Let me be completely honest – when I saw Salesforce shares down almost 30% year-to-date heading into this print, I figured we were in for another disappointment. The narrative all year has been brutal: AI eating traditional CRM lunch, slower growth, margin pressure, you name it. Then the numbers hit the tape Wednesday after the bell and… well, sometimes the market just loves proving everyone wrong.
The headline is simple: Salesforce didn’t just beat, they crushed the quarter and handed investors something they desperately needed – a clear sign that the AI pivot is actually working.
The Quarter That Changed the Narrative
Here’s the part that made me sit up straight: adjusted earnings per share came in at $3.25. That’s not a rounding-error beat. That’s forty cents above what the Street was modeling. Revenue clocked in at $10.26 billion – technically a hair under the whisper number, but who cares when profitability is this strong?
More importantly, management didn’t hide behind conservative guidance like they have in recent quarters. They stepped up to the plate with a fourth-quarter outlook that genuinely surprised people to the upside.
Guidance That Actually Matters
For the current quarter (fiscal Q4), Salesforce is now calling for between $11.13 billion and $11.23 billion in revenue. That’s comfortably above the $10.9 billion consensus that analysts had been carrying. On the bottom line, they’re looking for $3.02 to $3.04 adjusted EPS – basically right in line, but the revenue beat is what moves stocks these days.
Do the math and you’re staring at 11-12% growth, with roughly three points coming from the freshly-closed Informatica acquisition. Strip that out and you’re still looking at high-single-digit organic growth in what’s supposed to be a “challenged” macro environment. Not bad for a company everyone was writing obituaries for six months ago.
Agentforce: From Hype to Half a Billion
Okay, let’s talk about the elephant in the room – or rather, the AI agent in the room.
Annualized revenue from Agentforce crossed $500 million in the third quarter. Let that sink in. This isn’t some vague “bookings” number or “pipeline” metric that companies love to throw around. This is actual recognized revenue, annualized, growing 330% year-over-year.
When a product grows triple digits and is already running at half-a-billion pace in its first real quarter out of the gate, you sit up and pay attention.
I’ve been skeptical about every “agentic AI” announcement this year – there’s been more hype than substance in most cases. But when you see these kinds of numbers attached to a product that literally automates sales and service workflows, it starts feeling real.
Why This Quarter Feels Different
Look, I’ve covered probably a dozen Salesforce earnings calls over the years. There’s usually a pattern: solid execution, some hand-wringing about the next quarter, stock trades sideways. This time felt different from the moment the press release dropped.
- Profitability way ahead of expectations
- Guidance raised meaningfully
- Concrete AI traction with real dollar figures attached
- A $60 billion fiscal 2030 revenue target that actually exceeds what most analysts were modeling
That last point deserves its own section.
The $60 Billion 2030 Target Nobody Saw Coming
During Dreamforce, management quietly dropped a long-term revenue goal of $60 billion by fiscal 2030. At the time, most people focused on the Agentforce announcements and kind of glossed over the number. In hindsight? That was the shot across the bow.
To hit $60 billion in five years, Salesforce would need to roughly double from current run-rate levels. Historically, that would have seemed insane. But layer in Agentforce adoption, the Informatica data platform, continued share gains in service and marketing cloud, plus whatever else they bolt on through acquisition? Suddenly it doesn’t look so crazy.
In my experience, when management starts throwing out big round numbers like that and then immediately backs it up with near-term execution, you want to pay attention.
The Stock Reaction Tells You Everything
As I’m writing this, shares are up about 8% in after-hours trading. That’s a $20 billion swing in market cap on a company that was left for dead by many investors just a few months ago.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect? The move isn’t even that dramatic in the grand scheme. The stock would still be down 20%+ for 2025 even after this pop. There’s so much pessimism baked in that a single good quarter with AI proof points was enough to trigger this kind of relief rally.
What Wall Street Is Saying Now
The upgrades started rolling in almost immediately. Analysts who’ve been pounding the table on “secular headwinds” and “AI displacement risk” all year are suddenly scrambling to update models. The Informatica contribution was already known, but the organic growth acceleration combined with Agentforce traction has forced a rethink.
One major bank raised their price target from $290 to $350 within minutes of the print. Another called Agentforce “the most compelling AI agent offering in enterprise software today.” Strong words for a product that barely existed a year ago.
The Bigger Picture for Enterprise AI
Here’s what keeps me up at night (in a good way): if Salesforce can generate half a billion in annualized revenue from AI agents this quickly, what does that mean for the rest of the enterprise software stack?
We’re not talking about co-pilots that highlight text anymore. We’re talking about autonomous agents that handle entire workflows – closing deals, resolving service tickets, routing leads. When these things start compounding across the Fortune 500 installed base that Salesforce already owns, the numbers get absurd fast.
I suspect we’re looking at one of those rare moments where the market has dramatically underestimated the speed and scale of AI disruption – but in the positive direction for once.
Risks That Still Linger
Let’s not get carried away. There are still real risks here.
- Execution risk on the Informatica integration
- Potential for economic slowdown impacting IT budgets
- Competition in the AI agent space is about to get ferocious
- Valuation is starting to matter again after this move
But for the first time in a long time, the risk/reward feels tilted in favor of the bulls rather than the bears.
The Bottom Line
Salesforce just delivered the kind of quarter that can change sentiment overnight. The combination of blowout profitability, raised guidance, and concrete proof that their AI strategy is gaining traction faster than anyone expected has flipped the script.
Whether this marks the bottom for the stock or just a dead-cat bounce remains to be seen. But one thing feels certain: dismissing Salesforce as a “yesterday’s winner” in the AI era looks increasingly foolish.
Sometimes the best investments are the ones everyone else has given up on. After Wednesday’s print, I’m not sure I’d bet against Marc Benioff and company proving the haters wrong – again.
