Have you ever watched something that should happen… and then it just… doesn’t? That’s Bitcoin right now.
For weeks we’ve been hearing the same story: new all-time highs any day now, institutional money flooding in, $100k by Christmas. Yet here we are on December 4, 2025, and BTC is still stuck dancing under $94,000 like it’s glued to the floor. The longer this drags on, the more it starts feeling like that awkward moment when the music stops but nobody wants to admit the party’s over.
I’ve been trading crypto long enough to know that when price stalls this hard at a major psychological level, something has to give. Either we get the explosive breakout everyone is praying for, or we get the flush nobody wants to talk about. And right now? The evidence is tilting dangerously toward the second option.
The Resistance That Refuses to Break
Let’s start with the obvious: $94,000 isn’t just a random round number anymore. It’s become a fortress.
Every time Bitcoin touches this zone, the same thing happens. We see a quick spike of excitement, some leveraged longs pile in expecting the inevitable breakout, and then… rejection. Not just a polite “no thanks,” but a proper slap in the face that sends price tumbling back down into the $91-92k range where it licks its wounds before trying again.
The scary part? Each rejection is happening on weaker and weaker volume. The buyers who were aggressively defending this level a week ago are getting exhausted. You can almost feel the conviction draining out of the market in real time.
Why $94,000 Matters More Than You Think
This isn’t just about a pretty round number that looks good on charts. There’s serious confluence here that’s making this level particularly sticky.
- The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the entire move down from the previous all-time high
- The Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) from the recent accumulation phase
- A major daily and weekly resistance that’s been respected multiple times
- The psychological barrier that comes with being “so close” to six figures
When you get this many different technical factors lining up in the same place, you create what traders call a “brick wall” level. These are the zones where price can stall for days, sometimes weeks, before finally making its next big move.
The problem is that while Bitcoin is busy banging its head against this brick wall, the broader market structure is starting to look increasingly fragile.
The Volume Story Nobody Wants to Hear
If you’ve been watching spot volume (and you absolutely should be), you’ve probably noticed something concerning. The buying pressure that carried us from $70k to $94k has been steadily drying up.
We’re not seeing the kind of aggressive accumulation that typically precedes major breakouts. Instead, what we’re getting are these anemic bounces that fail to generate any real follow-through. It’s like watching someone try to start a fire with damp matches – lots of effort, very little flame.
In bull markets, volume should expand on upswings and contract on pullbacks. What we’re seeing now is the opposite – expanding volume on down days and shrinking volume on up days. That’s not bullish conviction. That’s distribution.
I’ve found that volume rarely lies. Price can fake out, indicators can give false signals, but volume tells you where the real money is moving. And right now, the real money appears to be taking profits or positioning defensively.
The Point of Control Danger Zone
One of the most under-appreciated tools in crypto trading is the Volume Profile, and it’s screaming caution right now.
The current Point of Control – the price level with the highest traded volume in the visible range – sits right around where we’re trading today. This is essentially the “fair value” area that the market has agreed on for the longest time.
When price loses the Point of Control on a closing basis, especially after an extended period of consolidation, it often leads to accelerated moves toward the next major volume node. In this case, that next significant volume support doesn’t show up until the $78,000-$80,000 region.
That’s a potential 15-20% drop from current levels. In crypto terms, that’s not just a healthy correction – that’s the kind of move that wipes out leveraged positions and shakes out weak hands.
What Would Change My Mind
Look, I’m not married to the bearish thesis here. Markets can surprise you, and Bitcoin has made a career out of proving people wrong.
If we start seeing certain things happen, I’d be quick to flip bullish again. The triggers I’m watching for:
- A decisive close above $94,000 with expanding volume
- Increasing spot demand, particularly from institutional-sized buyers
- Strength in Bitcoin dominance (showing money rotating back into BTC rather than altcoins)
- Positive developments in the macro environment (Fed pivot signals, etc.)
Until I see some combination of these factors, though, the risk/reward just doesn’t look favorable for new long positions at current levels.
The Psychological Factor Nobody Talks About
There’s something fascinating happening psychologically right now that I’ve observed in previous cycles.
When price gets this close to a major milestone ($100k in this case) but keeps failing to reach it, the collective frustration builds and builds. Everyone is positioned for the breakout. Everyone has their alerts set. Everyone is ready to ape in the moment we finally clear resistance.
But each failed attempt chips away at that conviction. The FOMO starts to fade. The “this time it’s different” narrative starts to crack. And when enough people reach that point of maximum frustration… that’s often exactly when the market decides to move in the opposite direction.
It’s cruel, it’s unfair, and it’s one of the most consistent patterns in trading psychology I’ve ever seen.
Where Support Actually Lies
If we do get the correction I’m increasingly expecting, where does price actually find support?
The $78,430 level that gets mentioned isn’t random. It’s the current channel low that’s held beautifully throughout this entire move up. It’s also where we have significant previous resistance that should now act as support, plus it’s right around the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally.
| Level | Type | Confluence |
| $78,430 | Major Support | Channel low + Fib level + Previous resistance |
| $82,000 | Intermediate | Volume node + 50-day moving average |
| $85,000 | Minor | Psychological + Recent breakout level |
In my experience, Bitcoin tends to be remarkably precise with these channel structures. When it finally commits to a move lower, it often travels the full width of the channel before finding buyers again.
The Bigger Picture Context
Stepping back for a moment, it’s worth remembering that even if we do see a significant correction here, it wouldn’t invalidate the broader bull market thesis.
Crypto bull markets are never straight lines. They breathe. They correct. They shake out the tourists before rewarding the patient. A move back to $78k would actually be remarkably healthy in the grand scheme of things – clearing out leverage, resetting sentiment, and setting up for the next leg higher.
The question isn’t whether Bitcoin is going to $100k and beyond eventually. The question is whether you’re going to have the capital and conviction to hold through the inevitable turbulence that gets us there.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin is at a crossroads right now, and the next few days are going to be revealing.
The bulls need to show up with real volume and conviction soon, or the bears are going to take control of this market in a way we haven’t seen in months. The setup for a significant correction is there – whether the market takes it remains to be seen.
Personally? I’m staying cautious until we get clarity. The potential downside just looks too asymmetric to be aggressively long here. Sometimes the smartest trade is the one you don’t take.
Whatever happens, remember that these moments of maximum uncertainty are often where the best opportunities are created. The people who manage their risk properly now are the ones who’ll be in position to capitalize when the real move finally comes.
Stay sharp out there.
