestly, it hurt to watch.
The price clawed its way back toward $1.10 like it actually meant business. For a hot second it looked like the sellers were finally exhausted. Then reality kicked in – hard. A sharp rejection, a cascade of red candles, and suddenly everyone is asking the same uncomfortable question: was that whole move just a classic dead-cat bounce?
I’ve been staring at this chart for days, and the more I zoom out, the worse it looks. Let me walk you through exactly why Aster is in a much trickier spot than most people realize.
The $1.10 Level Isn’t Just Resistance – It’s the Point of Control
First things first: $1.10 is not some random round number traders decided to defend because it looks pretty. It’s the point of control (POC) – the price level where the highest amount of volume has traded inside the current range.
Think of the POC as the “fairest price” the market has agreed on for the longest time. When price finally returns to it after a deviation, the reaction is usually violent in one direction or the other. Break and hold above? Bulls take over. Reject? Bears keep the keys.
Aster didn’t just tap $1.10 and gently roll over. It got smacked. The 6-hour candle that tested it closed as an almost perfect shooting star with a long upper wick – textbook distribution.
Volume Told the Whole Story Before Price Did
Here’s the part that keeps me up at night: the rally into $1.10 had some of the weakest buying volume I’ve seen all month.
Sure, the candles looked impulsive on lower timeframes. But switch to the volume profile or even just the plain volume bars and it’s painfully obvious – almost no one was committing real size on the way up. That’s short covering and retail chasing, not smart money accumulation.
Compare it to the previous breakdown out of the range back in late November. That move down was accompanied by a massive spike in volume. The recent “recovery” attempt? Barely a hiccup on the histogram. When upside moves happen on light volume and get rejected at a major level, history says you should be very, very worried.
- Breakdown from range: huge red volume bars
- Rally back to POC: anemic green volume
- Rejection candle: volume picks up… on the sell side
That right there is the fingerprint of a dead-cat bounce.
The Bearish Order Block Waiting Right Below
If losing $1.10 wasn’t bad enough, there’s another nasty surprise lurking just underneath.
Remember the last time Aster tried to rally in mid-November? Price topped out, left a big fair value gap, and then plunged. That entire zone – roughly $1.04-$1.07 – is now a bearish order block. Every time price has returned to it since, sellers have piled in without mercy.
We’re sitting inside that block right now. And guess what? Another rejection is already playing out. If this level flips from support to resistance (again), the path straight down to $0.92 suddenly looks wide open.
Bigger Picture Market Structure Still Screams Bearish
Zoom out to the daily or weekly chart and the story gets even uglier.
We’re still printing lower highs and lower lows – the very definition of a downtrend. Until Aster can close a weekly candle above $1.30 (the last major higher high), the bears remain in full control. Everything else is noise.
In a bear market, rallies are for selling. Simple as that.
– Old trading adage that never gets old
Right now Aster is doing exactly what bear markets love: giving traders hope, sucking in liquidity at key levels, then crushing it.
Where Could Price Head Next? The Realistic Scenarios
Let’s talk probabilities instead of hopium.
Bearish base case (70% in my view): We’re already seeing distribution at the POC + order block combo. A break and close below $1.00 opens the trapdoor to $0.92 rather quickly. That’s the high-timeframe demand zone that held multiple times earlier this year. If even that cracks, sub-$0.80 is back on the menu – ugly, but very possible.
Bullish counter-case (30% and fading): Bulls would need a miracle – specifically a violent squeeze with massive volume that takes out $1.10, flips it to support, and targets the next supply zone around $1.35. Possible? Technically yes. Likely right now? I wouldn’t bet the farm on it.
Frankly, the risk/reward for longing here is terrible unless you’re a scalper with tight stops.
On-Chain Noise vs. Price Action Truth
There was a brief moment of drama when some accounts claimed a huge Aster transfer linked to certain high-profile figures. On-chain analysts quickly debunked it – turns out it was routine movement, nothing burger.
The price didn’t care about the rumor when it circulated, and it doesn’t care about the debunking now. Pure technicals are driving this bus, and they’re pointing south.
What I’m Watching Over the Next 48-72 Hours
- Can bulls defend the $1.02-$1.04 zone (bottom of the current bearish order block)? A daily close below flips the short-term structure decisively bearish.
- Volume on any move lower – if we start seeing panic selling volume pick up again, $0.92 will arrive faster than most expect.
- Bitcoin’s behavior – a deeper BTC correction would drag every alt with it, Aster included.
Bottom line: until Aster proves it can trade and hold above $1.10 with real volume, I’m treating every bounce as a selling opportunity or at best a chance to move stops to breakeven.
Harsh? Maybe. But the chart doesn’t care about feelings, and neither should your risk management.
Stay safe out there.
