Picture this: you’ve spent years building the dominant castle in a brand-new kingdom, charging handsome tolls on every bridge, when suddenly the biggest empire on the continent announces it’s opening its own free highways straight into your territory.
That’s pretty much where Coinbase finds itself right now.
The stock was drifting lower again on December 4th, slipping another 1.3% while the broader market barely blinked. At around $186, COIN is now roughly 40% off its July peak near $400. And the whispers in trading circles aren’t about Bitcoin hitting $100k anymore — they’re about whether America’s favorite discount broker is about to eat Coinbase’s lunch.
The Giant Waking Up: Charles Schwab Steps In
When a company managing almost $12 trillion in client assets and serving 38 million brokerage accounts decides to flip the crypto switch, people notice.
Charles Schwab confirmed this week that spot Bitcoin and Ethereum trading lands in January 2026 for its retail clients. More coins will follow later. That timeline might feel distant, but in brokerage land, that’s tomorrow.
Here’s what keeps me up at night when I think about Coinbase’s moat: Schwab already charges zero commissions on stocks, ETFs, and options. Most traditional brokers still can’t believe they actually did that. If they bring anything close to that pricing aggression to crypto, the fee party Coinbase has enjoyed for years could be over fast.
“We knew this was coming, big q tho: What is the fee? Schwab has free ETF and stock trading. If crypto also free, look out $COIN.”
– Eric Balchunas, Senior ETF Analyst at Bloomberg
Even a modest 30-50 basis point spread would undercut Coinbase’s current retail take-rate dramatically. And remember — Schwab’s average client is older, wealthier, and far stickier than the crypto-native crowd chasing memes on decentralized exchanges.
It’s Not Just Schwab — The Walls Are Closing In
SoFi quietly turned its crypto offering back on after pausing in 2023. Over 12 million customers can now trade Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a handful of altcoins inside the same app where they already refinance student loans and trade Tesla options. Convenience is a hell of a drug.
Robinhood never really left the game and keeps grabbing younger users. Fidelity already offers Bitcoin and Ethereum to its retirement accounts and has teased broader rollout. Interactive Brokers, TD Ameritrade alumni now under Schwab anyway, have crypto on the roadmap too.
Even international heavyweights smell blood in the water. With the Trump administration signaling a friendlier regulatory posture, expect OKX, Binance.US (or whatever it ends up being called), and others to push harder for licenses again.
Coinbase isn’t just defending one flank — it’s getting surrounded.
The Revenue Math That Should Scare COIN Bulls
Let’s talk numbers, because this is where the story gets ugly.
Wall Street expects Coinbase Q4 revenue around $1.96 billion — that’s actually a 13.5% drop year-over-year despite Bitcoin trading 50% higher than last December. Q1 2026 estimates sit at $2.03 billion, basically flat.
Earnings per share? Analysts see $8.08 in 2025 sliding to $6.85 in 2026. That’s the direction you don’t want when your stock still trades at 22 times forward earnings after a 40% haircut.
- Trading volume gets spread across more venues → lower market share
- Competitors undercut fees → lower take-rate
- Regulatory tailwinds help everyone, not just Coinbase
- Institutional custody (the “good” revenue) grows slower than retail trading
In my view, the base case for 2026 is mid-single-digit revenue growth at best, with margins compressing hard if Schwab or Fidelity go aggressive on pricing. That’s not the growth story people paid for at $400.
Technical Chart: Ugly Patterns Forming
Step away from the headlines for a second and just look at the daily chart. It’s not pretty.
COIN has fallen below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2025 rally. More importantly, the $290 zone — which acted as rock-solid support through August and September — is now resistance. Price wicked above it briefly in November and has been rejected ever since.
The 50-day EMA is about to cross below the 200-day EMA. Yes, the dreaded death cross is queuing up. I know, I know — “death crosses are lagging indicators.” True. But they lag because the damage is usually already done by the time they print.
Next major support sits around $200, then the psychological $150 zone after that. A break-and-retest of $290 as new resistance would confirm the bear case and likely open the path lower.
What Could Save Coinbase?
Look, I’m not saying Coinbase is going to zero. Far from it. They still have the strongest brand in U.S. crypto, the deepest regulatory moat (for now), and the only meaningful institutional custody business that’s actually profitable.
International expansion, Base layer-2 revenue, stablecoin issuance (USDC), and potential staking derivatives could all become bigger drivers over time. A full-blown spot ETF approval for Solana or XRP would obviously help too.
But here’s the harsh reality: retail trading has been the profit engine, and that engine is about to face the fiercest price competition it has ever seen.
The Bottom Line for Investors
Coinbase stock faces a perfect storm in 2026: maturing competition, potential fee compression, slowing growth estimates, and a chart that looks increasingly broken.
If Schwab (or Fidelity, or Robinhood) announces anything close to zero-fee crypto trading, the reaction in COIN could be violent. Even a 50 bps all-in fee would force Coinbase to choose between margin collapse or losing volume fast.
For now, $200 feels like the line in the sand. Hold that level and maybe the bulls get another shot on pure crypto euphoria. Lose it, and the path to $150-$170 opens up quickly.
Either way, the era of Coinbase printing money with almost no serious competition is ending. The question isn’t whether the landscape gets harder — it’s how much harder, and how fast.
Buckle up.
