Remember that moment when Bitcoin touched $94K last week and everyone thought “this is it, new all-time highs incoming”? Yeah, me too. Then it got smacked back down faster than you can say “distribution phase.” Fast forward a few days and here we are again – grinding higher, teasing the same zone that’s been laughing in bulls’ faces for weeks. Only this time, some respected voices in the trading community are saying the next move really matters.
I’ve been following the charts pretty obsessively (probably more than is healthy), and right now Bitcoin is pressing right up against what might be the most important resistance confluence of the entire cycle. Miss it, and we could be looking at a painful lower high. Nail it, and the path to six figures before year-end suddenly looks wide open.
The $98K–$100K Zone Isn’t Just Another Round Number
Let’s get one thing straight – $100K has never been “just psychological.” In this cycle it’s become a brutal technical graveyard.
Multiple lower highs have printed right in that area since the top near $125K. A major daily downtrend line that started way back at the all-time high is converging exactly there. The previous major support (now resistance) from earlier in the year lines up perfectly too. And of course, there’s the yearly open sitting smack in the middle of the range. When that many things stack up in the same place, you don’t ignore it – you respect it.
Honestly, I’ve rarely seen a cleaner setup for a make-or-break moment. It almost feels scripted.
What the Higher Timeframes Are Whispering
Zoom out to the weekly chart and the story gets even clearer. We put in what looks like a pretty solid cycle low around $80K after that nasty shakeout. Higher lows have been forming ever since – classic bullish behavior after a correction. But until we reclaim that $98K–$100K band and flip it into support, the macro downtrend that started at the top remains completely intact.
That’s the part a lot of perma-bulls seem to gloss over. Breaking an aggressive multi-month downtrend isn’t something that just “happens” because sentiment flipped positive for a week. It needs conviction, volume, and follow-through.
“I still put 70-80% odds on a lower high rather than fresh ATHs… unless we cleanly reclaim $98K+. Then those odds drop fast.”
A widely followed independent analyst, December 2025
Shorter-Term Structure Actually Looks Decent (For Now)
Switch over to the 4-hour or daily and things get more encouraging. We’ve broken the near-term bearish trend line that kept capping rallies for weeks. Higher lows are stacking up nicely. The price action since the $80K low has been textbook “impulse higher, controlled pullback, continuation.”
If you’re a swing trader, there have already been some really clean long setups. I took a couple myself and they worked out beautifully. But – and this is a big but – we still haven’t printed a higher high on the 4-hour yet. Until that happens, the short-term bullish structure is probationary at best.
- Higher lows ✓
- Broken short-term downtrend ✓
- Reclaimed key moving averages ✓
- Higher high on H4? …Still waiting
That last checkbox is everything right now.
Two Scenarios Playing Out Over the Next Week
Scenario 1 – The Clean Breakout (What Bulls Want)
Price respects the rising trendline support on any pullback, consolidates briefly under $98K without wicked downside, then rips straight through $100K on expanding volume. Ideally we see some weekend gap or overnight move so retail doesn’t have time to pile in at the perfect level (because that’s usually when it reverses). A move like that would flip the entire higher-timeframe structure and probably ignite the kind of FOMO that carries us well past previous highs before anyone catches their breath.
Scenario 2 – The Bear Flag (What Usually Happens at Cycle Tops)
We get choppy, multi-week consolidation right under the yearly open. Lots of fakeouts above $96K–$97K followed by sweeps of lows. Volume dries up on the upside attempts. Eventually the rising trendline breaks and we roll over hard, confirming the lower high and opening the door to sub-$70K retests pretty quickly.
I’ve watched this movie before. More times than I care to admit.
Macro Tailwinds Are Lining Up – But Timing Is Everything
One thing that’s different this time versus previous rejection attempts: the broader liquidity picture is turning friendly again. The Fed’s QT program is winding down. Dollar strength looks exhausted after rejecting key resistance multiple times. Big institutions that were previously barred from spot Bitcoin ETFs are suddenly getting approval to buy (yes, even some of the “old money” giants).
Those are real fundamental catalysts. But markets love to front-run good news and then disappoint everyone anyway. The question is whether there’s still enough dry powder left to actually push us through resistance when it matters, or if most of the “good news” has already been priced in during the move from $80K.
Personal Positioning and Risk Management
Full disclosure – I’m still long spot from the low $80Ks, but I’ve been scaling out aggressively on every push toward $94K+. My plan is simple: if we somehow blast through $100K with conviction, I’ll let a runner go and trail stops. If we show any meaningful rejection in the $98K–$102K area, I’m out completely and looking for shorts.
Why? Because even in the most bullish scenario, I think whatever high we put in during Q1 2026 becomes the cycle top. Selling strength into six figures and waiting for the eventual bear market has treated me extremely well in previous cycles. I see no reason to get greedy now.
“Any sign of weakness at the yearly open, 98K, 100K, or even 105–110K – derisk immediately. A bear market is just an inverted bull market.”
Final Thoughts – Bulls Still Have Work to Do
Look, I want $100K+ as much as the next degenerate. There’s something magical about round numbers, especially when they come with life-changing gains. But wanting something and the price action actually delivering are two very different things.
Right now the bears still hold the structural advantage. That only changes with a decisive close above $100K and follow-through. Until then, every rally needs to be treated as suspect – no matter how many green candles we string together or how many analysts call for $150K by March.
The next few days (maybe weeks) will tell us whether this cycle still has one more parabolic leg left… or if the party ended months ago and we’re all just slow to realize it.
Either way, the $98K–$100K zone is where the real adults separate themselves from the hopium crowd. Watch it like your portfolio depends on it.
Because it probably does.
