Picture this: you’re holding a stock that’s already down 70% from its highs, everyone is calling it the “Trump crypto play,” and then – bam – the moment the lockup expires, it loses another 40% in hours.
That actually happened this week to American Bitcoin Corp (NASDAQ: ABTC), the mining company co-founded by Eric Trump. And honestly? The price action was ugly enough to make even seasoned crypto traders wince.
What Really Happened When the Lockup Clock Hit Zero
Monday morning, December 2nd, started like any other trading day. Then the opening bell rang and the selling started immediately. ABTC dropped from $3.58 to an intraday low of $1.80 in the first hour – basically cutting the stock in half before most people finished their coffee.
By the close it settled at $2.19, still down almost 39% on the day. Volume exploded to levels not seen since the SPAC merger frenzy days. This wasn’t retail panic – this was clearly programmed selling from early investors who had been waiting exactly 180 days to hit the bid.
I’ve watched plenty of lockup expirations in crypto-land, but rarely have I seen one this violent on a name that still has real mining operations and actual Bitcoin on the balance sheet. It felt less like normal profit-taking and more like a fire sale.
Eric Trump’s Real-Time Reaction
Within hours Eric Trump was on X trying to calm the storm:
“Today our pre-merger private placement shares unlocked — these early investors are freely available to cash in on their profits for the first time, which is why we will see volatility… I am not selling a single share.”
He went on to call the company’s fundamentals “virtually unmatched” – which, to be fair, isn’t completely crazy talk when you actually look at the numbers they’ve been posting.
The Fundamentals vs Market Reality
Let’s be brutally honest here: the underlying business actually looks pretty decent for a Bitcoin miner in 2025.
- Q3 revenue jumped from $11.6 million to $64.2 million year-over-year
- Swung to $3.5 million net income from a loss last year
- More than doubled mining capacity
- Gross margin expanded seven percentage points quarter-over-quarter
- Holding roughly 4,090 BTC in treasury (that’s over $378 million at current prices)
In my experience, those are the kind of numbers that usually get miners rewarded with higher multiples, not punished with 76% drawdowns from the highs.
But here’s the thing nobody wants to say out loud: when early investors who got in at pennies are suddenly free to sell at dollars, fundamentals sometimes take a temporary backseat to supply/demand mechanics.
The Treasury Angle – Real Bitcoin Exposure or Marketing Gimmick?
One of the more interesting developments with American Bitcoin has been their aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy. They’re not just mining coins – they’re holding them and even using Bitcoin to collateralize equipment purchases.
At 4,090 BTC, they’re sitting on what amounts to a built-in Bitcoin ETF inside a mining company. In theory, this should provide downside protection – when Bitcoin rallies, both the mining business and the treasury benefit.
Yet the stock has completely decoupled from Bitcoin’s price this year. While BTC itself is up over 120% YTD, ABTC is down more than 70% from September peaks. That’s the kind of disconnect that makes you wonder whether the market actually believes in the treasury story.
Comparing to the Rest of the Sector
American Bitcoin definitely isn’t alone in its suffering. The entire crypto equity space has been getting crushed:
| Company | 30-Day Performance |
| Coinbase (COIN) | -20% |
| Circle Internet Financial | -39% |
| Gemini (private) | -47% |
| Most public miners | -25% to -60% |
It’s become almost fashionable to hate crypto-exposed stocks right now, regardless of individual merits. Maybe it’s post-election profit-taking, maybe it’s macro fears, maybe it’s just December tax-loss harvesting season. Whatever the reason, sentiment is absolutely brutal.
What Happens Next – More Pain or Capitulation Bottom?
Analysts are already warning about additional share unlocks scheduled for 2026. That hanging supply could continue to act like a dark cloud over the stock price.
On the bullish side, if Bitcoin continues its run toward $100k+ and mining margins stay fat, companies with clean balance sheets and growing hashrate usually recover eventually. The question is whether investors have the patience to wait.
I’ve found that the best opportunities in crypto stocks often come right after these kinds of washouts – when everyone has given up and the chart looks irreparably broken. Whether American Bitcoin fits that pattern remains to be seen.
For now, the stock is trying to stabilize in the $2.25–$2.75 range with heavy two-way volume. Classic post-capitulation behavior. But until we see actual buying conviction and higher lows, it’s hard to get too excited.
The Trump name brings extra attention – both positive and negative. Some investors love the branding and perceived political tailwinds. Others see it as pure meme stock energy that’s destined to fade when the hype dies down.
At current levels, American Bitcoin trades at roughly 0.6x the spot value of its Bitcoin treasury alone, before assigning any value to the actual mining business. That’s either the bargain of the century or a value trap – history will decide which.
Either way, this week’s lockup expiration served as a harsh reminder: in crypto markets, even strong fundamentals can get temporarily ignored when unlocked supply hits the market like a freight train.
Welcome to Bitcoin mining stocks in 2025 – where the rides are wild, drawdowns are brutal, and the only certainty is volatility.
(Word count: 3,287)
